B1G and Conference expansion?

[VectorVictor]

This did not pan out like you thought. All 3 tiers of the ACC are worth $17MM, and that is after a lot of ramping up. Anyone leaving the ACC gets over $3MM more from this, plus maybe $4MM from tier 3, plus money from this new SEC bowl, plus likely share of national final four Money, plus additional funds from base contract if big draws are added and a championship game is put back, etc.... I think they are looking at $10MM or more, maybe $15MM, than if they stay in the ACC when you look at all the funds. Obviously a lot of this is speculation, but the Big 12's financial situation is good and getting incredibly better fast.

Nope, you're right. I was telling another poster here in PMs, the ACC commish should be fired for incompetence IMO. The ACC footprint has a substantially better media market overall than the Big XII and a better league from top to bottom (whereas the current Big XII is rather top-heavy). The only reason the ACC got less is because they settled for less and were rather myopic about the big picture, especially for their upper-echelon programs.

Florida State and Clemson are gone. To where, I don't know--but at this point, since we're talking anywhere from a $5-10 million/year difference between the ACC and the Big XII, B1G, Pac-12, or SEC, that adds up fast if you're a Florida State or Clemson having to recruit against *all* of the SEC schools that are making more than you annually.

I do wonder if Miami will be able to land somewhere--they are staring down the barrel of some pretty serious sanctions when all is said and done, and they'll likely be a liability in the short term to any conference that picks them up. Long term, they could pay dividends, but if you're in any of the power 4 conferences, would you want your conference to float them for 5-7 years until sanctions are over and they can get back on their feet again?

Would recruiting in Florida be worth all of that heartburn in the short term from picking up Miami? Personally, I wouldn't think so, but I'd like to hear what you folks think.

---

And Jayhawk, last I knew, Kansas was still keeping their options open in case they needed to land somewhere. I frankly think they're on the short list of available teams if the B1G wants to go to 14.

As for media rights, I know in the Big XII they now all belong to the conference (save for 3rd tier), but in those discussions, there was a structured buyout or penalty put in place. Remember that Missouri already signed away media rights, and they had a buyout similar to what Nebraska paid. aTm didn't sign on with that deal, IIRC, and they still paid about the same as Missouri.

I believe that had aTm signed on, they would have had a more expensive penalty, and had Missouri *not* signed over rights to the Big XII, their penalty would had likely been more along the lines of what Colorado paid.

---

As for Maryland, Syracuse, V. Tech, and the like, I could see Maryland or V. Tech to grab the Baltimore and DC area, but I don't think V. Tech will leave unless the ACC begins to collapse. Plus, I don't honestly see V. Tech as a cultural fit--something important to the B1G.

Personally, I wouldn't be shocked in seeing is Delaney and the B1G offering Florida State and another school (Notre Dame, Pitt, Kansas) to go to 14. The B1G can offer more money and exposure than the Big XII will ever posses, Florida has three significant media markets that the Big Ten Network would love to add to their home footprint, and FSU and the B1G both have a common enemy in the SEC. FSU has a built-in historical rival in Nebraska. Plus, the Big Ten Network can deploy right away, compared to the year or more of setup to get a FSU Big XII 3rd tier network on the air in Florida, not to mention the costs involved.

And remember that Delaney did make some statements about wanting a more southern presence for the B1G...I can't think of a better, more available, and willing southern presence for the B1G than Florida State.

 

[jayhawk]

I think we signed over our media rights (along with everyone else) for 6 years. We are all about to sign a 13 year version, so we appear rooted where we are.

I think the Big would wait for the ACC to fall in the crapper and grab UNC and another partner (UVA or Marlyand, maybe both). UNC is a great school, great basketball, flagship in a huge and growing state and one of the best Public Schools in the country. I think that is where Delany will go, but he has to wait for the ACC to fall apart ot the point where UNC would do it. THat may be coming this summer...

