Do you believe in Luck?

[tschu]

Put it this way; Luck existing would disprove everything that we currently know about the physical universe, as well as about probability and statistics.

 

[strigori]

And yet events occur that can actually be 'statistically impossible'

 

[KJ.]

It all just depends on how you define it.

Awesome thread, though. There's already some great posts in here.

 

[Landlord]

And yet events occur that can actually be 'statistically impossible'

Such as?

 

[MLB 51]

What about the luck of the Irish?

 

[tschu]

And yet events occur that can actually be 'statistically impossible'

False.

 

[sd'sker]

i am really good at 'risk'. luck has nothing to do with it.

 

[tschu]

A snippet from advancednflstats.com about so-called hot and cold streaks. Go ahead and replace the word "momentum" with "luck" and you get the point.

People naturally expect to see events alternate more often that they really do. Streaky outcomes are a natural part of the world, and momentum is not needed to explain it. Flip a coin a few times and you’ll see that there are streaks of the same result, and no one would ever say the coin had momentum.
Here’s a quarter. Go ahead and start flipping now. I’ll wait. Half out of every set of two flips will be the same two results in a row. One in four sets of three flips will be a streak of the same result…And one out of eight times you’ll see four straight of the same result.

Luck would imply that the probability of something occurring is different for one person than it is for another person. That is to say that, if, for example Person A and Person B were playing blackjack.

Let's say that Person A isn't lucky and has the standard 48% chance of winning/pushing a blackjack hand.

For Person B to be lucky, he would have to be playing using the same regular deck as Person A and under the same set of rules and with the same skill as Person A, yet have a higher probability of winning the hand. Which isn't possible. Person B might go on a "lucky streak" where he wins more often than he loses, but that is just a chance outcome of a random event that occurs with the same probability, not luck.

 

[HuskerShark]

If I am on my way home from school today and decide to stop by the gas station and buy a lottery ticket and win, I'd definitely consider that luck.

 

[tschu]

Again, if you want to re-word the question to "Do you believe in statistical variance" or "Do you believe in statistically improbable events that by chance occur and turn out to work in your favor" then of course the answer is yes

 

[KJ.]

A couple has two children. One of the kids is a girl. What's the probability the other is a boy?

 

[Landlord]

A couple has two children. One of the kids is a girl. What's the probability the other is a boy?

50%

 

[zoogs]

Of course that depends if the stipulation is "one and only one child is a girl", in which case the answer is 1.

Again, if you want to re-word the question to "Do you believe in statistical variance" or "Do you believe in statistically improbable events that by chance occur and turn out to work in your favor" then of course the answer is yes

Nailed it! There are two definitions going around in this thread. I've always considered the latter one (yes answer) to mean 'luck.' It would be highly improbable if nothing improbable ever happened.

 

[KJ.]

Of course that depends if the stipulation is "one and only one child is a girl", in which case the answer is 1.

Correct. But that's not what it means.

A couple has two children. One of the kids is a girl. What's the probability the other is a boy?

50%

Actually, no.

 

[NUance]

Of course that depends if the stipulation is "one and only one child is a girl", in which case the answer is 1.

Correct. But that's not what it means.

A couple has two children. One of the kids is a girl. What's the probability the other is a boy?

50%

Actually, no.

One is a girl. This other is Schrödinger's cat.