CFN.com Big 12 Championship Preview

GSG

Assistant Coach
2010 Big 12 Championship 

Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

By Pete Fiutak

Of course it’s Oklahoma vs. Nebraska in the last Big 12 Championship game for the foreseeable future.

Up until the creation of the Big 12 in 1996, Oklahoma vs. Nebraska was the rivalry of rivalries. Even though the Sooners hit some hard times in the 1990s, and even though the juggernaut Huskers applied a 73-21 pasting in the first year of the league, the theory was that the enormity of the matchup would survive and that the two powerhouses would soon be playing on an even bigger stage for the conference title on a regular basis. Instead, the two teams played just nine times over the last 15 years and the greatness of the game was killed. Even in the monster battle in 2001, with national title implications back on the table for both teams, it wasn’t quite the same, while the 2006 Big 12 Championship meeting felt more like a high school reunion. Everyone kind of looked the same, and it was nostalgic, but the magic was gone.

For younger fans, it’s hard to adequately describe what Oklahoma vs. Nebraska meant to college football a few decades ago. In some way, it used to be the game the college football season revolved around, since it almost always determined the national title, or at least it made a big difference in the overall pecking order, and it was always a battle of heavyweights. For example, in 1987, Nebraska had outscored its Big 8 opponents 173 to 15 in the five conference game before the OU showdown, while the Sooners were even more dominant outscoring their opponents 462 to 75 in the first nine games of the season while not allowing more than 14 points until the Orange Bowl loss to Miami. OU won a 17-7 classic, and that was just one chapter in the story.

However, as is almost always the case, the memories tend to be a bit better than reality. Both programs might have been tremendous, but they also fattened up on a steady diet of creamy-soft Big 8 teams. It wasn’t like the Big 12 is now. Kansas State was miserable, Kansas and Iowa State weren’t on the map, Missouri had a decent year here and there, but wasn’t consistent, and Colorado didn’t become Colorado until the late 80s. But each team almost always played a few decent non-conference games to flex a little bit of muscle, and almost no one could match the athletes amassed in Norman or the power in Lincoln. And now, these two will go out with one final bang.

For Nebraska, parting is hardly sweet sorrow. Quickly, the program became unhappy as the Big 12 became all about Texas and the Big 12 South. Depending on who you believe, either Nebraska wasn’t getting its butt kissed enough for being Nebraska, or it was simply a case of Texas and Oklahoma becoming better. When the Big Ten came calling, the truth started to spill about how happy the program was to get out. A win would be a particularly nice parting shot to the old league, while Big Ten fans could quickly start to talk about how they have three teams in the BCS.

This has been a good year for the Huskers, but even with the possibility of a Big 12 Championship, it’s not going to quite meet the hopes and dreams of Big Red fans who thought this might be a year when the program made a national title return to glory. After coming within a missed field goal of shocking Texas in last year’s title game, the bar was set higher this year with a loaded defense returning, an improved offense, and a dream schedule with all the supposedly big games at home.

The home loss to Texas was a complete and utter disaster, while the penalty-fest in a 9-6 loss at Texas A&M was a major disappointment. Even with the nice record, the league’s No. 1 running game, and the nation’s fifth best defense, this hasn’t been a dominating team. The wins over Oklahoma State and Missouri were excellent, but that’s been about it, and it’ll take a win against the Sooners for the season to be special.

It’s the fourth Big 12 Championship game in five years for OU and the seventh in nine years. Considering how prominent Texas has been, and how much noise it makes on a national scale, the Sooners have owned the conference for the last decade. Now they’re looking to carry the torch of Big 12 pride before next year’s configuration kicks in. The last thing the league wants is for Nebraska to leave as the reigning Big 12 champion, and that, along with missing out on the title game last year, should add a little extra incentive. 6-1 in Big 12 title games, Bob Stoops is on the verge of taking his legendary status to another level with a win. He still has a long way to go to match Barry Switzer’s 12 titles or Bud Wilkinson’s 14, but a reasonable argument could be made that he’s been the best coach of the last decade.