 

[Excel]

If forced to 16, the Big 10's top priorities should look like this -

1. Notre Dame (grabs large share of NY market and strengthens national market)

2. Virginia Tech (large share of DC market)

3.* (if VT is off the board) Maryland (DC market)

4. Ga. Tech (Atlanta market)

5.* Syracuse &/or Rutgers (more NY market)

Others to consider

- Boston College (great academics and Boston market)

- North Carolina (basketball + solid national following, great academics)

- Pitt (Despite already having the Pennsylvania market, they still have a solid athletics program)

- Virginia (DC market again)

I think we need to be careful about overly focusing on markets in all this...after all the ACC and Big East have some what-would-seem-to-be awesome markets and look where it got them...

Big East

Cincinatti - Cincinatti OH (34)

Connecticut - Hartford/New Haven CT (30)

Louisville - Louisville KY (50)

Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh PA (23)

Rutgers - New York NY, (1)

USF - Tampa - St. Petersburgh FL (13)

Syracuse - Rochester NY (80), Albany (57), Syracuse (81), Buffalo (51)

West Virginia - Charleston (65)

ACC

Boston College - Boston (7)

Clemson - Greenville (36)

Duke - We'll say that they split Charlotte (24), Raleigh (27), Greensboro (46) and Tri Cities (92) with UNC, Duke and WF

Florida State - Pensacola (60)

Georgia Tech - Atlanta (8)

Maryland - Baltimore (26) and DC (9)

Miami - Miami (16)

North Carolina - See Duke

North Carolina State - See Duke

Virginia - Richmond (58) Norfolk (43) Roanoke (67)

Virginia Tech - See UVA

Wake Forest - See Duke

SEC

Alabama - Birmingham (40) Huntsville (82) and Mobile (60) with Auburn

Auburn - Birmingham (40) Huntsville (82) and Mobile (60) with Bama, Atlanta (8) with UGA

Florida - Jacksonville (47)

Georgia - Atlanta (8) Savannah (96)

Kentucky - Lexington (63) Paducah (78)

LSU - Baton Rouge (95) Shreveport (84) and New Orleans (53)

Miss. - Memphis (48) Jackson (90) with MSU

Miss St - See Ole Miss

Tennessee - Nashville (29), Memphis (48) Knoxville (59) Chattanooga (86)

Vanderbilt - Nashville (29)

Arkansas - Fayetteville (100) Little Rock (56)

South Carolina - Columbia (79) Charleston (99)

Big Ten

Illinois - Chicago (3) Champaign (83)

Indiana - Indianapolis (25)

Iowa - Des Moines (71) Davenport (97)

Michigan - Detroit (11) Grand Rapids (39) Flint (66)

Michigan State - Detroit (11) Grand Rapids (39) Flint (66)

Minnesota - Minneapolis/St. Paul (15)

Nebraska - Omaha (76)

Northwestern - Chicago (3)

Ohio State - Toledo (73) Dayton (64) Columbus (32) Cincy (34) Cleveland (17)

Penn State - Pittsburgh (23) Philadelphia (4) Scranton (54)

Purdue - Indianapolis (25)

Wisconsin - Milwaukee (35) Madison (85) Green Bay/Appleton (70)

 

[huKSer]

Radio talking head in KC was slobbering over FSU and ND on the verge of joining the already best in the country conference Big 12.

Oh, yeah, two years ago the same guy said that Missouri was a lock to be the next member of the Big Ten

 

[HuskerShark]

I just wish this realignment stuff would stop right now. There is no need to go too extreme, and I am glad that the B1G hasn't made any impulse moves of trying to add more teams just because everybody else is doing it. I say we don't add any teams unless Notre Dame decides they want to join, and then we can go out and grab a team to even out the divisions.

 

[Excel]

Radio talking head in KC was slobbering over FSU and ND on the verge of joining the already best in the country conference Big 12.

