End of the Regular Season: Let's Take a Look at the Numbers

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Okay, so it was brought to my attention (and I was thinking about it as well) that I should take a more detailed look at yards to go and down. I broke yards to go into 3 categories: 0-3 yards, 4-7 yards, and 8+ yards. Downs were broken into 3 categories as well, 1st down, 2nd down, and 3rd & 4th down. I've also kept the information about our standing in the game: tied, up/down 1 score (1-8), up/down 2 scores (9-16), and up/down 3+ scores (17+).

I'll have to do the collecting for the first six games, but I have the data collected for the Minnesota game, so I'll share it with you right here.

Minnesota

Score Situation

When the game was tied

Nebraska: 4 rushes, 14 yards, 3.5 yards per rush, 1 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalties; 2/2 passing, 55 yards, 27.5 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: Never ran a play while the game was tied

When Nebraska was up 1 score

Nebraska: 8 rushes, 9 yards, 1.125 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalties; 5/9 passing, 34 yards, 6.8 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: 9 rushes, 55 yards, 6.11 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 15 penalty yards; 2/5 passing, 53 yards, 26.5 yards per completion, 1 TD.

When Minnesota was up 1 score

Nebraska: 11 rushes, 89 yards, 7.82 yards per rush, 0 TD, 1 turnover, 21 penalty yards; 7/13 passing, 44 yards, 6.29 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: 25 rushes, 106 yards, 4.24 yards per rush, 2 TD, 0 turnover, 20 penalty yards; 4/8 passing, 83 yards, 20.75 yards per completion, 0 TD.

When Nebraska was up 2 scores

Nebraska: Never ran a play while up 2 scores

Minnesota: 12 rushes, 68 yards, 5.67 yards per rush, 1 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 1/1 passing, 7 yards, 7 yards per completion, 0 TD.

When Minnesota was up 2 scores

Nebraska: 7 rushes, 79 yards, 11.28 yards per rush, 0 TD, 1 turnover, 0 penalty yards; 3/7 passing, 22 yards, 7.33 yards per completion, 1 TD.

Minnesota: 8 rushes, 42 yards, 5.25 yards per rush, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 0/2 passing, 0 yards, 0 TD

Distance

When there was 0-3 yards to the first down

Nebraska: 4 rushes, 12 yards, 3 yards per rush, 1 TD, 0 turnovers, 1 penalty yards; 2/2 passing, 4 yards, 2 yards per completion, 1 TD.

Minnesota: 18 rushes, 65 yards, 3.61 yards per rush, 3 TDs, 0 turnovers, 30 penalty yards; 1/2 passing, 16 yards, 16 yards per completion, 0 TD.

When there was 4-7 yards to the first down

Nebraska: 4 rushes, 1 yard, 0.25 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 15 penalty yards; 1/4 passing, 6 yards, 6 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: 8 rushes, 35 yards, 4.38 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 0/1 passing, 0 TD.

When there was 8+ yards to the first down

Nebraska: 22 rushes, 175 yards, 7.95 yards per rush, 0 TD, 2 turnovers, 5 penalty yards; 13/24 passing, 129 yards, 9.92 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: 28 rushes, 171 yards, 6.11 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers 5 penalty yards; 7/14 passing, 143 yards, 20.43 yards per completion, 1 TD.

Down

First Down

Nebraska: 18 rushes, 152 yards, 8.44 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 6/11 passing, 69 yards, 11.5 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: 27 rushes, 162 yards, 6 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 5/7 passing, 90 yards, 18 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Second Down

Nebraska: 5 rushes, 8 yards, 1.6 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 7/13 passing, 27 yards, 3.86 yards per completion, 1 TD.

Minnesota: 20 rushes, 85 yards, 4.25 yards per rush, 1 TD, 0 turnovers, 0 penalty yards; 1/3 passing, 20 yards, 20 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Third & Fourth Down

Nebraska: 6 rushes, 26 yards, 4.33 yards per rush, 0 TD, 0 turnovers; 21 penalty yards; 3/6 passing, 43 yards, 14.33 yards per completion, 0 TD.

Minnesota: 7 rushes, 24 yards, 3.43 yards per rush, 2 TDs, 0 turnovers; 35 penalty yards; 2/7 passing, 49 yards, 24.5 yards per completion, 1 TD.

 

[RedDenver]

Great work!

Looks like we were pretty even running and passing. A little more running on 1st down and a little more passing on 2nd down.

 

[Bowfin]

What is our identity now?

