Do We Have the Talent We Need?

QMany said:
@Mavric, I'm curious, why did you break it down 2015-2018 and then 2019-2020? Doesn't that imply the 2018 class and its shortcomings are somehow on Riley, not Frost? 

Riley inherited classes ranked:

  • 35th
  • 22nd
  • 32nd

Frost inherited classes ranked:

  • 23rd
  • 26th
  • 30th

Riley went 19-19; Frost is 11-20.

I recall this same "Do we have the talent?" conversation during the last regime. We did, we do; we still don't have the coaching, playcalling, clock management, player development, etc. 
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I know the angry fans hate this argument, but Frost is 11-20 and could very easily be something like 17-14. Riley was 19-19 and very easily could've been 10-28. I really do understand the wins are what counts. But for the long term prognosis it does matter how close/far we are, and Frost has been close to 7-8 wins the past couple years. I get the W/L argument, but I firmly stand by the view that Riley's teams were worse than their record and Frost's have been better.

I'm much more confident moving forward with a 2-5 team that advanced stats say is in the 30-40 range than 2016's 9-4 team that was ranked in the 60s. In everything except record we trended down consistently under Riley - the 4-8 team in 2017 was below 100th. I'm not happy about consistent losing seasons under Frost, but the underlying numbers look good and I'm willing to see if that comes to fruition. In any case, do you feel better about being able to solve penalty/turnover mistakes, or figuring out a way to not let a D2 LB run for 200 yards as a QB? We have come a long way, and it sucks that the record doesn't show it. I'm betting it will before long.

 
QMany said:
@Mavric, I'm curious, why did you break it down 2015-2018 and then 2019-2020? Doesn't that imply the 2018 class and its shortcomings are somehow on Riley, not Frost? 

Riley inherited classes ranked:

  • 35th
  • 22nd
  • 32nd

Frost inherited classes ranked:

  • 23rd
  • 26th
  • 30th

Riley went 19-19; Frost is 11-20.

I recall this same "Do we have the talent?" conversation during the last regime. We did, we do; we still don't have the coaching, playcalling, clock management, player development, etc. 
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2015 class (Remove Stevenson, Alston, Talan, & Snyder, transferred; Decker & Barnett, Retired; Jackson left team) which moves them to the 51st class, it also means 15/22 will finish/finished their career.

2016 Class  (Remove O'Brien, Brokop, Alexander, Spielman, Butler, Grim, Lightbourn Transferred; Bryan, Simmons, Jefferson, Engelhaupt, Raridon Retire) which moves the class to 84th.  9/20 finishes career here.

2017 Class (Remove Lindsey, Blade, Robert, Gebbia, Thomas, Hampton, Ward, Miles, Transfer; Mcquitty, Johnson, Retire; Watts didn't make it) class becomes 95th. 9/20 will finish career at Nebraska, and the 6 best players left the program. 

That's what Riley left Frost. A total of 33 players out of 62. That doesn't even count non-contributors.

 
On the flipside, Frost's patchwork for 2018 became this:

(Pickering, McGriff, Jones x2, Woodyard, Bell, Transferred; Washington, Smith, Retired; Watt, Canty, Legrone (didn't make it), JUCO; Hunt, Jail?) class becomes 63rd. 13/26.

2019 class [Chase, Transferred; Bland (Didn't make it)] as of now 26/28 will graduate from UNL. It also still holds the #19 spot.

2020 class (Greene, Gray, Francois, Transfer; Fleming, Delancy, Portal) class finishes 27th. As of now 20/25 will graduate from UNL. Also, it's been an incredibly rough year, and half these transfers could probably be chalked up to COVID.

Frost has 59/79, which is a 75% rate compared to Riley's 53% on the graduation rate. Again, none of this counts contribution, but does matter when you look at our current depth, and the youth playing for this team.

 
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So how does this 2021 class contribute to the talent level?  3 four star guys and the balance being 3 stars.   I think the TE , Fidone, and OL, Prochazka,  4 star guys are great additions.   The 4 star OLB, Kpai, I'm not as familiar with - seems to be a bit light for the position.  Perhaps S&C can get him bigger in size. 

I expect to see Fidone on the field next year. 

 
TGHusker said:
So how does this 2021 class contribute to the talent level?  3 four star guys and the balance being 3 stars.   I think the TE , Fidone, and OL, Prochazka,  4 star guys are great additions.   The 4 star OLB, Kpai, I'm not as familiar with - seems to be a bit light for the position.  Perhaps S&C can get him bigger in size. 

I expect to see Fidone on the field next year. 
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Hard to say as it's not a finished class. I'm not a believer in Prochazka, plays pretty high, and I have a hard time believing he's 280 lbs. Fidone has the athleticism to be a gadget player. I'm not really sure on Kpai's weight, but I like his film and he does look like he has put weight on. I think Lutovsky can be a great guard.

The other nice thing is that 6/7 top rated recruits are not only a 500 mile, but at max 5 hour drive away from Lincoln.  10/19 live in MO, IA, NE, or SD. They also brought in Oliver Martin and the graduate transfer Kolarevic. 

