B1G rankings per Avg. Category Z-Scores

[beorach]

I will have these in my main stats thread next week but figured nobody (who might want to see that we're not dead last in every category after what happened last weekend) would see it if I put it there now so...

Passing Offense:














1


Ohio State


2.06




2


Purdue


0.74




3


Michigan State


0.38




4


Indiana


0.32




5


Michigan


0.26




6


Penn State


0.10




7


Wisconsin


0.08




8


Northwestern


0.00




9


Iowa


-0.04




10


Nebraska


-0.60




11


Illinois


-0.75




12


Minnesota


-0.79




13


Maryland


-0.97




14


Rutgers


-1.67







Passing Defense














1


Michigan


1.10




2


Indiana


0.78




3


Ohio State


0.74




4


Minnesota


0.67




5


Penn State


0.53




6


Wisconsin


0.41




7


Maryland


0.26




8


Iowa


0.20




9


Nebraska


-0.27




10


Purdue


-0.35




11


Rutgers


-0.41




12


Northwestern


-0.73




13


Michigan State


-0.85




14


Illinois


-0.92







Rushing Offense














1


Penn State


2.17




2


Maryland


1.22




3


Wisconsin


1.04




4


Ohio State


0.74




5


Michigan


0.65




6


Illinois


0.45




7


Purdue


-0.11




8


Indiana


-0.29




9


Nebraska


-0.33




10


Iowa


-0.33




11


Northwestern


-0.69




12


Minnesota


-0.69




13


Rutgers


-0.77




14


Michigan State


-0.99







Rushing Defense














1


Michigan State


1.94




2


Iowa


1.47




3


Michigan


1.13




4


Maryland


1.02




5


Northwestern


0.63




6


Wisconsin


0.51




7


Ohio State


0.21




8


Minnesota


0.20




9


Purdue


0.20




10


Penn State


0.17




11


Indiana


-0.16




12


Nebraska


-0.34




13


Illinois


-0.91




14


Rutgers


-1.16







Scoring Offense














1


Penn State


2.40




2


Ohio State


2.26




3


Michigan


0.94




4


Maryland


0.20




5


Wisconsin


0.03




6


Indiana


-0.28




7


Michigan State


-0.45




8


Purdue


-0.50




9


Illinois


-0.65




10


Minnesota


-0.65




11


Northwestern


-0.68




12


Iowa


-0.73




13


Nebraska


-1.27




14


Rutgers


-1.52







Scoring Defense














1


Iowa


1.35




2


Michigan


1.28




3


Wisconsin


1.27




4


Ohio State


0.92




5


Minnesota


0.90




6


Penn State


0.68




7


Michigan State


0.56




8


Indiana


0.32




9


Maryland


0.29




10


Purdue


0.10




11


Northwestern


-0.33




12


Illinois


-0.71




13


Nebraska


-1.23




14


Rutgers


-1.54







Total Offense














1


Ohio State


1.68




2


Penn State


0.82




3


Purdue


0.51




4


Northwestern


0.44




5


Wisconsin


0.37




6


Illinois


-0.04




7


Indiana


-0.07




8


Michigan


-0.15




9


Michigan State


-0.31




10


Iowa


-0.34




11


Maryland


-0.37




12


Minnesota


-0.62




13


Nebraska


-0.63




14


Rutgers


-1.35







Total Defense














1


Michigan


1.42




2


Iowa


1.34




3


Minnesota


0.95




4


Wisconsin


0.94




5


Ohio State


0.64




6


Maryland


0.59




7


Indiana


0.55




8


Penn State


0.18




9


Michigan State


0.09




10


Northwestern


0.06




11


Nebraska


-0.05




12


Purdue


-0.41




13


Rutgers


-0.47




14


Illinois


-1.28







Turnover Margin














1


Ohio State


0.79




2


Maryland


0.76




3


Illinois


0.73




4


Wisconsin


0.60




5


Indiana


0.60




6


Michigan


0.10




7


Penn State


0.08




8


Iowa


-0.24




9


Minnesota


-0.28




10


Northwestern


-0.32




11


Purdue


-0.48




12


Michigan State


-0.61




13


Nebraska


-1.26




14


Rutgers


-1.32







I've included all games played through last weekend (including those against FCS teams) and no adjustment has been made to reflect strength of schedule.

p.s. - If I average the rankings from up above to come up with overall rankings (instead of just going with Z-scores like I did earlier this week), we get this pecking order of STATS, not TEAMS:














1


Ohio State


3.11




2


Michigan


3.78




3


Wisconsin


4.78




4


Penn State


5.11




5


Indiana


6.44




6


Maryland


6.44




7


Iowa


6.89




8


Purdue


8




9


Michigan State


8.33




10


Minnesota


8.33




11


Northwestern


9.11




12


Illinois


9.78




13


Nebraska


11.4




14


Rutgers


13.4

 

[Redux]

It was one thing watching us struggle to run the ball because the staff didn't care about the ground game.  It was an entirely different kind of hurt watching us utterly fail to run it when the staff wanted to run it.