Beck says we take what the defense gives us. If they refuse to give us anything, we go away empty handed and lose, I guess...

Seriously, I think that is a philosophy of weakness. It says we only succeed if we can find out where they are weak, rather than say, "Here's where we excel, try and stop us."

 

[RedDenver]

What is our identity now?

Beck says we take what the defense gives us. If they refuse to give us anything, we go away empty handed and lose, I guess...

Seriously, I think that is a philosophy of weakness. It says we only succeed if we can find out where they are weak, rather than say, "Here's where we excel, try and stop us."

And if the other team stops what you "excel" at, then you're also empty-handed and lose. Seems a lot easier for a defense to prepare for one thing than several. Then again, that one thing they prepare for would be more difficult to stop. There's no easy answer here - and lots of teams and both failed and succeeded with "multiple" and "singular" (for lack of a better word) offenses.

 

[Enhance]

To a degree, you have to take what the defense gives you. There's no such thing as an offense that attacks play-by-play, week-by-week without trying to exploit a defense's weaknesses. Even back when we had an offense that ran 60+ times a game, we certainly looked at how a defense was trying to stop us and then would call plays to counter what they were doing.

I think where Nebraska struggles is identifying what plays and choices they feel comfortable executing in any given situation. IMHO, most of this has been due to a relatively average offensive line. Say what you will about individual players - Spencer Long has been very good, obviously. But as a unit, they've been above average at best during Pelini's tenure, and when your offensive line isn't very good, your offense isn't going to be very good week-to-week.

 

[Count 'Bility]

You know what makes me laugh about the whole "pass to conserve clock" assessment? The fact that when you complete a pass, the clock continues to run just the same. LOL. You might as just use the full book.

 

[CBolin69]

We need to go back to the Offense that we ran before Bo took over, I am talking about the power rush game, old power I and the Maryland I and run at people and tell them stop us if you can. Worked for years even after all the experts said it was an old outdated system. oh a few times it didn't work like if we got behind by to many points, but overall it worked, This stuff we run now the "Read option" is not tha great for us compared to the past thats my take

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

You know what makes me laugh about the whole "pass to conserve clock" assessment? The fact that when you complete a pass, the clock continues to run just the same. LOL. You might as just use the full book.

Well...the passing game generally picks up more yardage per play than the rushing game. So you run fewer plays and so conserve clock.

 

[SandBarHusker]

I think if you look at Beck's pass/run ratio, you don't really see anything that pops out as poor play-calling. Where Beck struggles, and this is arguably the most challenging part of being an OC, is knowing what plays to call in what situations. This is where I think Beck needs the most improvement. There was one game I remember from earlier in this year where, after what I believe was a successful touchdown drive featuring quite a bit of downhill running, we came out the next drive calling a reverse and a couple of pass plays. We then punted, IIRC. All I know for sure is that whatever we had been doing that was successful, we got away from it.

Now, you obviously have to keep the defense on it's toes. You also have to be creative as an OC and mix things up. But, I sometimes feel we do too much, and it shows. There are plenty of examples I could spout off, but one of my biggest gripes is repetition and getting good at certain things. Do we have enough repetitions in practice to get everybody on the same page with all the different wrinkles to our offense? Sometimes I wonder if we do. IMHO there has to be certain parts of every offense that the offense can rely on in tough situations. What are we really good at and what do we feel confident will work when our backs are against the wall? I feel like Nebraska doesn't know what that is sometimes.

This is an excellent post. I really think the youth and inexperiance of Beck is lending to situations where they aren't calling the right plays for the situation. Not all the time. Some fo the time it was a wrong check off and some of the time it was poor execution. I think with this staff we have to realize that in TIME they will continue to grow and could be VERY good.

The other point is in keeping the defenses's on their toe's. Too many fans remember the glory years of just lining up and running down their throats. Well even then we had experiance play callers and coaches that could run the same play 4 different ways with the different blocking schemes. In many ways our play book was much more difficult under TO than it was under Bo with all the pass plays in it. But everyone's strength progrrams have caught up and, just like the NFL, you can't run it consistantly. The coaching staff has to attack weakness's and catch them off guard. I'd be willing to guess our 1st down passing proficiency was much better than 3rd down. You pass when they expect a run and run when they expect a pass. Really kind of simple if you execute. As far as Beck's tendencies and is he consistant. I hope not. If we are able to put together statistics showing it then the other team can.

