Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

  • Total voters
    107
  • Poll closed .
redout22 said:
As of tomorrow's Bracketology here what we got..

All teams have at least one more regular season game to play.

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A little more information:

Louisville: vs Virginia & @ NC State (Going to be a tough road, but unfortunately if they win either, they are probably locked in)

USC: vs UCLA (both on bubble, winner probably gets a spot)

Baylor: vs OU & @ KState (not sure why they are in right not, but hopefully they lose 2 and are done)

Texas: @ Kansas & vs WV (they are done, shouldn't even be in consideration)

Syracuse: @ BC & vs Clemson (I like our chances here)

UCLA: @ USC

NEB: JWB

Miss. State: vs Tennessee & @ LSU (looks good for us here too)

I still don't really fully understand what is going on with K-State, Florida, VT, Miami, St. Bon & OU...but the next couple weeks will provide the clarity needed.

 
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It's discouraging to see the "bracket experts" not penalize teams when they lose games this late in the season, because they consider them "good losses".  I guess all that matters now is good wins and bad losses.

It would be great to see the NCAA selection committee give a big middle finger to the "bracket experts" in the media, and put NU comfortably in the tournament, but that is probably wishful thinking.

 
There has only been 1 P6 team in NCAA history to win 22 regular season games (record) and not make the tournament--- 2009 Florida. They won their 1st game of the SEC tourney to get to 23 wins, lost second game. 23 wins is also tied for the highest total wins without making the tournament. The field changed to 68 teams in 2011 so we would technically be the first team ever if we lost to Michigan and didn't get in. 

 
Ranking Indiana W -> Ranking after Penn St W

RPI #58 --> #58

BPI #60 --> #61

KenPom #56 --> #54

Very little credit given for beating BPI (#29) and KenPom (#32) darling Penn St.

 
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Our best metric is ESPN's Strength of Record, where we are #33.

Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve.

 
It make some sense in that those ratings take into account the entire season, so the PSU win is just 1 of 30 inputs, and shouldn't move things all that much.

 
A couple things I hope the committee looks at that can't really be measured:

Nebraska beat Mississippi State in an away exhibition game.  They are a fellow bubble team.  Yeah exhibition, but still.  NU had a 23 point lead in that game.

Nebraska's loss to UCF looks worse than it was.  The game was in Orlando, so if it was counted as an away game our RPI would be 4 spots higher than it is because it was a "neutral site" game.  UCF also had Tacko Fall for that game, and he's been out much of the rest of the year with an injury.  He's one of their leading scorers and best defenders.

Minnesota was ranked #14 when Nebraska beat them in December - before they had injuries and suspensions that made them terrible.

The St. John's loss looks worse than it is.  It's a very talented, albeit wildly inconsistent team, that knocked off Villanova and Duke.  Nebraska also played them when they had Marcus Lovett who averaged 32.7 minutes per game.  He was injured not long after that.

The Boston College win is better than it looks.  BC beat Duke, Florida St., & Miami, and they had close losses to Virginia, Clemson, & at Miami.

Outside of the Illinois loss (who also beat fellow bubble team Missouri) Nebraska has taken care of business against teams with lower RPI's than them.

Of the 6 games against top 50 RPI teams, they only got 2 at home, with a big win over Michigan and a 1 point loss to potential 1-seed Kansas.

There have only been 2 games all year where Nebraska didn't compete well (St. John's & Michigan St.) and both of those were very early in the year.

 
HS_Coach_C said:
A couple things I hope the committee looks at that can't really be measured:

Nebraska beat Mississippi State in an away exhibition game.  They are a fellow bubble team.  Yeah exhibition, but still.  NU had a 23 point lead in that game.

Nebraska's loss to UCF looks worse than it was.  The game was in Orlando, so if it was counted as an away game our RPI would be 4 spots higher than it is because it was a "neutral site" game.  UCF also had Tacko Fall for that game, and he's been out much of the rest of the year with an injury.  He's one of their leading scorers and best defenders.

Minnesota was ranked #14 when Nebraska beat them in December - before they had injuries and suspensions that made them terrible.

The St. John's loss looks worse than it is.  It's a very talented, albeit wildly inconsistent team, that knocked off Villanova and Duke.  Nebraska also played them when they had Marcus Lovett who averaged 32.7 minutes per game.  He was injured not long after that.

The Boston College win is better than it looks.  BC beat Duke, Florida St., & Miami, and they had close losses to Virginia, Clemson, & at Miami.

Outside of the Illinois loss (who also beat fellow bubble team Missouri) Nebraska has taken care of business against teams with lower RPI's than them.

Of the 6 games against top 50 RPI teams, they only got 2 at home, with a big win over Michigan and a 1 point loss to potential 1-seed Kansas.

There have only been 2 games all year where Nebraska didn't compete well (St. John's & Michigan St.) and both of those were very early in the year.
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^ for president

 
If only we had that Kansas game. If we don't make the tournament I'm going to regret having gone to that game. Only game I went to all season and only home loss.

 
Minnesota_husker said:
That game and the Ohio State game loom large. A win in either gives us enough ammunition but now who knows.
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Those, or the Creighton game.  Or eliminate the Penn State OT loss and/or the road loss to Illinois and you sit 15-3 in conference.

I hope this team rolls through the Big Ten tourney because I would hate for there to be a bunch of what if's at the end of the year if they're sent to the NIT.

 
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