 

[cheekygeek]

OK. OK.

We DO want to be Iowa.

 

[beorach]

OK. OK.

We DO want to be Iowa.

I sure wouldn't mind being similar (just with better talent).

 

[Huskerzoo]

For those of you unaware of what zscores are: https://stattrek.com/statistics/dictionary.aspx?definition=z_score and if you don't know what a standard deviation is: https://www.mathplanet.com/education/algebra-2/quadratic-functions-and-inequalities/standard-deviation-and-normal-distribution

 

[jsneb83]

Thank goodness for Rutgers

 

[Making Chimichangas]

I will have these in my main stats thread next week but figured nobody (who might want to see that we're not dead last in every category after what happened last weekend) would see it if I put it there now so...

Passing Offense:














1


Ohio State


2.06




2


Purdue


0.74




3


Michigan State


0.38




4


Indiana


0.32




5


Michigan


0.26




6


Penn State


0.10




7


Wisconsin


0.08




8


Northwestern


0.00




9


Iowa


-0.04




10


Nebraska


-0.60




11


Illinois


-0.75




12


Minnesota


-0.79




13


Maryland


-0.97




14


Rutgers


-1.67







Passing Defense














1


Michigan


1.10




2


Indiana


0.78




3


Ohio State


0.74




4


Minnesota


0.67




5


Penn State


0.53




6


Wisconsin


0.41




7


Maryland


0.26




8


Iowa


0.20




9


Nebraska


-0.27




10


Purdue


-0.35




11


Rutgers


-0.41




12


Northwestern


-0.73




13


Michigan State


-0.85




14


Illinois


-0.92







Rushing Offense














1


Penn State


2.17




2


Maryland


1.22




3


Wisconsin


1.04




4


Ohio State


0.74




5


Michigan


0.65




6


Illinois


0.45




7


Purdue


-0.11




8


Indiana


-0.29




9


Nebraska


-0.33




10


Iowa


-0.33




11


Northwestern


-0.69




12


Minnesota


-0.69




13


Rutgers


-0.77




14


Michigan State


-0.99







Rushing Defense














1


Michigan State


1.94




2


Iowa


1.47




3


Michigan


1.13




4


Maryland


1.02




5


Northwestern


0.63




6


Wisconsin


0.51




7


Ohio State


0.21




8


Minnesota


0.20




9


Purdue


0.20




10


Penn State


0.17




11


Indiana


-0.16




12


Nebraska


-0.34




13


Illinois


-0.91




14


Rutgers


-1.16







Scoring Offense














1


Penn State


2.40




2


Ohio State


2.26




3


Michigan


0.94




4


Maryland


0.20




5


Wisconsin


0.03




6


Indiana


-0.28




7


Michigan State


-0.45




8


Purdue


-0.50




9


Illinois


-0.65




10


Minnesota


-0.65




11


Northwestern


-0.68




12


Iowa


-0.73




13


Nebraska


-1.27




14


Rutgers


-1.52







Scoring Defense














1


Iowa


1.35




2


Michigan


1.28




3


Wisconsin


1.27




4


Ohio State


0.92




5


Minnesota


0.90




6


Penn State


0.68




7


Michigan State


0.56




8


Indiana


0.32




9


Maryland


0.29




10


Purdue


0.10




11


Northwestern


-0.33




12


Illinois


-0.71




13


Nebraska


-1.23




14


Rutgers


-1.54







Total Offense














1


Ohio State


1.68




2


Penn State


0.82




3


Purdue


0.51




4


Northwestern


0.44




5


Wisconsin


0.37




6


Illinois


-0.04




7


Indiana


-0.07




8


Michigan


-0.15




9


Michigan State


-0.31




10


Iowa


-0.34




11


Maryland


-0.37




12


Minnesota


-0.62




13


Nebraska


-0.63




14


Rutgers


-1.35







Total Defense














1


Michigan


1.42




2


Iowa


1.34




3


Minnesota


0.95




4


Wisconsin


0.94




5


Ohio State


0.64




6


Maryland


0.59




7


Indiana


0.55




8


Penn State


0.18




9


Michigan State


0.09




10


Northwestern


0.06




11


Nebraska


-0.05




12


Purdue


-0.41




13


Rutgers


-0.47




14


Illinois


-1.28







Turnover Margin














1


Ohio State


0.79




2


Maryland


0.76




3


Illinois


0.73




4


Wisconsin


0.60




5


Indiana


0.60




6


Michigan


0.10




7


Penn State


0.08




8


Iowa


-0.24




9


Minnesota


-0.28




