CFB Selection Committee Rankings (Updated 11/11)
- Thread starter Kernal
- Start date
VA Husker Fan
All-Conference
Count 'Bility
Banned
I dont know why the big ten doesnt offer up home'n'homes with every SEC team out there, win or lose. Then when the SEC denies, run to the press with it. I'm sick of hearing all day about the Big Ten and their weak a$$ scheduling out of conference, like we're the only once scapegoating like the SEC is scheduling world beaters up and down.
RedDenver
Heisman Trophy Winner
I think this point is constantly overlooked. NCAA screwed the pooch by inviting even more criticism on the new system which isn't supposed to be like the old polls.Count 'Bility said:
We're all instinctively treating the committee rankings like the old poll system where teams "moved" up and down the polls. The argument should be "why is Georgia ranked #x" or "why is Oregon ahead of y" not "why did ASU jump z spots".
It's impossible to predict how this will all play out in the end. And we haven't seen the effect of conference champions on the committee selection. I'm waiting for the final ranking to make an informed opinion.
Guy Chamberlin
Heisman Trophy Winner
I think they can do both. Florida State is still rewarded with a Top 4 slot, though the perception is that the team isn't as sharp as last year. FSU still has every chance to prove itself on the field.
Nebraska isn't exactly being punished at #16 -- and may have been jumped too high at #11 -- but the lack of big games and history of big game letdowns is a legitimate perception, one shared by a lot of Husker fans. Nebraska still has every chance to prove itself on the field.
I can absolutely guarantee a witches brew of one and two loss teams who will make the committee's final decision infuriating and unsatisfying even if it's as fair as it could possibly be.
admo
Heisman Trophy Winner
Not sure I can find any argument. A road win at CR will be nice on our resume. On the other hand, by the season end Wisconsin will show 3 losses. Will that really be impressive for us? A little, but I don't think so. Maybe if they had one loss, but no more than 2 at season's end. Poor QB play is noted for them and the loss to NW is a sore eye as well.
I don't expect Minn to upset Ohio State. That's a lot to ride on. Congrats if that happens but then that would give OSU 2 loses. So if Huskers beat them in CCG then OSU has 3 losses with a freshmen QB replacing a Heisman contender. It's nice, but still not very impressive.
OSU should beat Minny and that will give the Gophers 3 losses. Make that 4 for them as long as we beat them. Which is not impressive.
To have a shot and be among discussion is for the Huskers to win out and beat a good "1 loss Urban Meyer Buckeye team". Which holds weight for many people out there. Myself included. Other than that, there really is nothing else we can do about it. And even if we don't get in the tourney with a soft 12-1 record, doing just about everything asked to do, we still will have reached a goal by winning the B1G and playing in a good bowl game to hopefully prove something more. And it gives us some momentum (or steam) heading into next year.
I guess that means that we can look at it as a process for the Huskers to become great. Win out, Win B1G, Win Bowl, then return next year and beat the snot out of BYU in the opener and beat Miami down in South Florida two weeks later. Perception will change with consistent winning and beating other ranked teams.
BigRedBuster
International Man of Mystery
Why don't they force
First week of season = Nebraska vs. MSU
Second week of season = OSU vs. Wisconsin
Third Week of season = Michigan vs. Minnesota
Minus Michigan, these are the teams that have the best chance to finish the year ranked thus probably ranked going into next year. I threw Michigan in there simply because I needed one more team and at least they are a name recognition program. Hopefully they improve.
Right off the bat, we have three teams with quality wins. They will be front and center games in TV for football starved fans and media. The other opponents for these teams in the first 4 weeks of the season need to be not bottom feeders but low to middle of the road power five conference teams. Ones that the winners of these first three games should win.
We then have three teams with quality wins and probably wins over other power five conferences.
They then go into the rest of their conference games against the easier games. The three that win, these three games, have a much better chance of getting very deep into the season before they would lose (if they lose).
The conference gains more respect. We have more ranked high teams. We recruit better because we are viewed as being back to a power conference.
First week of season = Nebraska vs. MSU
Second week of season = OSU vs. Wisconsin
Third Week of season = Michigan vs. Minnesota
Minus Michigan, these are the teams that have the best chance to finish the year ranked thus probably ranked going into next year. I threw Michigan in there simply because I needed one more team and at least they are a name recognition program. Hopefully they improve.
Right off the bat, we have three teams with quality wins. They will be front and center games in TV for football starved fans and media. The other opponents for these teams in the first 4 weeks of the season need to be not bottom feeders but low to middle of the road power five conference teams. Ones that the winners of these first three games should win.
We then have three teams with quality wins and probably wins over other power five conferences.
They then go into the rest of their conference games against the easier games. The three that win, these three games, have a much better chance of getting very deep into the season before they would lose (if they lose).
The conference gains more respect. We have more ranked high teams. We recruit better because we are viewed as being back to a power conference.
HuskerShark
Banned
Let's just say we win out. For simplicity and probability sake, I will just say that if we are 12-1 champions of the B1G, we jump all of the current 2-loss teams, as well as tOSU since they would then have 2 losses. That puts us at #8 already.Kernal said:
Then let's break down the other 7 teams, 4 of which would be in our path to a playoff bid, and see which scenarios would favor us getting in:
1. Mississippi State 9-0
Remaining Schedule:
@ Alabama
vs. Vanderbilt
@ Ole Miss
What I see happening:
What I hope happens and what I believe will happen are different scenarios. I hope Miss. St. wins out, as that would all but ensure that they will be the lone SEC team. My realistic thought, though, is that they will get beat by Bama this weekend, then win their final 2 games, finishing at 11-1 and probably still in the top 4. There is still a scenario where they lose to both Bama and Ole Miss and push themselves out of the playoff conversation.
