Best/Worst Case for 2016 Huskers

[cm husker]

I'm referring to a reported bottom 1/3 of total signees during the past few years. I'll confirm the numbers but signing so few players will have an impact

 

[cm husker]

By the way, for all the talk about calling systems to players strengths, what is Chrysts record as a HC? Where do his offenses usually rank in scoring?

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

Vegas disagrees with the notion of a 9-win ceiling. I realize that best/worst case is not the same thing as betting on the win total, but with a Vegas 8.5 win total, I fail to see how 9 wins would be seen as a "best case scenario"

I would go with 6 to 11 wins personally. Anything outside of this would really blow my mind.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I think Wisconsin will take a hit because (a) they recruited poorly starting in around 2013, at least from a pure numbers perspective, and (b) they don't have Alvarez to keep the reins pulled in on Chryst.

If you look at his years at Pitt, he was very "pro style" oriented, with QBs throwing almost 400 passes during each of his first two seasons (more than 30 attempts per game). And this past year he threw it more than 30 times a game.

Wisconsin recruiting is fine. They consistently rank outside the Top-30, if not Top-40. It is what it always has been, and has seen an uptick under Paul Chryst.

Tom Savage threw nearly 400 passes in 2013 with a very talented Tyler Boyd at WR. Why not take advantage of that? In 2014, with a much-improved James Conner (RB) and OL, Pittsburgh ran the ball over 60% of the time. Again, Paul Chryst adapts to the talent around him. He has done it his entire coaching career, from Oregon State, to Wisconsin, to Pittsburgh.

Joel Stave set school records in pass attempts/completions in 2015 because Corey Clement was sidelined. His backups? A converted defensive back, a converted linebacker, and a freshman (RS). It's no wonder why Wisconsin threw the ball so much!

Many teams, including most of the best teams, are able to feature quarterbacks who throw 30 or more attempts a game while still maintaining a robust rushing attack.

As I recall, Melvin Gordon ran wild in a season where Stave and McEvoy still passed plenty.

 

[cm husker]

I think Wisconsin will take a hit because (a) they recruited poorly starting in around 2013, at least from a pure numbers perspective, and (b) they don't have Alvarez to keep the reins pulled in on Chryst.

If you look at his years at Pitt, he was very "pro style" oriented, with QBs throwing almost 400 passes during each of his first two seasons (more than 30 attempts per game). And this past year he threw it more than 30 times a game.

Wisconsin recruiting is fine. They consistently rank outside the Top-30, if not Top-40. It is what it always has been, and has seen an uptick under Paul Chryst.

Tom Savage threw nearly 400 passes in 2013 with a very talented Tyler Boyd at WR. Why not take advantage of that? In 2014, with a much-improved James Conner (RB) and OL, Pittsburgh ran the ball over 60% of the time. Again, Paul Chryst adapts to the talent around him. He has done it his entire coaching career, from Oregon State, to Wisconsin, to Pittsburgh.

Joel Stave set school records in pass attempts/completions in 2015 because Corey Clement was sidelined. His backups? A converted defensive back, a converted linebacker, and a freshman (RS). It's no wonder why Wisconsin threw the ball so much!

Many teams, including most of the best teams, are able to feature quarterbacks who throw 30 or more attempts a game while still maintaining a robust rushing attack.

As I recall, Melvin Gordon ran wild in a season where Stave and McEvoy still passed plenty.

You're thinking of 2014, when Gordon had 2500 yards?

That Wisky team averaged 23 attempts and 150 passing yards per game that season (and more than double that number of attempts and yards in the running game).

 

[NoLongerN]

I'm still at 7-5 as worst case and 9-3 as best case. I'd be elated with 8-4. I expect more of the same from TA, don't like the OL and the DL hit will be felt in the B1G when it all counts. As stated 4-6 months ago, the steam that would be generated in a good recruiting class (and I couldn't be more pleased with what it next years class) will reach it's peak just before the season starts and I think we take a good hit on that last 4-5 games and Husker Nation will be hoping we can hold on to 2-3 pieces of what I think will look like a Top 15 class.

