Athlon Sports: Big Ten Predictions 2016

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

My interpretation of your comments is that it is not luck when fortunate things happened to allow MSU and Iowa to win, but it was luck when MSU lost to Nebraska. Strange that you only refer to luck when it refutes results that don't support your position but luck is irrelevant if your position is supported by the results. But going with that thought for a moment, a "good team" would never have allowed themselves to be in a position to lose on a "bad call" in the closing minute of the game against a substandard team that finished 6-7. MSU was the textbook definition of a "pretender" last year.

The fact is that "luck" is a huge element in the results of football games. There is a huge element of luck to turnovers. Even if you "force" a fumble, the element of luck almost always is the primary factor in determining which team recovers. With a significantly large sample size, almost any coach, team or whatever doesn't a whole lot better or worse than 50% in games decided by one score or less. Why is that? Because the element of luck ends up being the prevailing factor in a majority of one score games and you can't escape that.

Anecdotally, there are teams every year that are labeled pretenders vs. contenders. Both Iowa and MSU were pretenders last year. They were both better than average, but nowhere near as good as their results dictated. MSU got extraordinarily lucky in a number of games and was 5-1 in games decided by one score or less (against a bunch of substandard teams). Iowa got lucky in a number of different ways (fortunate turnovers, easy conference schedule, etc).

No that's not what I was saying at all. I was being sarcastic because by your standards it should be luck that NU won that game vs MSU. My stance is that it was not. Unbelievable that you couldn't catch on after all that I said. Sad. Really sad.

I no way think it was "luck" for NU to win the game. But again, based off your comments by MSU being lucky, and Iowa being lucky, then that ultimately means NU was "LUCKKKKKKY"

But......I'm saying that it's not "luck" in any of those games.

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

Can you explain what play you are talking about?

You know.

It's been widely discussed here, on ESPN, and I actually posted the rule from the rulebook in a thread right after the game. The unfortunate thing is that based on the rule of "forcing" out...the applied force is the thing in question and ultimately judged by the official. It was something that could go either way. But, it was not "luck"

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

Bolded 1 - This is funny. Not because its untrue, but because that's the completely wrong word to use in what you are trying to say. Michigan State was good, but not Bama good and if anyone thought that going into their bowl game they might need their brain examined. Exposed. Ha! Steph Curry is getting exposed. Being exposed is when you get shown that you really aren't that great but you give the illusion that you are. MSU was not great, and they didn't give an illusion that they were either.

Bolded 2 - While I agree this situation is probably the most rare/bizarre of any final play I've ever seen. You are supposed to execute for 60 minutes. Michigan didn't. They lost and it's the game of football. You never know. The returner could have taken it to the house as well.

Bolded 3 - It's funny how this is the default "go to " for a spectator. Instead of talking about what MSU did well to contain OSU's offense. Lets say that *Insert Coach X here* or in this case Tim Beck sabotaged the game when we have no idea what their game plan was. Elliot was mad, and even Urban made some comments about play calling...I get that. However you ARE saying that OSU should beat MSU 10/10 times? Upsets happen, they aren't always luck. Actually they are never luck. Luck would be to go in with ZERO PREPARATION and pull out a victory by picking random plays out of a hat.

Bolded 4 - It's luck because human beings made an error by not holding on to the football? Or that the center stepped on the QB's foot? Was it luck that TxTech recovered LeKevin Smith's fumble after an INT back in 2005? Or was TxTech given the opportunity to capitalize on an NU players idiotic mistake? I will give you a hint. It wasn't luck.

MSU vs NU comment - I suppose it can't be called luck that NU got away with an illegal play (unflagged) to essentially win the game right? After all, the rest of the things you've described as luck were the exact same kind of thing that happened for NU to win that MSU game. Because you know football is a game of luck. It can be any one random play in the game.

Can you explain what play you are talking about?

Brandon Reilly ran out of bounds to avoid being pressed by the CB and then came back in bounds to catch the TD pass. Yes, I know the officials ruled that we was "forced out", but even if he was "forced out" Reilly is supposed to try and get back in bounds ASAP. Reilly ran down the sideline out of bounds, and then came back in to catch it.