2. Oregon 9-1
Remaining Schedule:
vs. Colorado
@ Oregon State
What I see happening:
I definitely don't see them dropping either of their last 2 regular season games. They will then likely face the winner of the Arizona-Arizona St game at the end of the year. If it's Arizona State who comes through their last 3 games without a loss, the Pac12 championship will be a play-in round for the playoff. Either one probably gets in before a 1-loss B1G champion. I'll take the ducks winning out and securing a spot in the playoff.
3. Florida State 9-0
Remaining Schedule:
@ Miami
vs. Boston College
vs. Florida
What I see happening:
FSU has shown how vulnerable they are all season long against some pretty weak competition at times, and the writing is on the wall that if they drop just 1 game, they will not be in the playoff. We were able to gash the Canes on the ground, but FSU's running game is very weak. I see them dropping at least 1 of their remaining games - Miami, Florida, or Duke in the CCG.
4. TCU 8-1
Remaining Schedule:
@ Kansas
@ Texas
vs. Iowa State
What I see happening:
This is a pretty weak remaining schedule. They ought to win out and end the season 11-1. Then the question becomes if Baylor also wins out, who gets the playoff spot? Baylor's loss is ugly and TCU has looked like a better team, but Baylor won the head-to-head matchup. It's safe to say the Big 12 will have 1 team get in.
5. Alabama 8-1
Remaining Schedule:
vs. Miss St
vs. W Carolina
vs. Auburn
What I see happening:
The Tide are fortunate to have all of their final 3 games at home, but playing 2 top 10 teams a couple weeks apart is going to be tough for them. I see them dropping at least one of their final games... Probably to W Carolina... JK, but how funny would that be?! You'd have to think that it makes a lot more sense to put a 1-loss B1G champ in the playoff than a 2-loss SEC team. We will see though...
6. Arizona State 8-1
Remaining Schedule:
@ Oregon St
vs. Washington St
@ Arizona
What I see happening:
ASU has a really good team this year. I see them winning out and battling Oregon for the Pac12 championship and a spot in the playoff. The winner of that game will be in, and I think will be Oregon.
7. Baylor 8-1
Remaining Schedule:
vs. Oklahoma State
vs. Texas Tech
vs. Kansas State
What I see happening:
This one will be interesting. They should win out, but then again, nobody (that I know) envisioned them dropping a game to West Virginia by 2 TDs the week after they pulled out a thriller against TCU. Even if they do win out, I'd see the committee going with TCU for the playoff spot, even though Baylor won the head-to-head. That would be difficult, but probably the right thing to do based off their resumes.
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So there's the situation, and here's what the playoff will look like:
SEC Champ - - Big12 Champ - - Pac12 Champ - - ???????
That 4th spot could go to a lot of different teams - Florida State if they win out, a 2nd SEC team, a 2nd Big12 team....
So what we should be rooting for would go like this:
1) Florida State needs to lose to even give us a shot. Period.
2) It would probably be best if Baylor or TCU goes ahead and drops one of their remaining games so the committee isn't tempted to surpass the B1G champion for a 2nd Big12 team. This is pretty improbable, but it would be difficult to choose TCU when Baylor will be crowned conference champs. At the same time, it would be difficult to choose Baylor when their loss is to West Virginia by 2 TDs, since WVU will probably end the regular season with 5 losses.
3) This weekend, I'll be pulling for Mississippi State to beat Bama. That would essentially erase the SEC's hopes of putting 2 teams in the playoff. If Bama wins, I'm rooting for Auburn to upset Bama the last week of the season, or Ole Miss to spoil Miss St's Cinderella season. Bottom line, if FSU drops a game and there are still multiple SEC teams with 0 or 1 loss, that 4th spot will go to the SEC.
So if we win out and these 3 scenarios go our way, we should get a spot. Even if only #1 and #3 happen, we still ought to.
Bottom line, let's just take care of business and at least give ourselves a chance!
GBR!!!
Count 'Bility
Banned
But depending on how we end this year, and with a very young team returning damn near completely intact, we could be in a much better position starting off.
Mierin
Assistant Coach
It doesn't matter as long as we do what we need to, what every team used to need to do, which is go undefeated. Nebraska would be top 5 now if we were undefeated, and top 4 after this week..
the "nice" thing about the 5+3 playoff is that there is no dispute about who those 5 are. This takes much of the "who beat who beat who barely lost to who" crap out if it for most of the playoff. The 3 might come down to a good smaller conf or a team from one of the champions' divisions who may have played them coin-flip close and who deserves another shot. On top of that, there's no need to even worry about the top 5 until the end of the season anyway! There might be rankings to help sort out the +3, but 5 spots are secure for teams that TCoB on their schedule. No need to worry about strength or any subjective measures. Wouldn't that be dreamy?? Just do what you're supposed to and you're in! Its a fantasy, I know.
HUSKERFOREVER38
Banned
FSU plays in the weakest conference with a qb who shouldn't be allowed to still be on the team.And Will drop 1 or 2 games this season.
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