Bracketology 2019

Mavric said:
I guess I'm not all that sure.  I'm a bit perplexed by how the new raking system works for sure.  It appears to give a lot of weight to margin of victory - which we did well early in the year - but I still wonder if our schedule isn't going to catch up to us at some point.

The good thing - and probably helping our ranking - is all our losses are Quad 1.  But we've also stockpiled wins against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams.  Which I suppose most teams have at this point in the year.  But if we lose 7 games and they start falling in the lower categories - and we can't pick up some more nice wins - I think we'll fall down the list. 

I would think we'd still get in at 22-9 (but we didn't last year).  20-11 I'm not so sure.

Quad 1 - Clemson (58)

Quad 2 - Seton Hall (44), Oklahoma St (66)

Quad 3 - Creighton (52), Illinois (124), Penn St (77)

Quad 4 - MVS (349), SELA (332), MO St (190), WIll (300), Cal-Fullerton (243)

Quad 1 Losses - Texas Tech (4), Minnesota (56), Maryland (25), Iowa (34)
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Creighton is a quad 2 win. Quad 2 at home is 31-75.

 
"Checklist for 22"

Non-Con Must-Have Wins - Need All 7 - Check

Miss Valley St - SE Louisiana - Seton Hall - Missouri St - Western Illinois - CSU Fullerton - Southwest Minnesota

Non-Con Toss-Ups - Need 2 - Plus 1

Clemson - Creighton - Oklahoma State - Texas Tech

Conference Must-Have Wins - Need 6 - Down 1

Illinois - Penn State - Rutgers - Illinois - Northwestern - Penn State

"Other" Conference Home Games - Need 5

Michigan State - Ohio State - Wisconsin - Maryland - Minnesota - Purdue - Iowa

"Other" Conference Road Games - Need 1 - Check

Minnesota - Maryland - Iowa - Indiana - Purdue - Michigan - Michigan State

Conference Tournament - Need 1

NET Rankings - Huskers #11 as of 1/18

Quad 1 - Clemson (54), Indiana (30)

Quad 2 - Seton Hall (49), Creighton (58), Oklahoma St (68)

Quad 3 - Illinois (99), Penn St (84)

Quad 4 - MVS (346), SELA (325), MO St (190), WIll (314), Cal-Fullerton (261)

Quad 1 Losses - Texas Tech (8), Minnesota (63), Maryland (21), Iowa (25), Michigan State (6)

Quad 3 Loss - Rutgers (142)

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

 
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We are at the point in the season where if we go .500 the rest of the year, we will end up at 20 wins. 

I expect us to do much better than that.  

 
B.B. Hemingway said:
22-9 sounds good.... 23-8 would be the ceiling in my opinion.
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Well, from Mavrics post above, I expect us to win the 4 “must have wins”. We then have 7 home games. I think can win 6 of those. That gives us 10 wins for 23 total. 

So so I would agree with you. 

Is that “much better” than going .500? I think so. 

I really want us to win on Thursday. I’m so glad that is at home. Not expecting it....but damn it would be nice. 

 
https://theathletic.com/755243/2019/01/08/bubble-watch-nobody-is-a-lock-except-duke-duke-is-a-lock-but-nobody-else/

Nebraska (11-4, 1-3 – NET: 15, SOS: 79): No Big Ten team was damaged more by the league’s struggles a year ago. The Cornhuskers took a couple of so-so losses (and missed out on beating Kansas by a single point) in nonconference play; Tim Miles told his players they would have to do their best work in the league. They did. In any other year, a 13-5 Big Ten record would include, by mathematical necessity, at least four or five quality wins. Nebraska’s didn’t; to the NIT it went.

The good news: The Big Ten is better. So is Nebraska.
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The rest of the season is going to be interesting.  Earlier I said that I think we very well could win 10 of the last 14 games to get to 23 wins.

I just looked and in the Big Ten rankings.  9 of our last 14 games are against teams that are ranked tied or above us.

There's a lot of fun basketball left to watch.

I count that we ended 13-6 in conference last year. (thought there were 20 games, but I counted it twice).  We are currently 3-3.  If my prediction of 10 wins to finish out holds up, we could end up with the same conference record, but one hell of a lot better in our post season placing.

 
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BigRedBuster said:
The rest of the season is going to be interesting.  Earlier I said that I think we very well could win 10 of the last 14 games to get to 23 wins.

I just looked and in the Big Ten rankings.  9 of our last 14 games are against teams that are ranked tied or above us.

There's a lot of fun basketball left to watch.

I count that we ended 13-6 in conference last year. (thought there were 20 games, but I counted it twice).  We are currently 3-3.  If my prediction of 10 wins to finish out holds up, we could end up with the same conference record, but one hell of a lot better in our post season placing.
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13-6 would include the loss in the B1G tournament.  We went 13-5 in the regular season in conference.

 
It does seem like the Huskers are going to benefit from two big factors - the B1G is much better this year than it was last year and other conferences are not very good.  I've seen a couple different places predicting the B1G will get 10 teams in and leagues like the Pac-12 might only get 1 or 2.


 
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