Big Ten
Projected win percentage: .439
Many analysts believe that the Big Ten was the best conference in the country this season. FPI doesn't argue with the strength at the top of the conference, but it has consistently questioned its depth, which will be on display this bowl season. Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern all rank 40th or worse in FPI and are underdogs in their bowl games. Ultimately the Big Ten won't be judged by how its mid-level teams perform, though. FPI gives Ohio State a 55 percent chance to beat Clemson in College Football Playoff semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl (7 p.m. on Dec. 31 on ESPN), Michigan a 62 percent chance to beat Florida State in Capital One Orange Bowl (8 p.m. ET Dec. 30 on ESPN), Penn State a 38 percent chance to beat USC in Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual (5 p.m. ET Jan. 2 on ESPN), and Wisconsin a 61 percent chance to beat Western Michigan in Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (1 p.m. ET Jan. 2 on ESPN). Overall, there's an 8 percent chance the Big Ten sweeps its four New Year's Six bowl matchups.
