actuarygambler
Walk-on
So much for winning out :-\
CFB Selection Committee Rankings (Updated 11/11)
- Thread starter Kernal
- Start date
T_O_Bull
All-American
On 14 NOV 14 you were living in Never-Never Land. Hope the Pixie Dust has blown off and you have come back to earth.
T_O_B
actuarygambler
Walk-on
I said winning out was a big IF
tschu
Banned
1 Alabama 10-1
2 Oregon 10-1
3 Florida State 11-0
4 Mississippi State 10-1
5 TCU 9-1
6 Ohio State 10-1
7 Baylor 9-1
8 UCLA 9-2
9 Georgia 9-2
10 Michigan State 9-2
11 Arizona 9-2
12 Kansas State 8-2
13 Arizona State 9-2
14 Wisconsin 9-2
15 Auburn 8-3
16 Georgia Tech 9-2
17 Missouri 9-2
18 Minnesota 8-3
19 Ole Miss 8-3
20 Oklahoma 8-3
21 Clemson 8-3
22 Louisville 8-3
23 Boise State 9-2
24 Marshall 11-0
25 Utah 7-4
Minnesota at 18 is flat out egregious. Minnesota over Ole Miss is a joke, as is Minnesota over basically every team below them on the list. And the reason I mention this is that for whatever reason Minnesota is this weird lynchpin for TCU and Ohio State's resumes, so the fact that the committee believes that Minnesota, a team with 3 losses - one of them horrific - and only two sort-of-decent wins (~40th-ranked teams Nebraska and Iowa) is the 18th best team in the nation is frankly alarming.
2 Oregon 10-1
3 Florida State 11-0
4 Mississippi State 10-1
5 TCU 9-1
6 Ohio State 10-1
7 Baylor 9-1
8 UCLA 9-2
9 Georgia 9-2
10 Michigan State 9-2
11 Arizona 9-2
12 Kansas State 8-2
13 Arizona State 9-2
14 Wisconsin 9-2
15 Auburn 8-3
16 Georgia Tech 9-2
17 Missouri 9-2
18 Minnesota 8-3
19 Ole Miss 8-3
20 Oklahoma 8-3
21 Clemson 8-3
22 Louisville 8-3
23 Boise State 9-2
24 Marshall 11-0
25 Utah 7-4
Minnesota at 18 is flat out egregious. Minnesota over Ole Miss is a joke, as is Minnesota over basically every team below them on the list. And the reason I mention this is that for whatever reason Minnesota is this weird lynchpin for TCU and Ohio State's resumes, so the fact that the committee believes that Minnesota, a team with 3 losses - one of them horrific - and only two sort-of-decent wins (~40th-ranked teams Nebraska and Iowa) is the 18th best team in the nation is frankly alarming.
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Hedley Lamarr
All-American
Mierin
Assistant Coach
Again, conditional probability. Nothing about what has happened means actuarygambler's calculations were wrong.
tschu
Banned
Two things that blew me away about Jeff Long's explanations. The first is that suddenly, out of nowhere, he brought up that the committee is judging a win or loss by the rank of your opponent at the time of the game. That is utterly inexcusable. There is simply no defending that sort of voluntary ineptitude. So FSU is getting credit for wins against like #15 OSU and #5 Notre Dame? Mississippi State gets credit for a road win at #6 Texas A&M? And on and on. The beauty about trying to sort through a totally asymmetric schedule is that as the season goes on, we have more data points (games). Our assessments get more accurate and we're able to look back and say that we were off base about certain teams, underrated or overrated. But no, we're going to throw that out the window. So does Ohio State get more credit for beating Minnesota than TCU does?? It doesn't make a single bit of sense.
Which brings me to my second point which was that Long repeatedly talked about "wins over ranked teams" as if somehow there's this enormous drop from #25 to #26. You should get roughly the same amount of "credit" for a win over #26 as you should #25. The cutoff is arbitrary and pointless given that team quality exists on a continuum. Each win should be looked at based on the merit of the opponent on this continuum, whether that team is 10 or 15 or 20 or 25, 26, or 27. And especially when you combine the two points, suddenly the committee has lost a ton of credibility this week.
It's disappointing, too. I thought they did a great job most of the season and I think they nailed the top 7 teams in their rankings. But to hear them use such backwards logic is alarming and disconcerting to say the least.
I have the feeling that the whole "conference championship" wild card is really going to be an adventure next week.
Which brings me to my second point which was that Long repeatedly talked about "wins over ranked teams" as if somehow there's this enormous drop from #25 to #26. You should get roughly the same amount of "credit" for a win over #26 as you should #25. The cutoff is arbitrary and pointless given that team quality exists on a continuum. Each win should be looked at based on the merit of the opponent on this continuum, whether that team is 10 or 15 or 20 or 25, 26, or 27. And especially when you combine the two points, suddenly the committee has lost a ton of credibility this week.
It's disappointing, too. I thought they did a great job most of the season and I think they nailed the top 7 teams in their rankings. But to hear them use such backwards logic is alarming and disconcerting to say the least.
I have the feeling that the whole "conference championship" wild card is really going to be an adventure next week.
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VA Husker Fan
All-Conference
Sometimes it does make sense. Sometimes a team gets worse because of injuries, or just loses all their mojo after a loss or two. Notre Dame certainly looks like a beaten team now, and while you can say that FSU didn't really beat a #5 team, that was a better win back then than it would be to beat ND now. I didn't hear Long talk tonight, but I'd hope they just give a little consideration to where teams were at the time, but not make that their basis. Because mostly you're right, as the season goes on, you learn more about every team, and more about what the value of those early wins and losses really are.