Do we need top 5 classes to be successful?

good coaching and player development are higher priorities in my opinion.  once you maximize those then you can start to worry about if your talent is good enough.  wisconsin is a good example.  they get a ton out of their kids, have a good system in place as far as offensive and defensive coaching/strategy, but they are always a little limited talent-wise.  if i was them i would really be trying to figure out how to up the talent level in certain areas to take it to the next level.

 
Enhance said:
But, even taking other things into account like intangibles, coaching, development, etc., the data still overwhelming suggests that honest CFP contenders have to recruit in that top 15-10 range.
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It’s very limited data due to the low number of unique teams and their homogeneous makeup. 8 of the 10 CFP semifinal games have been decided by an average of 25 points. The pool of top teams, never mind unique teams, is incredibly small in the CFP era.

It’s more common sense reasoning than data arriving at these conclusions. Football is not a particularly technique driven sport, which is why players can take it up at a very high level at a relatively late age. Physical attributes go a long, long way in this game. So it makes simple sense that if you want a team in the top 3 or 4 it had better be composed of somewhat relatively talented players.

The question is, how crazy deep does your roster need to be to have a chance at being competitive, i.e. how much of Alabama’s roster is just taking up bench time in any given year. If 40 quality players were all that was needed, then a rolling 4 year cycle of rankings is way lower than Alabama’s who is currently bringing in more top players than entire conferences.

 
brophog said:
It’s more common sense reasoning than data arriving at these conclusions. Football is not a particularly technique driven sport, which is why players can take it up at a very high level at a relatively late age. Physical attributes go a long, long way in this game. So it makes simple sense that if you want a team in the top 3 or 4 it had better be composed of somewhat relatively talented players.
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Yep. Especially when it comes to a player that is naturally strong and fast for their body weight. And you see that in Alabama & Clemson's players, the players at the top tier of the recruiting profiles. When Alabama was up a couple scores against Oklahoma, they pounded the Sooners with the rushing attack and their strength was overwhelming. 

I don't feel incredibly hopeful of our program ever really playing Top 5 football at any point unless we recruit Top 10 -15 talent. Cracking the Top 10 and being roughly in the mix without that recruiting prowess, very possible under Frost. My big glimmer of hope based on what I see right now is Adrian Martinez and Frost/Verduzco's reputations as quarterbacks coaches. If Adrian has the season I think he might have next year, it is conceivable that we could become 'Mobile Quarterback U' and have our pick of the 5-10 best mobile quarterbacks in the 2020 class. That would go a long, long ways towards cracking the elite level.

 
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Undone said:
Yep. Especially when it comes to a player that is naturally strong and fast for their body weight. And you see that in Alabama & Clemson's players, the players at the top tier of the recruiting profiles. When Alabama was up a couple scores against Oklahoma, they pounded the Sooners with the rushing attack and their strength was overwhelming. 

I don't feel incredibly hopeful of our program ever really playing Top 5 football at any point. Cracking the Top 10 and being roughly in the mix, very possibly under Frost. My big glimmer of hope based on what I see right now is Adrian Martinez and Frost/Verduzco's reputations as quarterbacks coaches. If Adrian has the season I think he might have next year, it is conceivable that we could become 'Mobile Quarterback U' and have our pick of the 5-10 best mobile quarterbacks in the 2020 class. That would go a long, long ways towards cracking the elite level.
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Why not a top 5?  Scott will be in Lincoln for 25+ years (or positioned for such), he espouses Duvall as the best strength guy in the country (and Scott is not a hyperbolic person), and he is as innovative and in touch as any coach in the country from what I've seen.  Couple that with his special culture of unity and hard work...and given NU's tradition, I can easily see a prominent perennial top 5 program.  Scott's formula is trench strength/athleticism and skill position speed, a unique culture of integrity, character, hard work; I think it's a winning formula.

 
Undone said:
I don't feel incredibly hopeful of our program ever really playing Top 5 football at any point. Cracking the Top 10 and being roughly in the mix, very possibly under Frost. My big glimmer of hope based on what I see right now is Adrian Martinez and Frost/Verduzco's reputations as quarterbacks coaches. If Adrian has the season I think he might have next year, it is conceivable that we could become 'Mobile Quarterback U' and have our pick of the 5-10 best mobile quarterbacks in the 2020 class. That would go a long, long ways towards cracking the elite level.
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We already have our QB for the 2020 class.

 
DefenderAO said:
Why not a top 5?  Scott will be in Lincoln for 25+ years (or positioned for such), he espouses Duvall as the best strength guy in the country (and Scott is not a hyperbolic person), and he is as innovative and in touch as any coach in the country from what I've seen.  Couple that with his special culture of unity and hard work...and given NU's tradition, I can easily see a prominent perennial top 5 program.  Scott's formula is trench strength/athleticism and skill position speed, a unique culture of integrity, character, hard work; I think it's a winning formula.
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Because I'm objective and realistic.

I, too, see Frost's formula as a winning formula. The formula is as good as it gets. But we're not talking about that, and that's not what this thread is about. This thread asks, "Do we need Top 5 recruiting classes to be successful?" Just go ahead and replace 'to be successful' with 'winning national championships,' because that's what all of us life-long fans really expect when you get down to the nut cuttin'.