I understand the officials ruled one thing, but even being a Husker fan, that was a lucky call for NU.

 

[Saunders]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Except that Iowa was 12-1 and NU was 6-7 and got to a bowl game on a technicality.

Good thing all of that matters in the grand scheme of things though.

20 years from now, hell, 10 years from now no one is going to give a freaking S#%t about that crap (NU fan will I guess). They will see that Iowa was 12-1 on the year and lost in a major bowl game.

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Except that Iowa was 12-1 and NU was 6-7 and got to a bowl game on a technicality.

Good thing all of that matters in the grand scheme of things though.

20 years from now, hell, 10 years from now no one is going to give a freaking S#%t about that crap (NU fan will I guess). They will see that Iowa was 12-1 on the year and lost in a major bowl game.

Nope.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

So when other teams in our division win, they got lucky, but when they lose, that's what should have happened, and when we win we deserve it, and when we lose, our opponents just got lucky because they shouldn't have beaten us.

Nope, didn't say that. There was definitely an element of luck in our win over MSU (and that's unrelated to the "bad call" debate). Similarly, there was a huge element of luck in a number of wins by MSU and Iowa. Conversely, however, wouldn't say luck had much to do with Iowa's loss to Stanford or MSU's loss to Alabama.

 

[Scratchtown]

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

So when other teams in our division win, they got lucky, but when they lose, that's what should have happened, and when we win we deserve it, and when we lose, our opponents just got lucky because they shouldn't have beaten us.

Nope, didn't say that. There was definitely an element of luck in our win over MSU (and that's unrelated to the "bad call" debate). Similarly, there was a huge element of luck in a number of wins by MSU and Iowa. Conversely, however, wouldn't say luck had much to do with Iowa's loss to Stanford or MSU's loss to Alabama.

Luck either exists or it doesn't. You can't have both.

I was under the impression that football was about who executes the schemes best.

Is it good talent/scheme/execution every time Nebraska makes a good play on offense or is it "luck" that the defense didn't defend better?

I'm sure its only good when NU makes a good play and lucky for everyone else. amirite?

 

[Savage Husker]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

People sometimes call me an Iowa apologist on here because I call out the baseless and pointless sh#t talking about them. They were a really good team that played their style of football, played the schedule they were given, and didn't go 12-0 by accident. That championship game against MSU was an incredible slugfest.

They deserved what they received and earned their place by playing clean football and creating opportunities. I would like to have a season like theirs. However, I just believe they were the worst of the "best" and I don't think they can replicate, nor build off last season.

I don't think they will replicate 12-0, but I think they get to 10 wins which will most likely get them to the CC Game. I would much rather the Huskers be the "worst of the best" than the "best of the worst" like last season....

I would rather that be the case too. I think Iowa got a lot out of their players, for who would be considered average talent, and had a good run.

 

[Savage Husker]

They deserved what they received and earned their place by playing clean football and creating opportunities. I would like to have a season like theirs. However, I just believe they were the worst of the "best" and I don't think they can replicate, nor build off last season.

That's fine, but did you think they could go 12-0 last season? Yeah, me neither.

I mean, I don't 100% understand what you're getting at here, so I'm not sure how to respond and end up missing your point. Do you think they'll go 12-0 again this year? I sure as heck don't think so.

 

[Mavric]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

And Purdue was barely a Top 100 team that would barely have been a Top 10 in FCS. But they were running the Huskers off the field for a lot of the game. They also played Michigan State tough.

There is not a lot of difference between most FCS teams. The top five or so are probably a cut above and the bottom 20 or so are pretty bad. But most of the rest of the team can be at least competitive with each other on any given day.

Good teams find a way to win. Bad teams find a way to lose.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Having MSU on the ropes last year was not all that impressive. MSU got exposed against Alabama. They beat Michigan only because of a miracle on the final play. They beat OSU only because the game was played in a monsoon and Tim Beck decided not to give the ball to his Heisman candidate running back. They lost to our 6-7 team.