I think it's the next year we see a bit of a tick up.

 

[badgers007]

I'm referring to a reported bottom 1/3 of total signees during the past few years. I'll confirm the numbers but signing so few players will have an impact

There are quite a few factors that go into each signing class. Wisconsin suffers little attrition, is well-known for awarding scholarships to walk-ons, a larger number of freshmen take a redshirt year, and the program never over-signs. This skews those senior numbers quite a bit, and it can result in smaller class sizes --- take this recruiting cycle, for example.

The "total signees during the past few years" has not resulted in a diluted on-field product.

 

[drfish]

Best case: Something just clicks in TA's brain and he goes 40/6 TD/INT. OL channel's their inner Shields and allows no sacks and drives YPCarry to 7.5. Defense takes major steps at all levels and channels their inner Blackshirts becoming a top 10 scoring D. Huskers go 15-0 and are (no longer mythical) national champions.

Worst case: Overvalued stock market crashes. The US dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, so the dollar crashes. Hyperinflation ensues. Anarchy in the streets follows. President Obama declares emergency powers, but is unable to gain control of the crisis. A high ranking military official stages a coup and dissolves the US house and Senate. It turns out that the new dictator is a close personal friend of DeLoss Dodds. Nebraska is declared a rogue university and its athletic department is shut down. Its coaches are jailed. Memorial stadium is razed. Anyone heard yelling Go Big Red or wearing Husker apparel is declared an enemy of the state and summarily executed or thrown in prison.

Or maybe... worst case Injuries plague team. Armstrong, Westercamp, Reilly , Gates all go down with season ending injuries. 7-6

Best case 11-2

 

[badgers007]

By the way, for all the talk about calling systems to players strengths, what is Chrysts record as a HC? Where do his offenses usually rank in scoring?

Paul Chryst's record was a mediocre 19-19 at Pittsburgh. He is 29-22 (.568) overall.

Context is required when going through his time at Pitt. The morale surrounding that program was a mess when he became head coach. Dave Wannstedt resigned in December 2010, was succeeded by Mike Haywood that same month, who was fired two weeks later after a domestic abuse charge. In came Todd Graham, who also had a highly-publicized departure less than a year after taking the job. Three coaches in less than a calendar year is quite the hit.

In any case, playing to your strengths is not always going to result in a great W/L record. James Conner was primarily recruited as an LB, for example. He had one-full season of experience playing RB at the HS level, but Pitt allowed him the opportunity to come in and try-out RB (which turned out to be a great move!). Not having much else on the roster, Pitt throws an incredibly inexperienced rusher into the fire with a struggling OL. During that season, Chryst had a QB in Tom Savage that won the Rutgers starting job as a true freshman + a highly-touted WR in Tyler Boyd. Not being able to lean on a very inexperienced (quite literally) running game that season, Chryst turned to a relatively experienced QB and a very-talented WR.

All this being said, I still cannot agree that Chryst will tune Wisconsin into a pass-oriented offense. 2015 was quite the exception due to Corey Clement going down. Chryst had three RB's that included, Dare Ogunbowale (converted DB), Taiwan Deal (RS Freshman), and Alec Ingold (converted LB). That's tough-sledding. It resulted in Chryst having to lean heavily on his experienced, three-year starting QB (Joel Stave) and a two-year starting WR (Alex Erickson). Outside of 2015, Paul Chryst headed offenses at Wisconsin that featured quarterbacks like Russell Wilson... and still ran the ball 60%+ of the time!

 

[badgers007]

I think Wisconsin will take a hit because (a) they recruited poorly starting in around 2013, at least from a pure numbers perspective, and (b) they don't have Alvarez to keep the reins pulled in on Chryst.

If you look at his years at Pitt, he was very "pro style" oriented, with QBs throwing almost 400 passes during each of his first two seasons (more than 30 attempts per game). And this past year he threw it more than 30 times a game.

Wisconsin recruiting is fine. They consistently rank outside the Top-30, if not Top-40. It is what it always has been, and has seen an uptick under Paul Chryst.

