bshirt
Banned
devnet said:well, it's easy to dismiss statistics on the internet as flimsy and worthless...but I have to say, this guy really does a bang up job on his. The problem is that you can't statistic the intangibles.
As an example, Lavonte David was an intangible. Kickers that don't miss are intangible. QB's that make HUGE improvements 1 year to the next are intangible. A QB on an opposing team throwing 3 interceptions in one game is an intangible. Coaches not making adjustments from one half to the next is an intangible. No amount of stats will EVER account for all of these things.
So while he does have a pretty fair predictor of who the stats show should win...we know, just by the NorthWestern game last year...that it doesn't always happen no matter how confident this guy is.
Hey, I love that site and it's well thought out and his numbers don't lie. He essentially weights recruiting (their last four years) as a huge factor in projecting a team's chances of success. Much more than returning starters. But there are exceptions. Lots of them. KSU, Texas, Florida, Notre Dame, etc. Mostly he credits that to either excellent or very marginal coaching (he's probably right, imo).
He does rip apart the Boise St argument quite nicely that I also fully agree with. Strength of schedule "does" matter a lot in achieving a zero or one loss season.
I find it's a fun read. Now, if only the guy wasn't a Duck fan.....