This year’s team needed half the season to find its groove, but it did just enough when it had to. Early games against Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati were a bit too rocky, and a blowout of Florida State seemed like a bit of a tease. But when the team was on, it was really on, blasting away on Iowa State, Colorado, Texas Tech and Baylor. A strange, uneven loss to Texas A&M was the only blip over the last five weeks scoring 43 points in four of the last five games since the loss to Missouri knocked OU out of the BCS No. 1 spot. There’s no denying the explosiveness of the talent, but the consistency hasn’t been there and it took a while before Oklahoma became Oklahoma. It took a tie-breaker in the Big 12 South to get to this point, and now the Sooners have the look of a hot team ready to take advantage of the opportunity.

OU or Nebraska has been a part of 12 of 15 title games, and out of the 30 teams that have played in the championships, these two have accounted for 14. Considering how much of a factor Texas is, with this game, Nebraska will have played in as many Big 12 Championships as the Longhorns (5), while OU will have played in three more. The historical problem for Nebraska is that the South has owned the game, going 10-4 overall and 6-0 since Kansas State’s shocking 35-7 drubbing of the Sooners in 2003. Last year’s game was an aberration; the Big 12 Championship is usually a crashing dud.

Only four of the 14 games have been decided by fewer than ten points, and while the first one, a 37-27 Texas win over Nebraska, was a thriller, and the 1998 Texas A&M double overtime win over Kansas State and the 39-37 Colorado win over Texas in 2001 were all-timers, the title game has been defined more by the dominant wins. Before last year, the previous seven games were decided by a final score of 297 to 65, or an average of 42 to 9, with the closest battle the OU 21-7 win over the Huskers in 2006. The bigger problem for Nebraska is the upset factor. Over the last 11 games, the lower ranked team is 3-8, and one of those wins was in 2007 when OU beat a No. 1 Missouri team that few thought could win.

For it is, what is was, and what it could be as a fascinating non-conference game if the two teams ever try to get together in the future, and enjoy the official end of the Big 12 Championship. And enjoy the end of Oklahoma vs. Nebraska.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1027469.html

2010 Big 12 Championship 

Nebraska vs. OU, Part 2

Players to Watch: It could be this simple. Either Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez is playing, and effective, or this could be an ugly blowout. The Huskers simply don’t have the firepower to keep up in a firefight with Cody Green under center, but they might not have a choice. A burgeoning Heisman candidate early on this year with three straight 100-yard rushing games to open the season, and a scintillating 241-yard, four touchdown evening on the ground against Kansas State, Martinez got dinged up and was never quite right ever since. He had one phenomenal performance against Oklahoma State, throwing for 323 yards and five touchdowns while running for 112, but he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since the win over the Wildcats, a span of seven games, he was awful against Texas, and he has been limited against everyone else. Gimpy at very best with a bum ankle, and having injury problems throughout the second half of the year, it'll be a bonus if he gives the Huskers anything.

While Martinez is questionable, Oklahoma star running back DeMarco Murray is expected to play after suffering a knee injury against Oklahoma State. While it’s not a 100% lock the senior will play, the coaching staff appears to be optimistic. Murray is winding up an interesting career with 3,524 rushing yards, 1,512 receiving yards, and 64 total touchdowns, but he has never been able to stay healthy. After missing the 2007 Big 12 title game with an injured knee, and getting hurt on the opening kickoff of the 2008 championship, this is his chance to finally make his mark on the biggest conference stage. OU is 13-0 over the last four years when he runs for 100 yards or more.

