"Dance Card" model has Nebraska a 100% lock for the NCAA tournament

[knapplc]

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 9, 2014, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

A bunch of teams not relevant to this thread are listed. At #41:

Rank - 41

Team - Nebraska

Dance Card - 5.7428

Chance of Bid - 100.00%

RPI Rank - 44

 

[redout22]

Lets hope its right! The only thing that can hurt us at this point is some mid-major team could sneak in and steal a bid by winning their conference.

 

[VectorVictor]

Had posted this right after Knapplc posted this (via Deadspin):

Here's the link

First developed by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch back in the late 90s (although it's gone through a couple iterations since then), the "dance card" predicts which teams will get selected as an at-large using the same basic data points put in front of the committee. Many of the most predictive variables are pretty obvious (the committee cares about RPI and wins against the top 25), but it does turn out that teams take a major penalty for every game they are below .500 in road and conference play, much larger than the boost they get for each game they are above .500. Not good news for bubble teams like Minnesota, which sits at just 8-10 in conference and 4-7 on the road.

Per the comments, the only one it got wrong was Drexel getting a bid in 2012 instead of Iona. Also, I believe the 'burst line' can move up or down, so we're not a 'lock', but we're pretty damn close to one.

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By the way, isn't it nice to be able to post bracketology-related materials in the 'Nebraska Basketball' section instead of the 'Other Sports' or 'Big Ten' sections of the board?

 

[hskrfan4life]

So ready to see what we can do in the Big Ten Tournament. Nebraska can't leave until less than 24 hours before game-time but Miles can see the Ohio State - Purdue game in person.

 

[NUpolo8]

Nebrasketball is a saying now nationally. Which is absolutely amazing.

 

[Foppa]

Who would've thought that NU would have to wonder what some minor conferences were doing to get into the big dance?

Ah screw it. Just win the B1G tourney, Huskers. GBR.

 

[Mierin]

But the link says it's if selection Sunday was today. We could still lose to Purdue. And it doesn't say that they got it 100% right a week before selection Sunday last year. It never clarifies the date. If I had to guess I'd say their prediction was made after all the games were played.

 

[SouthLincoln Husker]

Everyone has an opinion or a model, but a committee makes the final selection.

 

[VectorVictor]

But the link says it's if selection Sunday was today. We could still lose to Purdue. And it doesn't say that they got it 100% right a week before selection Sunday last year. It never clarifies the date. If I had to guess I'd say their prediction was made after all the games were played.

Moiraine, RTA. This model has only one miss in the past two years.

 

[gratefullred]

Lets hope its right! The only thing that can hurt us at this point is some mid-major team could sneak in and steal a bid by winning their conference.

Witicha St won the Valley, that's good. Some one could steal a bid out of a power conference also, the SEC has some history of an unexpected winning the conf tourney.

 

[Mierin]

But the link says it's if selection Sunday was today. We could still lose to Purdue. And it doesn't say that they got it 100% right a week before selection Sunday last year. It never clarifies the date. If I had to guess I'd say their prediction was made after all the games were played.

Moiraine, RTA. This model has only one miss in the past two years.

I'm aware of that, but did you read my post? As far as I can see it never says on what date it made the prediction last year. Seeing as they update this every day, I'm pretty sure they made the prediction the day before the selection, which means they're doing almost nothing meaningful. It says "the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday." They can change that every single day and then predict it one day before the bracket comes out and then next year write their little thing where they say "We got all of them right!" and fail to say that the date in which they were right was the day after all games had been played.

Btw, I'm not arguing that we're probably in. I just think the site is misleading. It isn't predicting who will be selected on selection Sunday. It's predicting who will be selected if their records are what they are right now, which they won't be. They update the page every day. They don't claim they were accurate a week or two or three before the tournament because that would be a lie, so they just leave out the fact that they predicted it the day before, which isn't that difficult. I'm guessing every site that does bracketology was 95% accurate or higher. This site just managed to make it sound more exciting by leaving out some information.

I have no idea what RTA means.

 

[redout22]

That 100% lock doesn't look too promising

 

[commando]

updated this morning...we are still in as of now but it is getting close

42 BYU 4.5021 100.00% 35 43 California 4.0765 100.00% 55 44 Nebraska 3.8832 99.99% 48 45 Iowa 3.2079 99.93% 52 46 Oklahoma St. 3.1270 99.91% 41 47 Southern Miss 2.2875 98.89% 42 *** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE *** 48 SMU 1.4351 92.44% 59 49 North Carolina St. 0.5849 72.07% 49 50 Minnesota -0.3121 37.75% 39

 

[Mavric]

The bracket-predicting model developed by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch had another strong performance in 2014, and has now predicted 108 of 110 at-larges over the last three seasons. The only miss was N.C. State, which the model put outside of the bubble, in favor of California.

Deadspin