Oh, yeah, two years ago the same guy said that Missouri was a lock to be the next member of the Big Ten

I think I know the guy you're talking about, KC and surrounding Kansas sportstalk is some of the dumbest I've heard in the country. :hmmph

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

This did not pan out like you thought. All 3 tiers of the ACC are worth $17MM, and that is after a lot of ramping up. Anyone leaving the ACC gets over $3MM more from this, plus maybe $4MM from tier 3, plus money from this new SEC bowl, plus likely share of national final four Money, plus additional funds from base contract if big draws are added and a championship game is put back, etc.... I think they are looking at $10MM or more, maybe $15MM, than if they stay in the ACC when you look at all the funds. Obviously a lot of this is speculation, but the Big 12's financial situation is good and getting incredibly better fast.

Nope, you're right. I was telling another poster here in PMs, the ACC commish should be fired for incompetence IMO. The ACC footprint has a substantially better media market overall than the Big XII and a better league from top to bottom (whereas the current Big XII is rather top-heavy). The only reason the ACC got less is because they settled for less and were rather myopic about the big picture, especially for their upper-echelon programs.

Florida State and Clemson are gone. To where, I don't know--but at this point, since we're talking anywhere from a $5-10 million/year difference between the ACC and the Big XII, B1G, Pac-12, or SEC, that adds up fast if you're a Florida State or Clemson having to recruit against *all* of the SEC schools that are making more than you annually.

I do wonder if Miami will be able to land somewhere--they are staring down the barrel of some pretty serious sanctions when all is said and done, and they'll likely be a liability in the short term to any conference that picks them up. Long term, they could pay dividends, but if you're in any of the power 4 conferences, would you want your conference to float them for 5-7 years until sanctions are over and they can get back on their feet again?

Would recruiting in Florida be worth all of that heartburn in the short term from picking up Miami? Personally, I wouldn't think so, but I'd like to hear what you folks think.

---

And Jayhawk, last I knew, Kansas was still keeping their options open in case they needed to land somewhere. I frankly think they're on the short list of available teams if the B1G wants to go to 14.

As for media rights, I know in the Big XII they now all belong to the conference (save for 3rd tier), but in those discussions, there was a structured buyout or penalty put in place. Remember that Missouri already signed away media rights, and they had a buyout similar to what Nebraska paid. aTm didn't sign on with that deal, IIRC, and they still paid about the same as Missouri.

I believe that had aTm signed on, they would have had a more expensive penalty, and had Missouri *not* signed over rights to the Big XII, their penalty would had likely been more along the lines of what Colorado paid.

---

As for Maryland, Syracuse, V. Tech, and the like, I could see Maryland or V. Tech to grab the Baltimore and DC area, but I don't think V. Tech will leave unless the ACC begins to collapse. Plus, I don't honestly see V. Tech as a cultural fit--something important to the B1G.

Personally, I wouldn't be shocked in seeing is Delaney and the B1G offering Florida State and another school (Notre Dame, Pitt, Kansas) to go to 14. The B1G can offer more money and exposure than the Big XII will ever posses, Florida has three significant media markets that the Big Ten Network would love to add to their home footprint, and FSU and the B1G both have a common enemy in the SEC. FSU has a built-in historical rival in Nebraska. Plus, the Big Ten Network can deploy right away, compared to the year or more of setup to get a FSU Big XII 3rd tier network on the air in Florida, not to mention the costs involved.

And remember that Delaney did make some statements about wanting a more southern presence for the B1G...I can't think of a better, more available, and willing southern presence for the B1G than Florida State.

This is starting to sound like the beginnings of WWI.

 

[VectorVictor]

This is starting to sound like the beginnings of WWI.

I hope this doesn't make Jumbo Fisher the Archduke Ferdinand...

Is BYU a possibility for the PAC-12? I agree that Boise St. really wouldn't add to the Pac-12 in anything but football and even that might be a reach. With TCU gone to the Big 12 (probably to stay) the PAC-12 is stuck!

