Dylan Raiola

People want to believe that. Despite statistical evidence - and coaches comments - to the contrary.
I take coaches commentary with a grain of salt. They’re salesmen, often giving the public something somewhat believable when the real truth is usually not what they’re representing. Case in point, all the offseason talk of our RB room and how deep the rotation is at the tackle spot. Season arrives and we have no one playable behind EJ and still figuring out who’s in our tackle spots

Shows up on gameday. There’s a reason we often find ourselves on 1st and goal yet call 3 passing plays or need to dial up trickery- it’s because our staff has zero confidence that we can just line up and run the ball.

Shows up in the stats. If you remove the 2 cupcakes on our schedule we’re averaging 73 yards a game rushing against P4 teams.

I’d love to see the stats that indicate we are good at either pass protect or running the ball
 
I’d love to see the stats that indicate we are good at either pass protect or running the ball


Best average time to pressure allowed, FBS offensive lines:

1) Colorado: 4.57 seconds
2) Arizona State: 4.35
3) Ball State: 4.34
4) Michigan State: 4.32
5) USC: 4.29
5) SMU: 4.29
5) UL-Monroe: 4.29
8) Kansas: 4.15
9) Arkansas: 4.14
10) Kentucky: 4.13
11) Arizona: 4.12
11) Nebraska: 4.12
13) Iowa: 4.10
14) Alabama: 4.09
15) Texas: 4.05
15) Wake Forest: 4.05

*time to pressure data via TruMedia/PFF
 
would love to see what this looks like in conference play

Pretty similar, as was discussed here:

Again, it's not like most other teams haven't play an overmatched opponent or two.

I'm not sure if this is exactly the data they're using. But according to PFF, Raiola's Time to Throw when Under Pressure has been:
  • Cincinnati - 3.81 (9 dropbacks, 5 attempts)
  • Akron - 4.83 (4 dropbacks, 3 attempts)
  • Houston Christian - 4.65 (4 dropbacks, 3 attempts)
  • Michigan - 3.70 (22 dropbacks, 15 attempts)
  • Michigan State - 4.05 (10 dropbacks, 4 attempts)
I get 3.96 when I put all that together, which is what PFF shows for the season (using total dropbacks). So I'm not sure what is adjusted to get 4.12. But removing Akron and HC, I get 3.80. So not much of a change, mainly because of the few amount of attempts in those games.
 
I know I've heard many people talk (including coaches) about Dylan needing to get the ball out quicker. What I don't know is, is that pretty much all on him in that he's not seeing the quick pass targets fast enough? Or, are the WRs not doing a good enough job getting open quickly enough?
 
I know I've heard many people talk (including coaches) about Dylan needing to get the ball out quicker. What I don't know is, is that pretty much all on him in that he's not seeing the quick pass targets fast enough? Or, are the WRs not doing a good enough job getting open quickly enough?

I don't think there's one complete answer - sometimes the receivers aren't open, sometimes the line lets a rusher loose, etc. But when it's Raiola, the vibe I get is he doesn't always pull the trigger when a read is open. He has a tendency to try and keep going through the progression to hunt for a bigger/more open play instead of taking the one that's open enough to throw. Then if the later reads aren't open, you usually can't go back to the earlier ones.
 
I know I've heard many people talk (including coaches) about Dylan needing to get the ball out quicker. What I don't know is, is that pretty much all on him in that he's not seeing the quick pass targets fast enough? Or, are the WRs not doing a good enough job getting open quickly enough?

I'm sure it's a little bit of everything. As I've said a couple of times, he takes longer to throw against pressure than when not pressured. Which seems backwards. So there has to be something else that's making him not get rid of the ball faster. Seems likely that it's some combination of fewer receivers, longer routes, tighter coverage, different coverage than expected, an who knows what else.

But I guess if you're getting four seconds to throw before pressure, I'm not sure you can ask a lot more of the OL than that.

And I do think he could throw a few more away. But generally speaking, continuing to look for options in the face of pressure is a good thing. I'd rather have a QB on that end of the spectrum than the other end where they panic at the first sniff of pressure.
 
I don't think there's one complete answer - sometimes the receivers aren't open, sometimes the line lets a rusher loose, etc. But when it's Raiola, the vibe I get is he doesn't always pull the trigger when a read is open. He has a tendency to try and keep going through the progression to hunt for a bigger/more open play instead of taking the one that's open enough to throw. Then if the later reads aren't open, you usually can't go back to the earlier ones.
I'm sure it's a little bit of everything. As I've said a couple of times, he takes longer to throw against pressure than when not pressured. Which seems backwards. So there has to be something else that's making him not get rid of the ball faster. Seems likely that it's some combination of fewer receivers, longer routes, tighter coverage, different coverage than expected, an who knows what else.

But I guess if you're getting four seconds to throw before pressure, I'm not sure you can ask a lot more of the OL than that.

