Bracketology
- Thread starter seaofred92
- Start date
Cdog923
All-American
VectorVictor
Heisman Trophy Winner
No, I'm pretty sure it wasn't. However, it may not be the angle we need, but it's the angle that Gotham deserves.
Or something like that.
Cdog923
All-American
I'd post an appropriate, funny gif to go along with this, but Google's new changes to how images are linked makes that almost impossible.
Work to do
Nebraska (22-9, 13-5 Big Ten)
(BPI: 62 | SOS: 60 | SOR: 33 | RPI: 58)
One reason why the Cornhuskers and their gaudy 13-5 Big Ten record are not in stronger bubble position is that Nebraska has beaten just one opponent that will earn an at-large bid: Michigan. It's possible fate has given Nebraska something of a break in that department.
If the brackets hold their form at the Big Ten tournament, the Cornhuskers will play the Wolverines on Friday afternoon in one quarterfinal (assuming Michigan wins on Thursday). No other Quadrant 1 opportunity was possible for Nebraska from any other potential opponent playing on Wednesday or Thursday.
Your chance has arrived, Cornhuskers.
Per: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022718/syracuse-orange-quit-life-edge-bubble
HS_Coach_C
Starter
See my post from above. They are likely in, but they were one of Lunardi's last four bye's. If you think we'll get in by just having 1 or 2 teams in front of us lose, I think you're wrong. We need a few other teams that are currently projected in the field to fall apart. Sure Texas and Baylor might be out, but when a mid-major team steals their conference's bid, we'll get bumped down a spot. All I was pointing out is that we need teams on the fringe to start losing games, and for the most part they aren't.
ScottyIce
Banned
Didn't see that.
Yes, you are right, but I think teams that are that far ahead of us don't leave us enough ground to gain on them.
We need the teams that are in the first four out, and the last four in to lose and lose regularly while we beat Michigan.
Texas losing last night was huge for us.
BIG ERN
All-American
Only 4 of these teams are getting in. I think as of today we would be the last team in. I don't like how the B10 is done so early though, can only hurt our chances. We obviously will have to beat Michigan to get into the tournament.
ON THE BUBBLE
ON THE BUBBLE
- Louisville (19-10) 7th ACC: (1)Virginia, @ NC St
- USC (21-9) 2nd P12: UCLA
- Baylor (17-12) 6th B12: Oklahoma, @ Kansas St
- Nebraska (22-9) 4th B10
- Syracuse (18-11) 10th ACC: @ BC, (18)Clemson
- UCLA (19-10) 4th P12: @ USC
- Mississippi State (21-8) 3rd SEC: (16)Tennessee, @ LSU
- Texas (17-12) 8th B12: (20)West Virginia
- Boise State (22-6) 2nd MWC: @ SDSU, Wyoming
- Washington (19-10) 6th P12: Oregon St, Oregon
- Utah (18-10) 4th P12: Colorado
- Notre Dame (17-12) 10th ACC: Pitt, @ (1)Virginia
ECisGod
Starter
Of the 12 teams listed I would take NU over Baylor, Syracuse, Texas, Boise State, Washington Utah & Notre Dame. I know that wouldn't put NU in the tournament, but most of those team shouldn't even be on the bubble.
HS_Coach_C
Starter
Here's a table of all of the at-large teams that are a 9 seed or lower in Lunardi's bracket along with all of the other teams he lists on the Bubble:
Team
D1 W/L
Conf. W/L
RPI
SOS
SOR
vs top 50
vs 100+
Remaining Games
Comments
Projection
*Alabama
17-12
8-8
44
8
58
6-5
5-3
Florida
@ Texas A&M
1 more win probably makes them a lock
IN
*NC State
20-9
10-6
48
59
31
6-5
11-1
@ GA Tech
Louisville
Probably already a lock
IN
*Missouri
17-11
8-8
42
28
52
4-6
8-2
@ Vandy
Arkansas
Lose next 2 and they should be sweating
IN
*Miami
20-8
9-7
28
58
25
4-5
13-1
@ N Carolina
VA Tech
Probably already a lock
IN
*Arizona State
19-9
7-9
39
64
56
3-3
11-1
Cal
Stanford
A loss to either team could hurt a lot
IN
*St. Mary's
27-4
16-2
43
197
42
1-1
23-2
Only 6 games against top 100 RPI teams…
IN
#Virginia Tech
20-9
9-7
57
89
22
5-8
13-1
@ Miami
Likely a lock now with a win over Duke
IN
#Kansas State
20-9
9-7
60
98
30
2-8
12-0
@ TCU
Baylor
A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry
IN
#St. Bonaventure
22-6
12-4
24
85
38
3-2
16-3
Davidson
@ Saint Louis
Even with 2 more losses I don't see them out
IN
#Providence
18-11
9-7
41
20
46
5-7
8-3
@ Xavier
St. John's
Lose next 2 and they might be sweating
IN
%Louisville
19-10
9-7
37
33
39
1-10
12-0
Virginia
@ NC State
Tough call, 1 decent win, no bad losses
IN
%Texas
17-12
7-9
52
23
41
6-7
10-0
W. Virginia
If they finish 4 games over .500 and get in…
OUT
%USC
21-9
12-5
29
46
54
1-5
12-1
UCLA
Very similar to NEB except higher RPI & SOS
IN
%Baylor
16-12
7-9
62
18
43
3-10
9-1
Oklahoma
@ K State
A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry
OUT
^Syracuse
18-11
7-9
45
15
53
3-8
11-2
@ Boston Co.