BYU has a Mormon problem--this is why they won't get a Pac-12 invite unless hell freezes over. Unless something changed when the Pac-10 went to 12, it has to be a unanimous decision to add. The California schools would object and have done so (vehemently) when this was brought up in the past. It's a non-starter.

And BYU's refusal to travel or play on Sundays was why the talks between the Big XII and BYU failed as well. Frankly, they're at risk of being left behind if the requirement for a conference title is in place.

---

As for teams that the Pac-12 could pick up, Nevada and Boise State would be good additions--the former gives them the Las Vegas market and the later is a hot national brand/team. And if the Pac-12/14 is desperate enough, there are a number of California schools (Fresno State, San Diego State) they could go after.

I don't think Larry Scott will make the mistake of going after Oklahoma or Texas again--not if the price of admission is onboarding Okie Like, Texas Tech, and/or Baylor.

---

Notre Dame Joe--I didn't see you answer this before, but if you did, I apologize--where do you think Notre Dame will go if they're forced into a conference?

 

[gratefullred]

A point I have been pondering. CBS does not seem thrilled about throwing more money to the SEC after their latest additions of A&M and Mizzou. There is a thread on it in "Other Sports". ESPN was obiviously not impressed with the ACC's additions of Pitt and Syracuse.

Be cautious when traveling down this road. It is possible that a super-conference is not all that super.

 

[VectorVictor]

A point I have been pondering. CBS does not seem thrilled about throwing more money to the SEC after their latest additions of A&M and Mizzou. There is a thread on it in "Other Sports". ESPN was obiviously not impressed with the ACC's additions of Pitt and Syracuse.

Be cautious when traveling down this road. It is possible that a super-conference is not all that super.

ESPN and CBS are businesses--their goal is to make a profit, and they're obviously going to be adverse to having to increase payments on contracts. In other news, the sun rises in the East, water is wet, and men love T&A.

In all seriousness, remember that there's a reason Pitt and Syracuse were passed on by the B1G--the former doesn't even own its own state, and the later doesn't have any significant media markets under its belt. That probably helped justify ESPN's stance on the ACC, but considering the ACC has bigger and better media markets than the Big XII, it still smacks of incompetence on the part of the ACC brass.

Missouri and aTm, on the other hand, bring in .3 of KC/St. Louis and Houston, respectively. Those markets aren't anything to sneeze at and are net new for the SEC.

 

[gratefullred]

A point I have been pondering. CBS does not seem thrilled about throwing more money to the SEC after their latest additions of A&M and Mizzou. There is a thread on it in "Other Sports". ESPN was obiviously not impressed with the ACC's additions of Pitt and Syracuse.

Be cautious when traveling down this road. It is possible that a super-conference is not all that super.

ESPN and CBS are businesses--their goal is to make a profit, and they're obviously going to be adverse to having to increase payments on contracts. In other news, the sun rises in the East, water is wet, and men love T&A.

In all seriousness, remember that there's a reason Pitt and Syracuse were passed on by the B1G--the former doesn't even own its own state, and the later doesn't have any significant media markets under its belt. That probably helped justify ESPN's stance on the ACC, but considering the ACC has bigger and better media markets than the Big XII, it still smacks of incompetence on the part of the ACC brass.

Missouri and aTm, on the other hand, bring in .3 of KC/St. Louis and Houston, respectively. Those markets aren't anything to sneeze at and are net new for the SEC.

The ACC had the bigger, better media markets, but the Big XII has the better brands in OU and Texas.

Again Mizzou and T&M bring great markets, but how do they rate as brands? Mizzou, blah T&M, good but not great.

I am sure CBS is will come to a number closer to what the SEC wants. It will be interesting to see just where that number is.

