Do you believe in Luck?

[NUance]

Okay, I have an engineering degree (UNL) and have taken several statistics courses. Everything I've read and studied tells me there is no such thing as "luck". That is, you can't get on a hot streak (or cold streak) so that the dice, cards etc. favor you (or disfavor you). But, damn, from experience it sure seems like a guy can have hot and cold streaks.

 

[Creighton Duke]

Luck, like the QB?

 

[NUance]

^^ Ha ha! He had a lucky streak alright. In college anyway.

/ Edit: Detroit Lions would point out that his streak is alive and well in the NFL. (Luck's last minute TD drive to beat the Lions.)

 

[MLB 51]

Yes, I believe in luck. If you have ever seen my wife, you would have to say, I am one lucky fu&*#r.

 

[HuskerShark]

Yes and no. I voted no mostly because I think luck is a result of hard work or the right circumstance.

 

[zoogs]

Okay, I have an engineering degree (UNL) and have taken several statistics courses. Everything I've read and studied tells me there is no such thing as "luck". That is, you can't get on a hot streak (or cold streak) so that the dice, cards etc. favor you (or disfavor you). But, damn, from experience it sure seems like a guy can have hot and cold streaks.

Hm...randomness doesn't mean a different result on every coin flip -- that would be highly regular. Random outcomes will invariably have streaks - you could flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads in a row. Globally the trends will tend to 50/50.

The distinction here is that those are the results of randomness, and being on a streak doesn't influence the next outcome. Getting 5 dice rolls in your favor in a row doesn't make the next one any more or less likely to favor you; it's an IID random variable.

I would consider "luck" and "streaks" to be different things. Chance events that fall in one's favor, that's lucky. On the other hand, let's say a basketball player makes five shots in a row, does that mean he's on a streak? I'm not sure what the numbers say, but it's possible that the added confidence -- and the lack of confidence from the defending team -- could contribute him to be sharper on his next throw. Or maybe the pressure will get too big for him and he'll fold.

 

[Landlord]

Yes and no. I voted no mostly because I think luck is a result of hard work or the right circumstance.

Then it's not luck. It's consequence.

Luck, in its truest definition, is quite clearly non-existant, because it's supposedly supernatural. People do call different things, such as fortune, chance, and streaks by the term luck, but that's just improper semantics.

 

[NUance]

Yes and no. I voted no mostly because I think luck is a result of hard work or the right circumstance.

Then it's not luck. It's consequence.

Luck, in its truest definition, is quite clearly non-existant, because it's supposedly supernatural. People do call different things, such as fortune, chance, and streaks by the term luck, but that's just improper semantics.

Yeah, as an engineer who's taken a ton of math classes I would agree. But from personal experience it sure seems like luck exists. I don't know that there is anything supernatural about it. But when I'm on a hot streak I'd swear that I'm more likely to win the next hand (dice roll, etc.) than when I'm on a cold streak. I know it sounds ignorant. But it just seems that way.

 

[NUance]

Okay, I have an engineering degree (UNL) and have taken several statistics courses. Everything I've read and studied tells me there is no such thing as "luck". That is, you can't get on a hot streak (or cold streak) so that the dice, cards etc. favor you (or disfavor you). But, damn, from experience it sure seems like a guy can have hot and cold streaks.

Hm...randomness doesn't mean a different result on every coin flip -- that would be highly regular. Random outcomes will invariably have streaks - you could flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads in a row. Globally the trends will tend to 50/50.

The distinction here is that those are the results of randomness, and being on a streak doesn't influence the next outcome. Getting 5 dice rolls in your favor in a row doesn't make the next one any more or less likely to favor you; it's an IID random variable.

I would consider "luck" and "streaks" to be different things. Chance events that fall in one's favor, that's lucky. On the other hand, let's say a basketball player makes five shots in a row, does that mean he's on a streak? I'm not sure what the numbers say, but it's possible that the added confidence -- and the lack of confidence from the defending team -- could contribute him to be sharper on his next throw. Or maybe the pressure will get too big for him and he'll fold.

I think we're pretty much talking about the same thing. I don't necessarily think that some people are lucky over long periods--like some guy could call a coin flip 60% of the time for 10,000 flips. I think nearly everyone would be fairly close to 50%. But during the 10,000 coin flips there would be winning and losing streaks of several correct/incorrect calls in a row. I'm just saying that it seems like a person can get on a hot streak of several wins in a row in which they are more likely to win the next flip (or hand of cards, dice roll, etc.) than when they're on a cold streak.

 

[zoogs]

Well, while those streaks happen naturally as a product of randomness, I think I'd argue that it doesn't make it any more likely to win the next flip. So your statistics background isn't wrong. If we're talking about a completely independent event such as a dice roll, coin flip, etc., the history of rolls has no influence on any given roll, and yet streaks still occur.

 

[tschu]

No such thing as luck, only variance that by chance works in your favor.

Andrew Luck is pretty good though, hell of a game he had yesterday

 

[strigori]

I think luck exists, I have seen too many things of chance go in one direction before that were highly improbable. Like watching a guy roll 36 dice and only a single 1 coming up. Because he needed everything except a 1. And thats just one example.

 

[NUance]

Yeah, I agree. If you've ever spent much time playing a game of chance you know what I mean about having that feeling of getting on a hot streak. Or a cold streak. And sure enough, it seems like that next roll of the dice (or hand of cards) is more likely to be a winner (or a loser if on a cold streak) when this happens. Of course, as I said above this goes against everything I've ever read or studied.

 

[zoogs]

That's just an illusion though. Unless you pull in the sort of data to back up the idea that "while in a streak, the next roll of dice is more likely to continue the streak."

 

[HuskerShark]

Yes and no. I voted no mostly because I think luck is a result of hard work or the right circumstance.

Then it's not luck. It's consequence.

Luck, in its truest definition, is quite clearly non-existant, because it's supposedly supernatural. People do call different things, such as fortune, chance, and streaks by the term luck, but that's just improper semantics.

I agree with you. What I meant by the above post is this. You have one situation where a guy has a great heart, works hard at everything he does, gets straight A's, is very talented, and is very nice but is stuck in his boring every-day job despite his efforts to change his situation. Then another situation where the guy is a total doosh, gets everything handed to him, gets a job as a VP of a huge corporation, and sits around all day counting his money. I'd say the second guy has a little bit of luck.

Whether that's the definition of what the question is asking about I don't know. But that's my take on it.