CBSSports: Picking Big Ten Win Total Over/Unders

[Saunders]

The 2017 college football season is less than three months away with media days starting in mid-July to kick-start prediction season among college football writers and analysts. The sportsbooks, however, don't wait for expert picks or preseason previews to start setting the expectations for the fall, releasing title odds and win totals throughout the offseason.

We're going to be making individual team picks for all of the Power Five conferences using the full 130-team FBS list released by the South Point Sportsbook earlier this month.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-win-totals-2017-picks-for-ohio-state-michigan-and-the-big-ten/

Wisconsin -- 10.5 (Under): Another 10.5 win total, but this time for a team without the same pedigree as Ohio State and one that plays in the much easier division. Even so, I can't reasonably go with an over here as Wisconsin's schedule just screams 10-2 to me. And if Wisconsin goes 10-2 this year, it should be thrilled about it.

Iowa -- 7 (Over): Another case where the push seems like the likely outcome. Every time I look through Iowa's schedule, all I see is 7-5, but I'm going to go with the over here. It's more a gut feeling than anything because 6-6 is definitely in play, but I can't help but believe Iowa pulls off an unexpected win somewhere and gets to 8-4.

Nebraska -- 7 (Over): It's a situation similar to that of Michigan. Nebraska has a lot of starters to replace, yes, but this total just feels like an overreaction to that. Assuming Wisconsin is the best team in the West, I'd bet on Nebraska being the second-best before I would go in on any other team in the division.

Key point there.

 

[JJ Husker]

What I always find amusing is that replacing starters is consistently interpreted as a negative. The obvious example is TA being replaced by Tanner or whoever. With this offensive system, how can replacing TA be looked at as anything but a positive? I sometimes wonder if these so called experts are anything of the sort.

 

[MichiganDad3]

What I always find amusing is that replacing starters is consistently interpreted as a negative. The obvious example is TA being replaced by Tanner or whoever. With this offensive system, how can replacing TA be looked at as anything but a positive? I sometimes wonder if these so called experts are anything of the sort.

TA's passing and decision making were questionable, but he was a powerful runner who could make something happen when protection broke down. We had a massive drop off in performance last year after TA's injury. I am not convinced Tanner Lee will be an improvement. He has to be a better passer, but an unproven QB from Tulane is not guaranteed to make the offense better. IMO, the key is how well the O-line protects Lee.

 

[GBRFAN]

What I always find amusing is that replacing starters is consistently interpreted as a negative. The obvious example is TA being replaced by Tanner or whoever. With this offensive system, how can replacing TA be looked at as anything but a positive? I sometimes wonder if these so called experts are anything of the sort.

TA's passing and decision making were questionable, but he was a powerful runner who could make something happen when protection broke down. We had a massive drop off in performance last year after TA's injury. I am not convinced Tanner Lee will be an improvement. He has to be a better passer, but an unproven QB from Tulane is not guaranteed to make the offense better. IMO, the key is how well the O-line protects Lee.

No player is guaranteed to make a team better

however TA was not a solid fit and it showed. When it comes to TL you can be on the side of the fence that he was an average QB at Tulane / or the side of the fence that he has received praise from several high names in the business. We will know more by the beginning of conference play.

 

[JJ Husker]

What I always find amusing is that replacing starters is consistently interpreted as a negative. The obvious example is TA being replaced by Tanner or whoever. With this offensive system, how can replacing TA be looked at as anything but a positive? I sometimes wonder if these so called experts are anything of the sort.

TA's passing and decision making were questionable, but he was a powerful runner who could make something happen when protection broke down. We had a massive drop off in performance last year after TA's injury. I am not convinced Tanner Lee will be an improvement. He has to be a better passer, but an unproven QB from Tulane is not guaranteed to make the offense better. IMO, the key is how well the O-line protects Lee.

I agree the O line will be important (it always is) but I think having the right type of QB alone should make them look much better. TA struggled with quick hit passes, outs, screens, well basically any throw except for the yolo bomb. Pretty tough for a pass first offense to be productive in that situation. I may just being hopeful but I think a QB who can make the reads and throws this offense seems to demand will be a game changer for everything including the O line.

 

[RedDenver]

What I always find amusing is that replacing starters is consistently interpreted as a negative. The obvious example is TA being replaced by Tanner or whoever. With this offensive system, how can replacing TA be looked at as anything but a positive? I sometimes wonder if these so called experts are anything of the sort.

TA's passing and decision making were questionable, but he was a powerful runner who could make something happen when protection broke down. We had a massive drop off in performance last year after TA's injury. I am not convinced Tanner Lee will be an improvement. He has to be a better passer, but an unproven QB from Tulane is not guaranteed to make the offense better. IMO, the key is how well the O-line protects Lee.

I agree the O line will be important (it always is) but I think having the right type of QB alone should make them look much better. TA struggled with quick hit passes, outs, screens, well basically any throw except for the yolo bomb. Pretty tough for a pass first offense to be productive in that situation. I may just being hopeful but I think a QB who can make the reads and throws this offense seems to demand will be a game changer for everything including the O line.

Simply being able to hit a screen pass will make a big difference. The few screens TA did hit last year went for big gains.

 

[MichiganDad3]

Having an immobile QB concerns me. Mobile QBs torched McBride's and Bo's defenses. In 1997 the Nebraska D Dominated every team except Missouri. Corby Jones moved the chains by scrambling over and over. Bo was a good DC as long as the QB was no threat to run. It has been a long time since Nebraska has not had a QB that could take off and get a first down. I hope the OL can protect, and the run game is enough of a threat to slow down the D. I loved the old Nebraska games when the opponent was forced to pass. The opposing QB never had a chance.