Both teams will send plenty of players to the pros, but the matchup all the scouts will be watching will be Thorpe Award finalist, Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara, when he lines up on Bilitnikoff finalist, Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles. Amukamara is 6-1 and 205 pounds with great size, phenomenal speed, great recovery skills and excellent ball hawking ability, and while he hasn’t picked off a pass this year, he has broken up a whopping 13 passes to go along with a solid 50 tackles. If LSU’s Patrick Peterson isn’t the first corner taken in the draft, it’ll be Amukamara. Broyles isn’t nearly the same sort of NFL prospect, he’s not big enough, but he has yet to be stopped this season. The nation’s leading receiver is OU’s first 100-catch player with 115 grabs for 1,391 yards and 13 touchdowns. Held to 74 yards on eight catches against the Huskers in last year’s 10-3 loss, he has been on a tear ever since with 18 touchdowns in his last 16 games.

Nebraska will win if ... the defense channels its 2009 self. There isn’t a Ndamukong Suh on the Husker defensive front who can use OU QB Landry Jones as a throw pillow, like Suh did with Colt McCoy last year, but the pass defense is second in the nation while the run defense has allowed just 147 yards per game. Week after week, star quarterbacks like Washington’s Jake Locker, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, and Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill, have been shut down cold by the Husker D, and Jones might be in for the same fate. The Huskers might not generate too many sacks, but they have a way of making high-powered passing teams sputter by swarming around every short pass and not allowing anything deep.

Offensively, Nebraska has to get the running backs going. Even if Martinez is able to play, the team can’t rely on him for a full sixty minutes so it’ll be up to Red Burkhead and Roy Helu, Jr. to control the clock and the game. It’s a simple stat: if Nebraska doesn’t run for 200 yards, it loses, and this year, when it doesn’t run for at least 250 yards, it struggles. In the two losses, the Huskers ran for just 125 yards against Texas and 142 against A&M, while supposed layups against South Dakota State (205 yards), Iowa State (235 yards), and Kansas (230 yards), and the battle with Oklahoma State (217 yards), were all too close for comfort. Oklahoma gives up 152 rushing yards per game and has allowed more than 200 in just three games, all wins.

Oklahoma will win if ... it gets up early and Nebraska has to throw to come back. It’s not that the Huskers can’t throw, the quarterbacks combined to complete 15-of-19 passes for 142 yards and touchdowns against Colorado last week, but it’s not the preferred mode of transportation ranking last in the Big 12 in passing. This isn’t a team built for comebacks, and it hasn’t been able to do so. The only two times the offense had to rally were in the two losses, and it didn’t work out so hot. Even though Nebraska’s defense is phenomenal against the pass, OU’s balanced offense has the ability to simply outbomb the Huskers. The Sooners have the ability to hang 35 on the board in this game if everything clicks for a stretch, while Nebraska doesn’t.

OU also has the ability and the potential to negate a normally huge Nebraska advantage: the punt return game. Field position is at a premium for a Nebraska offense that might not have the punch to put up yards in chunks, but with star return man Niles Paul out with a foot injury, OU should be able keep the game on the other end of the field if Tress Way, who’s averaging 44 yards per kick, has a big game. Nebraska’s Alex Henery is a special placekicker, and he also came up with a fantastic game against Colorado putting three of his four kicks inside the 20. However, Broyles, who averaged 17 yards per punt return in last year’s game against the Huskers, should be a difference maker if he gets the chance.

What will happen: Nebraska won’t have the horses. The gameplan will be to turn the defense loose, pound away with the ground game, and hope for the OU mistakes to come, and while Landry Jones and the attack won’t go wild, it’ll be a balanced, patient game that takes advantage of every opportunity. Oklahoma might have plenty of three-and-outs, but it won’t give up enough big turnovers for Nebraska to ever take control. The active Sooner defensive line will outplay the Nebraska offensive front, but not enough to make this a blowout. It’s Oklahoma outside of its state’s borders; it’s going to be close.

CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 26 … Nebraska 20 ... Line: Oklahoma -4
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1027471.html

 
Back
Top