Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

N is for nowledge said:
Yep totally legit.  Nothing to see here, just accurate “models” proven inaccurate by the day and by the hour.  Btw, all the models built in social distancing measures taken since early to mid March.
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Each time they adjust the model they take new social distancing measures into account on the state level. Projections change as they receive more data and adjust based on new social distancing measures. Things have changed drastically since mid March in many states. You are also making a big assumption that when they apply the models they are creating don't take population density into account. Using Italy/NY to create the models doesn't mean they can't bring in other relevant information.

US social distancing policies

o We continue to receive feedback on the implementation status of social distancing measures. A key area of discussion is how to distinguish properly between clearly mandated actions versus recommendations. To date we have primarily focused on statewide mandates rather than actions where residents are advised or encouraged to follow, and/or when orders are only applicable to specific areas (e.g., counties with community spread) or specific sub-populations (e.g., individuals 70 and older).

o Some updates since March 31 reflect locations where these social distancing measures have been more nuanced. For instance, we now classify Kentucky having implemented school closures upon March 20. The governor had issued recommendations on March 16. Local school districts followed this recommendation, and by March 20, all 172 had closed and transitioned to remote learning.
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N is for nowledge said:
Systems are prepping for peak so yes 37k vs 16K is off substantially.  This is why governors are saying don’t have enough “x”.  Reserving beds, furloughing healthcare workers because they are looking at this model.  They have to prep for the peak, a peak that will never come
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Do you understand confidence intervals?

 
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Something I've noticed here in Southern Colorado..... I help manage a liquor store right off the highway, across the street from 5 marijuana shops. Here in Colorado we have a stay at home, no out of state visitors order in place. Still, by the hundreds every day, we see license plates from all corners of this country. Mainly Texas. At what point are they going to stop the mass tourism? Is the revenue that important? I know the marijuana industry helped save our dying town, but it needs to be shut down for now because it just wont stop. 

 


That's going to be the best way to count these deaths, in the future when this is all done. We're so vastly under-testing and behind in our knowledge of this disease that we're going to have to look at the stats to see how mortality changed.

 
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I think what we are doing now is the correct way to go about things, but we cannot sit inside forever. There are millions and millions of people without jobs --- the bills don't go away. A few months people can make due, but you can't do that for 6+ months. I think for April and May you stay at home. June you let some people go back to work. July more people. August you let more. September you would basically be back to normal (for the most part). I just hope people realize the virus will not be gone and more people will get it.

The point was not to overwhelm the hospitals with the initial hit. 

 
Dont know why everyone is worried.  South Dakota's governor requested everyone pray yesterday to help with the virus.  All should be good soon, and yes this was the most action she has taken 

 
Bigred_inSD said:
Dont know why everyone is worried.  South Dakota's governor requested everyone pray yesterday to help with the virus.  All should be good soon, and yes this was the most action she has taken 
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Hmm... serious question, are you mocking the governor, the power of prayer, Christianity as a whole or all 3?

 
Bigred_inSD said:
Dont know why everyone is worried.  South Dakota's governor requested everyone pray yesterday to help with the virus.  All should be good soon, and yes this was the most action she has taken 
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hopefully the relative low population density of S Dakota helps.   not sure if that will work as i assume people still get the flu up there as well and many are immunized against that.   this virus has no vaccine. 

 
commando said:
hopefully the relative low population density of S Dakota helps.   not sure if that will work as i assume people still get the flu up there as well and many are immunized against that.   this virus has no vaccine. 
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The numbers say we wont hit our peak until late May or June and it is hard to say if the low population will help.

Numbers continue to grow but that's expected with more testing.  The biggest difference right now is the number of cases in east river compared to west river ( if you know anyone from the state this is a big thing we fight over, lol)

 
Bigred_inSD said:
The numbers say we wont hit our peak until late May or June and it is hard to say if the low population will help.

Numbers continue to grow but that's expected with more testing.  The biggest difference right now is the number of cases in east river compared to west river ( if you know anyone from the state this is a big thing we fight over, lol)
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my father was from Milbank.  We spent a lot of time up there fishing in Big Stone lake.   but i haven't spent any time any further west then there.

 
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