 

[RedDenver]

Having an immobile QB concerns me. Mobile QBs torched McBride's and Bo's defenses. In 1997 the Nebraska D Dominated every team except Missouri. Corby Jones moved the chains by scrambling over and over. Bo was a good DC as long as the QB was no threat to run. It has been a long time since Nebraska has not had a QB that could take off and get a first down. I hope the OL can protect, and the run game is enough of a threat to slow down the D. I loved the old Nebraska games when the opponent was forced to pass. The opposing QB never had a chance.

Zac Taylor and Joe Ganz were pretty good.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

I want this line to come out on my site at 7. I love the overs at 7.

Ark St

NIU

Minny

NW

Purdue

Illinois

Those are all gimmies.

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

I want this line to come out on my site at 7. I love the overs at 7.

Ark St

NIU

Minny

NW

Purdue

Illinois

Those are all gimmies.

I thought we weren't using the G-word anymore?

Also, you forgot Rutgers.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

I want this line to come out on my site at 7. I love the overs at 7.

Ark St

NIU

Minny

NW

Purdue

Illinois

Those are all gimmies.

I thought we weren't using the G-word anymore?

Also, you forgot Rutgers.

Ha! I did forget Rutgers, thanks!

I see those games as gimmies and I probably always will. Sadly, it seems like our coaching staff thinks that d!(k Butkus and Red Grange still play for the Illini.

 

[NUinID]

I think there is a lot of worry about TL and I guess it is warranted. He is somewhat unknown. I like him, I like the fact that he knows what he is getting into at Nebraska. He knows it is a pressure cooker and he says bring it on. I like that he knows he needs to be and wants to be a leader. I like what I saw from him in the spring game. Heck I like what I saw from all the QB's in the spring game.

The immobile QB thing gets way overblown on this kid. Some of you guys make it sound like he is 39 year old Payton Manning trying to get away from a sack. No he is not TA, but he is also not Tom Brady slow. The truth is somewhere in the middle. TA bailed early on a lot of plays with his little spin move. A less mobile guy would simply step up in the pocket which TA never did.

I have said this many times since the spring game. Before the game I think Benning was interviewing MR and he was really upbeat and said I really like the way this team is looking. No we have a lot of work to do or some of it looks like football. I think he is really excited about what they have and the potential that they have and I am going to be excited also.

 

[NUinID]

I want this line to come out on my site at 7. I love the overs at 7.

Ark St

NIU

Minny

NW

Purdue

Illinois

Those are all gimmies.

I thought we weren't using the G-word anymore?

Also, you forgot Rutgers.

Ha! I did forget Rutgers, thanks!

I see those games as gimmies and I probably always will. Sadly, it seems like our coaching staff thinks that d!(k Butkus and Red Grange still play for the Illini.

Gimmie is too strong of a word, but those are games that over a 10 year period Nebraska should win 8 of them.

 

[Treand3]

What I always find amusing is that replacing starters is consistently interpreted as a negative. The obvious example is TA being replaced by Tanner or whoever. With this offensive system, how can replacing TA be looked at as anything but a positive? I sometimes wonder if these so called experts are anything of the sort.

TA's passing and decision making were questionable, but he was a powerful runner who could make something happen when protection broke down. We had a massive drop off in performance last year after TA's injury. I am not convinced Tanner Lee will be an improvement. He has to be a better passer, but an unproven QB from Tulane is not guaranteed to make the offense better. IMO, the key is how well the O-line protects Lee.

I agree the O line will be important (it always is) but I think having the right type of QB alone should make them look much better. TA struggled with quick hit passes, outs, screens, well basically any throw except for the yolo bomb. Pretty tough for a pass first offense to be productive in that situation. I may just being hopeful but I think a QB who can make the reads and throws this offense seems to demand will be a game changer for everything including the O line.

For as shaky as the OL has been at times, there have been numerous instances where Tommy felt pressure when there wasn't enough warrant scrambling. Often he'd needlessly gave up on a play to scramble or was afraid to hang in a less than clean pocket to deliver a pass without throwing off his back foot. Most QBs would love a clean pocket but that's not always the reality. The ability to slide, step up or keep his eyes on the field were things he struggled with. Also his propensity to opt for deeper routes rather than allow more shallow routes to develop was maddening, especially if he used better pocket footwork.

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

I want this line to come out on my site at 7. I love the overs at 7.

Ark St

NIU

Minny

NW

Purdue

Illinois

Those are all gimmies.

I thought we weren't using the G-word anymore?

Also, you forgot Rutgers.

Ha! I did forget Rutgers, thanks!

I see those games as gimmies and I probably always will. Sadly, it seems like our coaching staff thinks that d!(k Butkus and Red Grange still play for the Illini.

Gimmie is too strong of a word, but those are games that over a 10 year period Nebraska should win 8 of them.

I agree with this. As a group, they are probably around an 80% probability of Nebraska winning. 90% for some, 70% for some (Northwestern, Minnesota). So with 7 on the schedule, losing to one of them shouldn't be a huge surprise, statistically speaking.

Iowa has been a 50% (Husker win probability) team, but we should be playing them more as a 70% IMO. Wisconsin has been a 30% but we should be playing them as a 50% or 60%. I think those games could go either way this year. Let's say we split them.

And we have a puncher's chance with the trio of tOSU, Oregon and PSU, too. Steal one of those and we have 8 or 9 wins. That's about my expectation.