10


Northwestern


-0.32




11


Purdue


-0.48




12


Michigan State


-0.61




13


Nebraska


-1.26




14


Rutgers


-1.32







I've included all games played through last weekend (including those against FCS teams) and no adjustment has been made to reflect strength of schedule.

p.s. - If I average the rankings from up above to come up with overall rankings (instead of just going with Z-scores like I did earlier this week), we get this pecking order:














1


Ohio State


3.11




2


Michigan


3.78




3


Wisconsin


4.78




4


Penn State


5.11




5


Indiana


6.44




6


Maryland


6.44




7


Iowa


6.89




8


Purdue


8




9


Michigan State


8.33




10


Minnesota


8.33




11


Northwestern


9.11




12


Illinois


9.78




13


Nebraska


11.4




14


Rutgers


13.4

I literally have no bleeping idea what you just posted here or what it means.  

:blink:

Edit: I know by the rankings they are bad, but outside of that, those decimal numbers really don't mean anything to me.  Sorry, not a stats wonk.

 

[Huskerzoo]

I literally have no bleeping idea what you just posted here or what it means.  

:blink:

Edit: I know by the rankings they are bad, but outside of that, those decimal numbers really don't mean anything to me.  Sorry, not a stats wonk.

A zscore is a standard score where 1 (either plus or minus) represents 1 standard deviation of a normal distribution. So the -.60 means that we're at roughly better than 30% of teams out there, whereas 70% of teams are better than us. 

-1.27 means that we're better than about 10% of teams, with 90% of teams better than us. I posted some links that kind of help explain it. 

 

[LaunchCode]

It was one thing watching us struggle to run the ball because the staff didn't care about the ground game.  It was an entirely different kind of hurt watching us utterly fail to run it when the staff wanted to run it.

Losing Tre Bryant early last season really hurt the run game. 

He had 300 yards in two games, compare that to OZ who was our leading rusher with 493 yrds in 10 games followed by Wilbon with 379 in 11 games.

With Tre we averaged 4.84 yrds per carry per game, after Tre it went down to 3.1 yrds per game.

 

[Jeepy]

Pretty bad, no matter how you slice it. 

 

[beorach]

I literally have no bleeping idea what you just posted here or what it means.  

:blink:

Edit: I know by the rankings they are bad, but outside of that, those decimal numbers really don't mean anything to me.  Sorry, not a stats wonk.

A z-score is just a stat's difference from a mean/average, expressed in terms of the number of standard deviations (for the data sample the stat belongs to).  Excel will calculate it for you and then you can convert it to a percentile, which is what I share more often because people are familiar with that term.  I used to go into some detail on the math with every stats post but stopped doing it after a couple of years, partly because I mostly get responses like yours above (such that I figure only people who understand what these things are even care).

The bottom line is nothing I'm sharing is beyond the level of the most basic stats class.  If you know what a bell curve is, you can grasp what I share such that it's just a matter of terminology.  When I first started sharing stats here, I wasn't using z-scores but conditional statements in Excel to determine whether stats were beyond 1-2 confidence intervals.  Someone asked me why I wasn't just using z-scores, for which I was and continue to be very thankful.

I think it's important to note that these stats are just representations of performances.  Nebraska can obviously play a lot better!

A zscore is a standard score where 1 (either plus or minus) represents 1 standard deviation of a normal distribution. So the -.60 means that we're at roughly better than 30% of teams out there, whereas 70% of teams are better than us. 

-1.27 means that we're better than about 10% of teams, with 90% of teams better than us. I posted some links that kind of help explain it. 

Thanks for the assist, Hz!