Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[84HuskerLaw]

Do you realize that this long response with lots of numbers and fancy words is loaded mostly with your personal unprofessional speculation and does nothing to refute my post? 

I weep for your law clients.

We could talk about the likelihood that COVID-19 deaths are actually under-reported, but we should move that over to P&R. 

Just to sum this up: there's a lot we don't know. A lot at stake. Tough choices to make. 

Not so much opinion as basic arithmetic based on the numbers readily available and simple deduction.  The reports are all over about the duration of the typical covid illness (about 21 days).   Total cases is all the reported cases (mostly by testing) of sick people.  Studies by multiple reputable orgs such as USC, Stanford, Boston College, Yale, etc - Drs, scientists etc - indicate that vast uncounted cases of people who had the virus but didnt know it or werent tested etc.  Thus the 37 multiplier I used in the middle of their projections.  

Even without any of these millions of cases, the mortality rate is low. Most of the deaths and most serious sick patients are older and or otherwise sick from other problems.  They are not college aged athletes. Not opinion - facts.  

We need to protect those at real measurable risk while assuring we dont hurt the lives of the young and healthy.  The young have to live and support themselves for generations yet to come.  They have children to care for and provide for long after the virus has been controlled or tamed if not defeated. 

We do agree on the general ideas on this topic but the virus - so far. - is not anything like it was portrayed.  Destroying the futures of tens of millions of the young is unjustified.  

 

[Mavric]

Closed Cases simply compiles the people who have been diagnosed with COVID and either recovered or died. The outcome for recovery is that they are no longer being treated for COVID and have been discharged with a clean bill of health. It's a moving window, but it's always accurate for the compiled list of closed cases on any given day. Knowing that there are another 1.2 million active cases moving through the system allows you to track the strength of the virus and/or the success of treatment. Fatality rate was definitely higher in March when fewer cases could be added to Recovered and hospitals were overwhelmed, but given that the fatality rate continues to drop suggests framing it this way doesn't make it look worse, it actually makes it look better. Naturally we won't know the final tally until it's all over, but the whole thing is a moving target. 100,000 deaths in three months suggests it wasn't hype, nothing really misleading. At the same time, we have to move forward. I think we're all telling the same story.

And thus numbers like that aren't really helpful until it's all over.  They aren't false.  But very misleading.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

We do agree on the general ideas on this topic but the virus - so far. - is not anything like it was portrayed.  Destroying the futures of tens of millions of the young is unjustified.  

The virus so far is very much like it was portrayed by professional epidemiologists --- more contagious than some pandemics, less deadly than others, capable of overwhelming healthcare systems if left unchecked, but manageable with certain precautions. It has always been portrayed as most directly affecting the elderly and already compromised.  It has also been portrayed as a pandemic in progress, meaning there's a lot we still don't know, and concerns based on previous pandemics remain. Like a wide variety of governments around the world, the U.S. implemented drastic measures and still lost 100,000 people in three months. That validates the measures, it doesn't discount them.

Again, everyone wants to move forward and we've been opening back up for the last month. I'd just like to tap the brakes on this narrative suggesting the coronavirus turned out to be hype and the scientists aren't to be trusted. 

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

And thus numbers like that aren't really helpful until it's all over.  They aren't false.  But very misleading.

They are only misleading if you attach them to a false conclusion. They pretty helpful for seeing where we are in the moment. You don't need to make any sweeping conclusions, but you wouldn't want to wait till it's over to learn some lessons.  

 

[Mavric]

They are only misleading if you attach them to a false conclusion. They pretty helpful for seeing where we are in the moment. You don't need to make any sweeping conclusions, but you wouldn't want to wait till it's over to learn some lessons.  

Yes, they are misleading.  Saying 13% of cases result in death is misleading.  It's only after you dig into the numbers deeper and find out how they are getting to that number that you really understand what that number is saying.  Which is nothing.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Yes, they are misleading.  Saying 13% of cases result in death is misleading.  It's only after you dig into the numbers deeper and find out how they are getting to that number that you really understand what that number is saying.  Which is nothing.

FFS....there's no digging involved. Of the 800,000 U.S. COVID-19 cases that have currently been RESOLVED -- meaning either death or successful discharge — 87% have survived and 13% have died. You are free to make of that what you want, but it's not nothing. 

And if we have to wait until it's all over to deduce anything, then let's stop posting stats altogether. 

 

[krc1995]

FFS....there's no digging involved. Of the 800,000 U.S. COVID-19 cases that have currently been RESOLVED -- meaning either death or successful discharge — 87% have survived and 13% have died. You are free to make of that what you want, but it's not nothing. 

And if we have to wait until it's all over to deduce anything, then let's stop posting stats altogether. 

What question are you trying answer with your statistical analysis? Is it what is the death rate among confirmed cases of Covid? Maybe we’re Just talking different languages

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[Mavric]

FFS....there's no digging involved. Of the 800,000 U.S. COVID-19 cases that have currently been RESOLVED -- meaning either death or successful discharge — 87% have survived and 13% have died. You are free to make of that what you want, but it's not nothing. 

So what conclusion are you supposed to draw from those numbers?

And if we have to wait until it's all over to deduce anything, then let's stop posting stats altogether. 

No, just not misleading ones.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

What question are you trying answer with your statistical analysis? 

The question was how I arrived at my statistical analysis. It was a pretty simple discussion at the beginning, then quickly became less so. 

My premise was that the coronavirus is a public health concern. 

 

[funhusker]

I could not imagine being a landlord in some places right now.  My buddy lives in a complex in Cali...and before all this even started his fellow renters already started a group chat about never paying rent again.  He was like "Ummm, why?  If you can pay your rent, you should be paying" 

We homeowners should do that too! If we all a got together and agreed to never pay mortgage payments again, the banks would have no cash to pay attorneys to do the paperwork to foreclose all our houses.  

If we all pull out our savings and checkings the month prior, stop mortgage payments, and let the banks fold we'd all be set! I don't see what could go wrong!

:sarcasm

 

[teachercd]

We homeowners should do that too! If we all a got together and agreed to never pay mortgage payments again, the banks would have no cash to pay attorneys to do the paperwork to foreclose all our houses.  

If we all pull out our savings and checkings the month prior, stop mortgage payments, and let the banks fold we'd all be set! I don't see what could go wrong!

:sarcasm

I am soooo in!!!

My buddy was totally shocked at his a$$h@!e apt "friends" They were all just looking for that freebie.  

 

[twofittyonred]

When your a leader you have to make hard decisions. Get all the facts, and make an informed decision that weighs all the risks and rewards. Majority of the country is trending towards the lesser of two evils which is re-opening the economy. Some were meant to lead and others were meant to follow- then complain about the decisions. Its been that way since forever. We need to do what is best for the 99% not the 1%. Look at all the factors that lead to the deaths of the 1% and protect that demographic of people. Then let the other 99% of folks continue living their lives and keeping the world out of depression. I am sure some folks who are making more on the current unemployment benefits would love the lockdown to last forever. But that is not what's best for everyone.

aww how cute... he's back to 1%...

 

[twofittyonred]

And the death rate just went down 1% in the last 48 hours. That's actually encouraging. 

according to some, we should be at 0% death rate then.....    :sarcasm

 

[knapplc]

Hey, folks. Keep social distancing. Keep wearing your masks. We ain't remotely out of the woods on this.

Just because something else is dominating the headlines doesn't mean we're not dealing with Covid-19 anymore.