Iowa should have lost to Wisconsin also but for some incredible luck in getting turnovers deep inside the red zone. Iowa's most impressive win was probably against Northwestern. If you're most impressive win is against Northwestern (which didn't really look that great last year despite beating our 6-7 Nebraska team by 2 points).

So yes, by a combination of schedule and fortunate bounces, Iowa definitely got lucky last year to finish the regular season undefeated.

So when other teams in our division win, they got lucky, but when they lose, that's what should have happened, and when we win we deserve it, and when we lose, our opponents just got lucky because they shouldn't have beaten us.

Nope, didn't say that. There was definitely an element of luck in our win over MSU (and that's unrelated to the "bad call" debate). Similarly, there was a huge element of luck in a number of wins by MSU and Iowa. Conversely, however, wouldn't say luck had much to do with Iowa's loss to Stanford or MSU's loss to Alabama.

Luck either exists or it doesn't. You can't have both.
I was under the impression that football was about who executes the schemes best.

Is it good talent/scheme/execution every time Nebraska makes a good play on offense or is it "luck" that the defense didn't defend better?

I'm sure its only good when NU makes a good play and lucky for everyone else. amirite?

I clearly said luck always exists and is a factor. It is generally only the deciding factor, however, in close games. Like MSU beating Michigan with a miraculously lucky final play. Luck was present, but not the deciding factor when MSU got blown out by Alabama or when Iowa got blown out by Stanford.

 

[Saunders]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Except that Iowa was 12-1 and NU was 6-7 and got to a bowl game on a technicality.

Good thing all of that matters in the grand scheme of things though.

20 years from now, hell, 10 years from now no one is going to give a freaking S#%t about that crap (NU fan will I guess). They will see that Iowa was 12-1 on the year and lost in a major bowl game.

Nope.

Then you're just being obtuse and fail to have a basic understanding of what advanced stats and power metrics actually do.

 

[famoustitles]

I don't believe in luck. 😎

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.
FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Except that Iowa was 12-1 and NU was 6-7 and got to a bowl game on a technicality.

Good thing all of that matters in the grand scheme of things though.

20 years from now, hell, 10 years from now no one is going to give a freaking S#%t about that crap (NU fan will I guess). They will see that Iowa was 12-1 on the year and lost in a major bowl game.

Nope.

Then you're just being obtuse and fail to have a basic understanding of what advanced stats and power metrics actually do.

You can say whatever you want. It's garbage. Football isn't played on paper. All of that crap can say that a team is the best in every category and that team can still lose a game to another that is way down the line.

So. Again. NOPE.

 

[Scratchtown]

Iowa was lucky? They had MSU on the freaking ropes in a huge game where both teams had something to play for.

They laid an egg against stanford, so what?

I hate Iowa but damn let's be honest here. They weren't overly impressive but neither was 2002 ohio state all year that year.

Don't let emotion cloud reality and judgement

We aren't. All the advanced stats and power rankings show that Iowa was closer to a top 40 ranked team than a top 10 ranked team.

FEI: http://www.bcftoys.com/2015-fei

F+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus

S&P+: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

FPI: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2016/team/

Nebraska and Iowa weren't that much different teams last year, other than turnover margin.

Except that Iowa was 12-1 and NU was 6-7 and got to a bowl game on a technicality.

Good thing all of that matters in the grand scheme of things though.

20 years from now, hell, 10 years from now no one is going to give a freaking S#%t about that crap (NU fan will I guess). They will see that Iowa was 12-1 on the year and lost in a major bowl game.

Nope.

Then you're just being obtuse and fail to have a basic understanding of what advanced stats and power metrics actually do.

Name calling?

Is that the nice way of calling some one stupid?

I just served a 7 day suspension for that. Maybe I should use the word "obtuse" instead of idiot next time.... Where's AR Husker at?

BTW...I'm being sarcastic. Although its a little annoying how using words that are literally synonyms for the word "stupid" are allowed but the actual word itself isn't.