And I do think he could throw a few more away. But generally speaking, continuing to look for options in the face of pressure is a good thing. I'd rather have a QB on that end of the spectrum than the other end where they panic at the first sniff of pressure.
It's crazy. For years and years we complained about QBs locking in on their target and not going through progressions. Now, we have a good passing QB and you're saying he's, possibly, going through his progressions too much.
 
It's crazy. For years and years we complained about QBs locking in on their target and not going through progressions. Now, we have a good passing QB and you're saying he's, possibly, going through his progressions too much.
Alanis Morissette Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
It's crazy. For years and years we complained about QBs locking in on their target and not going through progressions. Now, we have a good passing QB and you're saying he's, possibly, going through his progressions too much.
I’d have to take a closer look at this next point but it makes sense giving what everyone is saying about taking too long to pull the trigger………

I’ve read that Dylan didn’t do as well against man coverage as he does against zone. Which seems pretty counterintuitive. Maybe he just isn’t recognizing what open actually is during the live fire of a game when it’s man coverage. A half a step to a step is open against man coverage and zone coverage has bigger open windows.

I guess I’d like to watch some all 22 and see if this is correct about him or not.
 
I’d have to take a closer look at this next point but it makes sense giving what everyone is saying about taking too long to pull the trigger………

I’ve read that Dylan didn’t do as well against man coverage as he does against zone. Which seems pretty counterintuitive. Maybe he just isn’t recognizing what open actually is during the live fire of a game when it’s man coverage. A half a step to a step is open against man coverage and zone coverage has bigger open windows.

I guess I’d like to watch some all 22 and see if this is correct about him or not.

Yeah, it would be really nice if that was publicly available. I do rewatch the 40 minute versions of the games and try to figure out what's going on, but it's impossible without all 22. According to Holgorsen several of the sacks were big plays waiting to happen, but I'd be curious to see them. The only blatant "he probably should have thrown that" I can find was this 3rd down - he's looking right at the slant and the DB is blitzing. Maybe he wasn't confident he could fit it around/over him, or thought another defender was driving on it? Or maybe looking left is just part of the play design to freeze the LBs? Ended up checking it down to EJ for no gain, but he was looking right at the blitzer for the first second.
1759944733298.png
1759944777341.png


Like maybe you throw this one (and he thought about it), but it's probably not a first down so scrambling is defensible:
1759944866633.png

Probably ran himself into trouble when he didn't need to here, but Key didn't pick Lindenmeyer's guy like I assume he's supposed to so the initial concept wasn't there. But I do wonder if this is the one he was talking about running into a sack with receivers wide open, can't tell what the receiver at the top of the screen (Hunter or Mills) was doing. Also hard to blame him for panicking a bit, this was shortly after the 3 sack drive.
1759945073619.png


We also came really close to some huge screens. This play might have been a TD, and the underarm looked really dumb. But I'm not sure what else he's supposed to do, the defender did a good job closing quickly and making this difficult.
1759945284271.png

This was also a huge play waiting to happen - if Barney splits the defenders and Evans picks off the safety, it's at least 15 yards and potentially a lot more.
1759945493211.png

Then you have the two sacks where Holgorsen said receivers were open for TDs, and a couple other near misses. I came away from the rewatch feeling less bad than it seemed live, but I'd really love to actually see the entire play and not just the protection and short routes.
 

Attachments

  • 1759945058983.png
    1759945058983.png
    807 KB · Views: 1
Yeah, it would be really nice if that was publicly available. I do rewatch the 40 minute versions of the games and try to figure out what's going on, but it's impossible without all 22. According to Holgorsen several of the sacks were big plays waiting to happen, but I'd be curious to see them. The only blatant "he probably should have thrown that" I can find was this 3rd down - he's looking right at the slant and the DB is blitzing. Maybe he wasn't confident he could fit it around/over him, or thought another defender was driving on it? Or maybe looking left is just part of the play design to freeze the LBs? Ended up checking it down to EJ for no gain, but he was looking right at the blitzer for the first second.
View attachment 22577
View attachment 22578


Like maybe you throw this one (and he thought about it), but it's probably not a first down so scrambling is defensible:
View attachment 22579

Probably ran himself into trouble when he didn't need to here, but Key didn't pick Lindenmeyer's guy like I assume he's supposed to so the initial concept wasn't there. But I do wonder if this is the one he was talking about running into a sack with receivers wide open, can't tell what the receiver at the top of the screen (Hunter or Mills) was doing. Also hard to blame him for panicking a bit, this was shortly after the 3 sack drive.
View attachment 22581


We also came really close to some huge screens. This play might have been a TD, and the underarm looked really dumb. But I'm not sure what else he's supposed to do, the defender did a good job closing quickly and making this difficult.
View attachment 22582

This was also a huge play waiting to happen - if Barney splits the defenders and Evans picks off the safety, it's at least 15 yards and potentially a lot more.
View attachment 22584

Then you have the two sacks where Holgorsen said receivers were open for TDs, and a couple other near misses. I came away from the rewatch feeling less bad than it seemed live, but I'd really love to actually see the entire play and not just the protection and short routes.
When was the 40 minute condensed version released? I couldn’t find it a few days ago.
 
Back
Top