Clemson
A 1-1 finish might be enough for them
IN
^UCLA
19-10
10-7
53
66
63
4-4
11-1
@ USC
Loser of USC/UCLA is hopefully out
OUT
^Nebraska
22-9
13-5
58
128
33
1-5
18-1
Need to get the RPI down and top 50 wins up
IN
^Mississippi St
20-8
9-7
61
134
44
4-6
13-2
Tennessee
@ LSU
Beat Tennessee and they probably move in
OUT
^Washington
19-10
9-7
49
44
71
4-2
12-1
Oregon St.
Oregon
2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB
OUT
^Boise State
21-6
12-4
46
143
49
1-2
17-2
@ San Diego St
Wyoming
2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB
OUT
^Utah
18-10
10-7
55
67
67
4-6
11-1
Colorado
Beating Colorado won't do much for them
OUT
^Notre Dame
16-12
7-9
66
39
60
4-8
9-2
Pitt
@ Virginia
If they don't beat VA they're probably out
OUT
*
Currently projected safely in the field as a 9 or 10 seed
#
Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 byes as a 10 or 11 seed
%
Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 in
^
Currently projected out of the field
++ Note these are my opinions next to the data, not Lunardi's ++
Honestly I'm not sure if a win over Michigan is enough, but it might be close. We need 4-6 teams in front of us to drop without anyone jumping us to feel safe even if some at large spots are stolen in conference tournaments.
The most likely that I see:
Arizona State - I'm not as impressed with their resume as Lunardi is, need to lose 1 of their last 2 for sure, maybe both
Kansas State - An 0-2 finish and I think they'd be left out, even 1-1 I think they'll be close
Louisville - If they finish 0-2 it'll be close for them
Texas - As long as they lose to West Virginia and don't do much in the conf. tourney, I think they're out
USC - Beat UCLA and don't implode in the conf. tourney and they are probably in
Baylor - Lose their last 2 and I think they're out, go 1-1 it's probably close
Syracuse - Need to finish 0-2 for us to jump them
UCLA - I hope it's either USC or UCLA and not both
Team
D1 W/L
Conf. W/L
RPI
SOS
SOR
vs top 50
vs 100+
Remaining Games
Comments
Projection
*Alabama
17-12
8-8
44
8
58
6-5
5-3
Florida
@ Texas A&M
1 more win probably makes them a lock
IN
*NC State
20-9
10-6
48
59
31
6-5
11-1
@ GA Tech
Louisville
Probably already a lock
IN
*Missouri
17-11
8-8
42
28
52
4-6
8-2
@ Vandy
Arkansas
Lose next 2 and they should be sweating
IN
*Miami
20-8
9-7
28
58
25
4-5
13-1
@ N Carolina
VA Tech
Probably already a lock
IN
*Arizona State
19-9
7-9
39
64
56
3-3
11-1
Cal
Stanford
A loss to either team could hurt a lot
IN
*St. Mary's
27-4
16-2
43
197
42
1-1
23-2
Only 6 games against top 100 RPI teams…
IN
#Virginia Tech
20-9
9-7
57
89
22
5-8
13-1
@ Miami
Likely a lock now with a win over Duke
IN
#Kansas State
20-9
9-7
60
98
30
2-8
12-0
@ TCU
Baylor
A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry
IN
#St. Bonaventure
22-6
12-4
24
85
38
3-2
16-3
Davidson
@ Saint Louis
Even with 2 more losses I don't see them out
IN
#Providence
18-11
9-7
41
20
46
5-7
8-3
@ Xavier
St. John's
Lose next 2 and they might be sweating
IN
%Louisville
19-10
9-7
37
33
39
1-10
12-0
Virginia
@ NC State
Tough call, 1 decent win, no bad losses
IN
%Texas
17-12
7-9
52
23
41
6-7
10-0
W. Virginia
If they finish 4 games over .500 and get in…
OUT
%USC
21-9
12-5
29
46
54
1-5
12-1
UCLA
Very similar to NEB except higher RPI & SOS
IN
%Baylor
16-12
7-9
62
18
43
3-10
9-1
Oklahoma
@ K State
A 1-1 or 0-2 finish and they should worry
OUT
^Syracuse
18-11
7-9
45
15
53
3-8
11-2
@ Boston Co.
