To be fair, as a fanbase we have spent the last 15 years justifying early wins or close losses with "maybe that team is good this year!" And this is the first time I can recall where that was the case. 2023 Colorado went 4-8, 2021 Illinois went 5-7, 2018-19 Colorado went 5-7, etc. Technically 2018 Troy was pretty good (10-3), but that doesn't make me feel better about it.
So people were too quick to dismiss the Cincy win, but I think they can be forgiven for when the last time I remember the early season challenge being a legitimately good and better than expected team was maybe 2012 UCLA? 1999 Southern Miss? '96 Arizona State is the classic example of what felt like a terrible loss that actually was ok in hindsight. Teams also grow or fade over the season so sometimes a loss to a team that ends up with a bad record isn't as bad as it looks after the season. But trying to convince myself 2022 NW and Georgia Southern could be on the upswing broke something in me, and it absolutely makes it hard to believe teams like Cincy and even to a lesser degree NW are actually good when we beat them.