Seems pretty straightforward to me.
Doc figures with our schedule that it will take 9 conference wins to make the tournament.
Mid January means we'd be 6-7 games into conference play and by that time we'll have a good idea of how competitive we will be in the conference slate. (already having played Wisconsin and Michigan State at home and Ohio State on the Road)
What Doc is saying is that IF Andre is ready to go at by that time AND Doc thinks the team is in a position W/L wise that 9 conference wins are attainable he will think about playing him this year. If Andre isn't ready by then or Doc doesn't think the team is in position to get those 9 wins he will redshirt.
IMO I take it to mean that if we don't have 2 or 3 conference wins by the time we host Indiana it doesn't matter what Andre's health is but if we do than if he's healthy he may play this year out.
That's an interesting take. If true,
it would seem to be a marked departure from how Doc handled JBD when he arrived at semester a few years ago. IIRC, we had the smallest team in Div I, but that scurrying group of muppets played their guts out and we couldn't get over the hump because we had NO size. In that case, Doc took JBD along on road trips but ultimately did not play him, preferring to save the year for the future. Seems like the diametric opposite of what you are interpreting for the mighty Almeida.
Not saying you are incorrect, but it would appear to be a departure in philosophy for Doc. Although, it may have to do with Doc feeling more pressure to win NOW.