Clemson
A 1-1 finish might be enough for them
IN
^UCLA
19-10
10-7
53
66
63
4-4
11-1
@ USC
Loser of USC/UCLA is hopefully out
OUT
^Nebraska
22-9
13-5
58
128
33
1-5
18-1
Need to get the RPI down and top 50 wins up
IN
^Mississippi St
20-8
9-7
61
134
44
4-6
13-2
Tennessee
@ LSU
Beat Tennessee and they probably move in
OUT
^Washington
19-10
9-7
49
44
71
4-2
12-1
Oregon St.
Oregon
2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB
OUT
^Boise State
21-6
12-4
46
143
49
1-2
17-2
@ San Diego St
Wyoming
2 fairly easy games left, might jump NEB
OUT
^Utah
18-10
10-7
55
67
67
4-6
11-1
Colorado
Beating Colorado won't do much for them
OUT
^Notre Dame
16-12
7-9
66
39
60
4-8
9-2
Pitt
@ Virginia
If they don't beat VA they're probably out
OUT
*
Currently projected safely in the field as a 9 or 10 seed
#
Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 byes as a 10 or 11 seed
%
Currently projected in the field as one of the last 4 in
^
Currently projected out of the field
++ Note these are my opinions next to the data, not Lunardi's ++
Honestly I'm not sure if a win over Michigan is enough, but it might be close. We need 4-6 teams in front of us to drop without anyone jumping us to feel safe even if some at large spots are stolen in conference tournaments.
The most likely that I see:
Arizona State - I'm not as impressed with their resume as Lunardi is, need to lose 1 of their last 2 for sure, maybe both
Kansas State - An 0-2 finish and I think they'd be left out, even 1-1 I think they'll be close
Louisville - If they finish 0-2 it'll be close for them
Texas - As long as they lose to West Virginia and don't do much in the conf. tourney, I think they're out
USC - Beat UCLA and don't implode in the conf. tourney and they are probably in
Baylor - Lose their last 2 and I think they're out, go 1-1 it's probably close
Syracuse - Need to finish 0-2 for us to jump them
UCLA - I hope it's either USC or UCLA and not both
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Minnesota_husker
All-American
Really helpful information. I didnt realize how bad Louisville was against top 50.
I am hoping Texas and Baylor struggle and we can jump them. BIG12 is the basketball darling this year, but I think we are better than quite a few teams in that league.
It all starts with beating Michigan. If we do that we get a Tier 1 win. If we beat MSU we are in for sure in my head.
I honestly think we need to just say "Screw y'all and win the whole thing" MSU is the scariest team in our way. Purdue is really good but they seem inconsistent enough that we can maybe catch them.
VectorVictor
Heisman Trophy Winner
Same could be said for Ohio State, to be honest.
And it's just our luck that we get the craptacular side of the bracket. Michigan and (assuming we and they win), Michigan State?!?! Playing tOSU/Purdue is gonna seem like a letdown if we get by both Michigan teams.
BTW, that's Lunardi saying we're 'IN' now after swearing up and down we're nowhere close to being in? Wonder if Delaney made a call to someone in Bristol, CT...
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HS_Coach_C
Starter
Those are my opinions, not Lunardi's. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I was just using the teams he had listed on the Bubble.Same could be said for Ohio State, to be honest.
And it's just our luck that we get the craptacular side of the bracket. Michigan and (assuming we and they win), Michigan State?!?! Playing tOSU/Purdue is gonna seem like a letdown if we get by both Michigan teams.
BTW, that's Lunardi saying we're 'IN' now after swearing up and down we're nowhere close to being in? Wonder if Delaney made a call to someone in Bristol, CT...
Mierin
Assistant Coach
I don't care what sport it is. If you have a metric that is supposed to order the teams from best to worst, winning % should be the #1 factor. Make it worth only 30% if you want, but the other factors should be worth less. And having opponent win % worth more is simply moronic.