Tom Savage threw nearly 400 passes in 2013 with a very talented Tyler Boyd at WR. Why not take advantage of that? In 2014, with a much-improved James Conner (RB) and OL, Pittsburgh ran the ball over 60% of the time. Again, Paul Chryst adapts to the talent around him. He has done it his entire coaching career, from Oregon State, to Wisconsin, to Pittsburgh.

Joel Stave set school records in pass attempts/completions in 2015 because Corey Clement was sidelined. His backups? A converted defensive back, a converted linebacker, and a freshman (RS). It's no wonder why Wisconsin threw the ball so much!

Many teams, including most of the best teams, are able to feature quarterbacks who throw 30 or more attempts a game while still maintaining a robust rushing attack.

As I recall, Melvin Gordon ran wild in a season where Stave and McEvoy still passed plenty.

Combined, those two didn't come close to 30+ attempts/game during the 2014 season.

 

[cm husker]

I'm referring to a reported bottom 1/3 of total signees during the past few years. I'll confirm the numbers but signing so few players will have an impact

There are quite a few factors that go into each signing class. Wisconsin suffers little attrition, is well-known for awarding scholarships to walk-ons, a larger number of freshmen take a redshirt year, and the program never over-signs. This skews those senior numbers quite a bit, and it can result in smaller class sizes --- take this recruiting cycle, for example.

The "total signees during the past few years" has not resulted in a diluted on-field product.

Fair enough. My impression was that starting in around 2013, the class sizes diminished so the impact of that wouldn't really materialize until this year.

I guess we'll all need to wait and see where Wisconsin goes under Cryst

 

[badgers007]

Don't forget that Wisconsin lost their DC...and he was considered one of the best around.

OSU lost their DC.

Oregon lost their OC and named a new DC

======

All of these teams will be breaking in new schemes just like we did last year and still adjusting to the change. Sure, we changed DL coaches...but it seems to me like we'll be young there anyway and Parella likes his guys to pin their ears back...so I am not too worried about DL and am more worried about the secondary.

Anyway, let's not forget all the coaching changes on other teams...they do have an impact.

Wisconsin losing Dave Aranda will be a hit, for sure. It would be foolish to think Wisconsin replicates the success they had over the last three seasons with him heading the defense. Quite frankly, it was an elite unit.

That being said, Wisconsin has always had a good, disciplined defense. In the four years prior to Aranda's arrival, Wisconsin had a Top-25 defense each season. Just twice in the last ten seasons has Wisconsin had a defense rank outside the Top-25. In that same time, there hasn't been a defense outside the Top-40.

Wisconsin will, no doubt, still be "adjusting to the change," but there is no new scheme. I envision a solid defense with one of the best, most experienced front-sevens in the country. It will be interesting to see who steps up with Sojourn Shelton in the secondary, but his other running-mate at CB, Derrick Tindal, has no shortage of experience (he's started multiple games in his career and was Wisconsin's nickel-back). The big question will be the center-fielders, as it looks like Wisconsin will be starting the highly-touted sophomore, Arrington Farrar, and D'Cota Dixon.

 

[Scratchtown]

Worst case - 0-12

Best case - 15-0

While this is true. I always hate these comments. It's like running away from confrontation.
However, 0-12 is more likely than 15-0.

But we all know that NEITHER of those are going to happen. 6-6 to 9-3 is the appropriate range given the issues NU has with new personnel and lets set the record straight and realize that the offense NU put out in the UCLA game is not going to be the staple offense of the 2016 season.

How about most likely best case and most likely worst case?
Luck and injuries play so much into the equation. Royals are a case in point - last year very few injuries, this year EVERYBODY is hurt. Bo's last year had plenty of miracle wins, Reilly had plenty of miracle losses.

It's Riley.

Not Reilly

 

[Redux]

I'm referring to a reported bottom 1/3 of total signees during the past few years. I'll confirm the numbers but signing so few players will have an impact

There are quite a few factors that go into each signing class. Wisconsin suffers little attrition, is well-known for awarding scholarships to walk-ons, a larger number of freshmen take a redshirt year, and the program never over-signs. This skews those senior numbers quite a bit, and it can result in smaller class sizes --- take this recruiting cycle, for example.