 
Mavric said:
I was thinking about this earlier and then Frost mentioned it in his presser.  I do think we have the talent but I also think there is something to it being young and still a work-in-progress.  I was going to go through the last few recruiting classes to illustrate this, especially on offense.  I'll try to get to that soon but I thought I'd post these quotes from Frost for now.
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Talent is relative. Does Nebraska have the talent to win the B1G West? Yes, but we're facing three of the best developmental programs in the country in Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern to a lesser extent. 

Does Nebraska have the talent to win the B1G? No, but it's possible in a perfect storm type of situation.

Does Nebraska have the talent to make the playoff? No, and it isn't close. It would take multiple consecutive recruiting classes ranked in the top 10, which just isn't possible for Nebraska.

 
QMany said:
That's not how it works, unless you assume no other team in the country has attrition. Some of those players still played and lost for Frost.
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Sorry, but it does correlate when depth is a massive issue on the football team, especially when you look at a 3 year recruiting process equals 53%

Nebraska fans, "We have no depth at receiver!!!!," 6 Mike Riley WR recruits transfer, 50% of which before frost gets to campus. "We  have no OLB's or no ILB's!!," 7 of which didn't finish their career at UNL. 

 
YetiJR said:
Sorry, but it does correlate when depth is a massive issue on the football team, especially when you look at a 3 year recruiting process equals 53%

Nebraska fans, "We have no depth at receiver!!!!," 6 Mike Riley WR recruits transfer, 50% of which before frost gets to campus. "We  have no OLB's or no ILB's!!," 7 of which didn't finish their career at UNL. 
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Wouldn’t one assume 3 cycles is enough time to fix depth issues? Year 1 is the year to complain about depth issues. Year 2 maybe. Year 3 and it’s self inflicted. 

 
Husker in WI said:
I know the angry fans hate this argument, but Frost is 11-20 and could very easily be something like 17-14. Riley was 19-19 and very easily could've been 10-28. I really do understand the wins are what counts. But for the long term prognosis it does matter how close/far we are, and Frost has been close to 7-8 wins the past couple years. I get the W/L argument, but I firmly stand by the view that Riley's teams were worse than their record and Frost's have been better.

I'm much more confident moving forward with a 2-5 team that advanced stats say is in the 30-40 range than 2016's 9-4 team that was ranked in the 60s. In everything except record we trended down consistently under Riley - the 4-8 team in 2017 was below 100th. I'm not happy about consistent losing seasons under Frost, but the underlying numbers look good and I'm willing to see if that comes to fruition. In any case, do you feel better about being able to solve penalty/turnover mistakes, or figuring out a way to not let a D2 LB run for 200 yards as a QB? We have come a long way, and it sucks that the record doesn't show it. I'm betting it will before long.
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I wouldn't classify myself as an angry fan, but I do think it's dangerous to evaluate the situation based upon "what could have been." Yes, we have lost many close games, but many of the few games we have won have also been close. Frost's 11-20 could also easily be 7-24. To me, the eye test is important. You can look at historical stats and recruiting rankings 'til you're blue in the face, but if the product you see on the field every week looks the same, it becomes pretty clear that "progress" is just a mirage created by those who want to see Coach succeed. That is human nature. Anyone but Scott Frost would be justifiably on a very hot seat right now. On the other hand, it would not be smart to gamble on catching lightning in a bottle with a new coach without giving it another year or two to see if things get turned around.

 
FrantzHardySwag said:
Wouldn’t one assume 3 cycles is enough time to fix depth issues? Year 1 is the year to complain about depth issues. Year 2 maybe. Year 3 and it’s self inflicted. 
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Typically, I would agree, but his first year wasn't a full cycle and half the players weren't recruited by him and his 3rd year dealt with the covid restrictions, which I'm sure hurt a lot of teams recruiting. Frost also cannot force out non-contributors that were Riley recruits, and I also think he was relying heavily on JUCO's, a lot of which didn't work out.

 
luvthecorn said:
I wouldn't classify myself as an angry fan, but I do think it's dangerous to evaluate the situation based upon "what could have been." Yes, we have lost many close games, but many of the few games we have won have also been close. Frost's 11-20 could also easily be 7-24. To me, the eye test is important. You can look at historical stats and recruiting rankings 'til you're blue in the face, but if the product you see on the field every week looks the same, it becomes pretty clear that "progress" is just a mirage created by those who want to see Coach succeed. That is human nature. Anyone but Scott Frost would be justifiably on a very hot seat right now. On the other hand, it would not be smart to gamble on catching lightning in a bottle with a new coach without giving it another year or two to see if things get turned around.
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True, and I'm trying to frame it more as a reason for hope moving forward. We have not been good enough, but there are signs that could change. Unlike Riley's good year, when all signs pointed to it being a bit of a fluke. And I do think it is a stretch to say the product on the field has looked the same. There are still frustrating self-inflicted wounds for sure, but I wouldn't say the progress is a mirage. I understand why others would feel differently there though.

 
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