I don't think you get it. I used our class as an example. The same could be for probably any other top 10 class. The same could be said for the top 100 kids in the nation. I read one time where they could only recruit 1/3 of the top 100 kids in the nation. Thats about 33 kids, that doesn't make it easy on you.
Carroll/chow?
- Thread starter Benard
- Start date
Well, look at it this way...
Last year, Tom Lemming's 2000 Top 200 sent only 34 players into the NFL (including Junior draft eligible from the previous year).
That's just a little over 8% of the highly touted players coming in that are good enough to make the next level.
Not only that...but it also means that around 266 players who had NFL caliber talent going into college, or developed it while in college, were *missed* by Tom Lemming.
Now, that's one guy - but he's pretty high profile and that's one sucky run rate. That certainly suggests that there's a lot of diamonds in the rough out there or unrecognized talents waiting to develop or guys the recruiting raters just plain ol' miss.
At best, recruiting rankings are a weighted gamble - if you took two players in the same position, one rated 4 or 5 stars and one rated either 3 or fewer stars of unrated, there's a slightly higher probability the 4/5 star player will succeed. However, that doesn't mean that the lower rated player won't succeed, and in fact, the chances of that player succeeding are pretty good.
The same parallel can be made with the Patriots. There's only *1* First Round pick on their starting offense. The one that ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring and yardage and won a Superbowl. Chemistry and fit are important. And, dare I say it?...coaching!
Now, that's not to say BC's spiffy recruiting class will be bust - rather, that the Stanfords, Boston Colleges and Notre Dames of the world have as much chance of success at getting good players as UNL does even with the academic standards at play in those places - not to mention the NCAA rules on academics will be getting more and more strict in the next few years.
And I'll say again, UNL isn't an Ohio State or FSU that will take just anyone, literacy optional if they can tackle or run. The Huskers aren't slouches in the academic department in the least.
IRISH!
Last year, Tom Lemming's 2000 Top 200 sent only 34 players into the NFL (including Junior draft eligible from the previous year).
That's just a little over 8% of the highly touted players coming in that are good enough to make the next level.
Not only that...but it also means that around 266 players who had NFL caliber talent going into college, or developed it while in college, were *missed* by Tom Lemming.
Now, that's one guy - but he's pretty high profile and that's one sucky run rate. That certainly suggests that there's a lot of diamonds in the rough out there or unrecognized talents waiting to develop or guys the recruiting raters just plain ol' miss.
At best, recruiting rankings are a weighted gamble - if you took two players in the same position, one rated 4 or 5 stars and one rated either 3 or fewer stars of unrated, there's a slightly higher probability the 4/5 star player will succeed. However, that doesn't mean that the lower rated player won't succeed, and in fact, the chances of that player succeeding are pretty good.
The same parallel can be made with the Patriots. There's only *1* First Round pick on their starting offense. The one that ranked 2nd in the NFL in scoring and yardage and won a Superbowl. Chemistry and fit are important. And, dare I say it?...coaching!
Now, that's not to say BC's spiffy recruiting class will be bust - rather, that the Stanfords, Boston Colleges and Notre Dames of the world have as much chance of success at getting good players as UNL does even with the academic standards at play in those places - not to mention the NCAA rules on academics will be getting more and more strict in the next few years.
And I'll say again, UNL isn't an Ohio State or FSU that will take just anyone, literacy optional if they can tackle or run. The Huskers aren't slouches in the academic department in the least.
IRISH!
bigredtoad
Five-Star Recruit
Great points irish and interesting stats. thanks!
It seems that the plot thickens a bit in Trojan-land concerning Chow.
Chow possibly forced out.
IRISH!
Chow possibly forced out.
IRISH!
Basically, yeah. Though I would add the caveat that recruiting ranked players gives a slight statistical advantage over non-ranked. However, expectations about the difference between a 1 or 2 star player and 4 or 5 star player are a bit exaggerated.
Consider this: every year, out of 971,000 HS players at about 30,000 high schools, about 65,000 go on to play college (in all divisions, that is - including JUCO).
I don't know how many of that HS player pool either never bother with college ball, weren't first or second teamers in High School, dont' go to college at all, etc., but that would reduce the number a bit I'm sure to say, 100k (those who will go to college and of those who go the ones who would play if they could).
Chances are, either you or I or any reasonably edicated football person could sift through those 100k+ players and figure out which ones have some potential at the college levels (if nothing else, ruling out the undersized guys).
That still leaves a pretty large pool to pick the "best" players - the ones which could reasonably play college ball, at least.
At best, the recruiting ranking services can help sort out those 100k players and determine who could play in Div I (about 3,500 or so) but I would say that's about it.
IRISH!
Pedro Guerrero
Team HuskerBoard
This is true about every ranking system in sports. Polls, so called "experts" they are all crapshoots. Nothing is a guarantee. Just because Mel Kiper says someone in the NFL draft is going to be good doesn't make it so. Also if a team is #1 in some poll doesn't mean they will win the Championship. Anyway nice points Irish,
Back to the topic. I don't know if this crap about Chow and Carroll is true, but it is kind of odd. Maybe he just wanted to move up and get a $500,000 raise.