The "total signees during the past few years" has not resulted in a diluted on-field product.

I guess we'll all need to wait and see where Wisconsin goes under Cryst

Some may say the same about Riley at Nebraska

 

[Enhance]

Talent alone is not a big advantage when said talent wasn't directly recruited for the current system in place. Talent helps overcome some obstacles, but that is still the big one in our way.

Overrated excuse, imo. It makes a lot of difference at QB. It makes almost no difference at most other spots. Running backs and receivers can play in any system. You might have linemen that are better run blockers or pass blockers but they still have to do both. Defensive linemen still rush the passer. Linebackers still have to tackle. DBs still have to cover.

The techniques may change. And they may be asked to do different things. But other than QB, you're really not recruiting a different type of player for any other position. You're after the best talent and teaching them how you want to do things.

This is mostly true, yet my point stands based off the following:
QB play is where your chance of winning games centers around. Our current QB struggled in the his 1st year in this system. The WR targets he has make up fo a lot of his shortcomings, but he is still a square peg in a round hole. It's not his fault either and I expect him to make the most of his final year but a square peg can only do so much to fill a circular hole.

That and, ya know our line play is a bit of a mystery heading into the season. Not that that's specifically a talent issue though, on defense talent is huge but experience is thinner.

I pretty much agree with this.

But it's quite a ways from what you posted the first time. We still have a talent advantage on basically everyone we play. Doesn't matter what system they were recruited for, they're still better than the guy across from them. Plus, how may of the guys on other teams are playing with guys their coaches didn't recruit? It didn't seem to hurt Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue against us last year.

I can't really speak for Illinois/Purdue, but one thing Wisconsin seems to do pretty well is stick with a team identity from coach to coach. You know what you're going to get with Wisconsin and that's strong linemen, a heavy focus on the running game and opportunistic passing. Nebraska hasn't had that identity luxury from coach to coach which, in my opinion, can make it difficult to maintain consistency.
I think best case scenario is 10 wins this year. I don't know think we have the right formula for anything more. I think six or less wins would certainly be a disappointment and an unacceptable season. This team is capable of winning at least 8 games even with talent losses they've sustained.

I think we will see a change in offense to a more passing oriented scheme at Wisconsin, and that will benefit NU greatly during the next few years.

I think you may be right about Wisconsin and IMO it would be a big mistake. I think Cryst does like to sling the ball around though. Wisconsin's identity is what makes them successful. They arn't flashy on the surface, but winning 10 games most years is alwyas flashy.

Some seem to forget that Paul Chryst is as familiar with the foundation of Wisconsin football as anyone not named Barry Alvarez. He was an Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin for several seasons before taking the head job at Pitt. He orchestrated tremendous rushing attacks with the likes of Brian Calhoun, PJ Hill, John Clay, James White, and Montee Ball.

Not sure what makes your fan base think Wisconsin becomes a pass-oriented scheme...? Paul Chryst has always adapted to the talent available. In 2015, with Corey Clement sidelined and a converted defensive back and Freshman (RS) at running back, we saw more usage (single-season school record in pass attempts and completions) out of a competent, though below-average Joel Stave. In 2010, with a game-manager in Scott Tolzien, Chryst had two RB's that rushed for 1,000+ yards and another that was four yards short of. In 2011, with a generational-talent like Russell Wilson at QB, Wisconsin still only passed about 38% of the time.

Again, with a head coach that has a better understanding of how Wisconsin football was built than just about anyone not named Barry Alvarez, I highly doubt you'll see a fundamental change in offensive philosophy.

Careful with the generalizations there, friend.

I agree with you, though. I don't see any real evidence to suggest Wisconsin is going to "change" their offense to a more pass oriented scheme, particularly since Chryst used to be the OC and was hired by Barry Alvarez. As long as BA's in charge, I don't foresee Wisconsin doing anything to change the identity of their football team.