The data shows that you typically do need a run of Top 5 classes to win national titles in this era. It isn't the 90s anymore. As one poster mentioned earlier in this thread (I think it was maybe Huskers93-97?), Chip Kelly did come extremely close to bucking that trend with a couple classes that were closer to 12-15ish in his run up to those two title game appearances. And that of course is a very comforting data point for us, because Frost is leaning on basically the majority of Chip's offensive philosophies.

So I can see it possibly happening. But I'm not counting it as something that will definitely happen like so many others. Frost is the best coach for our program by a mile, let me make that clear also.
 

Ulty said:
We already have our QB for the 2020 class.
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You know what I mean though, Ulty. 2020 and going forward as a part of the foundation of our identity on offense.

 
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Undone said:
Because I'm objective and realistic.

I, too, see Frost's formula as a winning formula. The formula is as good as it gets. But we're not talking about that, and that's not what this thread is about. This thread asks, "Do we need Top 5 recruiting classes to be successful?" Just go ahead and replace 'to be successful' with 'winning national championships,' because that's what all of us life-long fans really expect when you get down to the nut cuttin'.

The data shows that you typically do need a run of Top 5 classes to win national titles in this era. It isn't the 90s anymore. As one poster mentioned earlier in this thread (I think it was maybe Huskers93-97?), Chip Kelly did come extremely close to bucking that trend with a couple classes that were closer to 12-15ish in his run up to those two title game appearances. And that of course is a very comforting data point for us, because Frost is leaning on basically the majority of Chip's offensive philosophies.

So I can see it possibly happening. But I'm not counting it as something that will definitely happen like so many others. Frost is the best coach for our program by a mile, let me make that clear also.
 

You know what I mean though, Ulty. 2020 and going forward as a part of the foundation of our identity on offense.
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Implicit in my comment is a direct answer to whether I believe we need a top 5 class.  We do not.  Other points to note:

- Scott does not have a mirror-Chip philosophy.  Chip never had strength in the trenches at Oregon.  He had speed.  Scott realizes needing both.  And top 5 classes are not requirements.  You can develop kids into those molds. 

- The staff recruited winners.  Winners know how to win.  Even HCSF was a winner.  How many HC's have won a NC as a player?  How many State semis+ kids are in this year's recruiting class?  I'll take a .89 state champ over a .94 "sits bowl game out" guy.

- I believe the walk-on program revamp will be huge again.  Talent helps, but five stars don't write you in as champ.  Entitlements and ego can trip kids up; walk-ons will fight and foster culture desperately needed for continued success.

 
DefenderAO said:
Implicit in my comment is a direct answer to whether I believe we need a top 5 class.  We do not.  Other points to note:

- Scott does not have a mirror-Chip philosophy.  Chip never had strength in the trenches at Oregon.  He had speed.  Scott realizes needing both.  And top 5 classes are not requirements.  You can develop kids into those molds. 

- The staff recruited winners.  Winners know how to win.  Even HCSF was a winner.  How many HC's have won a NC as a player?  How many State semis+ kids are in this year's recruiting class?  I'll take a .89 state champ over a .94 "sits bowl game out" guy.

- I believe the walk-on program revamp will be huge again.  Talent helps, but five stars don't write you in as champ.  Entitlements and ego can trip kids up; walk-ons will fight and foster culture desperately needed for continued success.
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I don't have any difficulties in understanding your arguments. I understand the points you're making perfectly clearly. I want you to be right just as badly as you want you to be right because I want to bring back the glory days.

Frost wants to marry strength & speed. He's talked about multiple times in the past six months. My position though is that this really mainly comes through recruiting the incredibly gifted athletes, and that assessment is one that I've made by closely following patterns in recruiting by Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and a couple of others. You can make up for some of these deficiencies by having an edge in strength & conditioning. Maybe we have that edge, and maybe we don't. Only time will tell there - but banking on it as a guarantee is not logical to me. If you disagree there, we'll agree to disagree.

 

 
DefenderAO said:
- The staff recruited winners.  Winners know how to win.  Even HCSF was a winner.  How many HC's have won a NC as a player?  How many State semis+ kids are in this year's recruiting class?  I'll take a .89 state champ over a .94 "sits bowl game out" guy.

- I believe the walk-on program revamp will be huge again.  Talent helps, but five stars don't write you in as champ.  Entitlements and ego can trip kids up; walk-ons will fight and foster culture desperately needed for continued success.
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How are high school state championships and sitting out bowl games even remotely  related? We're assuming the guys in a position to sit out their last college bowl game didn't win state championships as high schoolers? I like guys who have won too, but it's not like every great player was on a great high school team. Adam Carriker won like 3 games in his entire high school career, and I'm sure there are other examples.

I don't disagree with the second bold pieces individually, but it seems like you're tying them together. Not all 5 stars are entitled, and while they don't guarantee anything higher rated signees are correlated with championship-level success much more than walk-ons. Walk-ons are important, and both Clemson and Bama have had walk-ons contribute. But they didn't get to where they are without a lot of really talented kids, and that's been a much bigger part of their success. The main argument for the importance of walk-ons is the effort they give, and you can also get a lot of that with competition. Five star kids can't stay complacent if another five star comes in every year to take their place.

 
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