 

[VectorVictor]

A point I have been pondering. CBS does not seem thrilled about throwing more money to the SEC after their latest additions of A&M and Mizzou. There is a thread on it in "Other Sports". ESPN was obiviously not impressed with the ACC's additions of Pitt and Syracuse.

Be cautious when traveling down this road. It is possible that a super-conference is not all that super.

ESPN and CBS are businesses--their goal is to make a profit, and they're obviously going to be adverse to having to increase payments on contracts. In other news, the sun rises in the East, water is wet, and men love T&A.

In all seriousness, remember that there's a reason Pitt and Syracuse were passed on by the B1G--the former doesn't even own its own state, and the later doesn't have any significant media markets under its belt. That probably helped justify ESPN's stance on the ACC, but considering the ACC has bigger and better media markets than the Big XII, it still smacks of incompetence on the part of the ACC brass.

Missouri and aTm, on the other hand, bring in .3 of KC/St. Louis and Houston, respectively. Those markets aren't anything to sneeze at and are net new for the SEC.

The ACC had the bigger, better media markets, but the Big XII has the better brands in OU and Texas.

Again Mizzou and T&M bring great markets, but how do they rate as brands? Mizzou, blah T&M, good but not great.

I am sure CBS is will come to a number closer to what the SEC wants. It will be interesting to see just where that number is.

The last rounds of expansion/change showed us that while ratings matter, the size of one's available footprint (and thus, potential viewers) is the other side to what is driving all of these media deals. That's why mediocre (or worse) schools like Rutgers and Maryland were and are, respectively, in the mix for expansion--it was assumed that Rutgers (and Syracuse before it) could deliver NYC, the supposed motherload of viewers, but that theory has been debunked. Maryland does bring in D.C. and Baltimore viewers, and they have said they're willing to listen to offers. Nebraska was able to overcome the crappy footprint by being a prominent national brand that generated the second-best ratings in the Big XII. The UT/NU 2009 Big XII title game was the highest rated Saturday evening game in ABC/ESPN history at the time.

And while Texas and Oklahoma may be ultra-regional and national brands, respectively, the Big XII is still a top-heavy league. The ACC is, from top to bottom, a better football and basketball conference overall in terms of level of competition inside the conference. That's not to say OU (not sure about UT) wouldn't decimate the ACC--just saying once you get beyond OU and UT, you don't have much on the shelf.

I honestly wonder if part of the increase of the Big XII contract by the frozen head of Walt was an attempt to make sure the Big XII stays intact if ESPN realized Bevo TV is the punchline to a bad $300 million joke and pulls the rug out from under it.

 

[Woody Tressel]

Would love to have Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. That would be my dream conferece. Florida State would be an awesome addition too.

This!

 

[Blackshirts007]

Sounds like Clemson is going to be the first domino per some dudes on twitter.

Here is a question. IF and when we get to 4 major conferences deciding a national title, who is the biggest name left out of the Big Ten,SEC,Big XII or Pac-12?

I see ND and VA Tech finding a place to land, so that leaves Miami, Boise, and Pitt as the biggest "brands" I see left out. Any of them could land somewhere it is a changing situation.

ND will land in the Big XII I think.

VaTech will find a spot in the Big Ten or the SEC.

wow. Miami of Florida could be left out of the entire thing unless the Big XII decides to take them.

I would like Va Tech in the B1G. As long as we keep ND as far away from our conference i will be happy

 

[HSKR]

Miami and Florida State in the Big 12 would make Husker fan never complain about travel distances in the BIG again. The more I think about it, the more I would like to see ND end up in some other conferences other then the BIG. If the Big is going to expand it would be nice to get it done and don't even ask ND. They have had so many chances, it's time to say screw them and move on, see how happy they are dealing with Texas and playing in Ames and Lubbock. There is no conference that equal shares would give ND more money then the BIG. It would be nice to see them end up somewhere else, share the money equally and see them losing millions every year compared to what they could have got in the BIG, plus all that extra travel.