 

[SandBarHusker]

[i'm also curious as to what the longest streak of run plays called was this season (in a situation where the game wasn't yet decided]

Yeah, that's the Full Beck I think people think "he goes to". But 'Id venture that he was pretty consistent this year. Didn't seem to have a "Wisconsin before half" this year.

Which is also why I'm baffled as to why there weren't more run plays called. I know the line got beat up as the year went on, but we had 3 backs that could have been rotated to try to keep them as "fresh" as possible. And concievably, wouldn't running the ball eat a little more clock, giving the D a chance to catch a breath.

No.....rest time is real time. Clock running or not running is irrelevant.

 

[Enhance]

The other point is in keeping the defenses's on their toe's. Too many fans remember the glory years of just lining up and running down their throats.

Yep, and even when we did (as you accurately pointed out) we had experienced playcallers. We came in with the mentality that we were going to line up and make the other team stop us, but I feel like that idea gets far more attention than it deserves. We still analyzed defenses, we still constantly made adjustments and we still strived to attack the weaknesses of a defense. I think we were so good at one point it gave off the impression that we just kind of did whatever we wanted and nobody could stop us. I would argue that while we were certainly good at what we did, there was far more to it than simply lining up and running the play.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

I think if you look at Beck's pass/run ratio, you don't really see anything that pops out as poor play-calling. Where Beck struggles, and this is arguably the most challenging part of being an OC, is knowing what plays to call in what situations. This is where I think Beck needs the most improvement. There was one game I remember from earlier in this year where, after what I believe was a successful touchdown drive featuring quite a bit of downhill running, we came out the next drive calling a reverse and a couple of pass plays. We then punted, IIRC. All I know for sure is that whatever we had been doing that was successful, we got away from it.

When I eventually get this done (been a long time coming), what I'm doing is taking a look at the run/pass ration as well as the efficiency of our offense in those different situations: 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th down as well as 1-3 yards, 4-7 yards, and 8+ yards.

There are a few things to be expected:

1. We should have a higher percentage of run plays from 1-3 yards. Considering our offense has very good running backs, we should be able to pick up a first down from 3 yards out more often than not.

2. We should have a higher percentage of pass plays from 8+ yards. It might not be as large of a percentage as run plays from 1-3 yards out, because teams usually have a 1st and 10, and in those cases the entire playbook should be available.

3. Which means that we should have more running plays than pass plays on 1st down.

4. The interesting part of this whole thing is going to be the ratios and effectiveness of plays ran from 4-7 yards.

 

[SandBarHusker]

The other point is in keeping the defenses's on their toe's. Too many fans remember the glory years of just lining up and running down their throats.

Yep, and even when we did (as you accurately pointed out) we had experienced playcallers. We came in with the mentality that we were going to line up and make the other team stop us, but I feel like that idea gets far more attention than it deserves. We still analyzed defenses, we still constantly made adjustments and we still strived to attack the weaknesses of a defense. I think we were so good at one point it gave off the impression that we just kind of did whatever we wanted and nobody could stop us. I would argue that while we were certainly good at what we did, there was far more to it than simply lining up and running the play.

This is so accurate. Nebraska didn't just line up and run the ball however we wanted. We ran the ball with the blocking scheme that was predicted for that specific defense and formation. To this day even Beck's offenses are doing that. Again.....how affective? Well as I said they are still young and learning and they need to execute.

 

[SandBarHusker]

I think if you look at Beck's pass/run ratio, you don't really see anything that pops out as poor play-calling. Where Beck struggles, and this is arguably the most challenging part of being an OC, is knowing what plays to call in what situations. This is where I think Beck needs the most improvement. There was one game I remember from earlier in this year where, after what I believe was a successful touchdown drive featuring quite a bit of downhill running, we came out the next drive calling a reverse and a couple of pass plays. We then punted, IIRC. All I know for sure is that whatever we had been doing that was successful, we got away from it.

When I eventually get this done (been a long time coming), what I'm doing is taking a look at the run/pass ration as well as the efficiency of our offense in those different situations: 1st, 2nd, 3rd/4th down as well as 1-3 yards, 4-7 yards, and 8+ yards.

There are a few things to be expected:

1. We should have a higher percentage of run plays from 1-3 yards. Considering our offense has very good running backs, we should be able to pick up a first down from 3 yards out more often than not.

2. We should have a higher percentage of pass plays from 8+ yards. It might not be as large of a percentage as run plays from 1-3 yards out, because teams usually have a 1st and 10, and in those cases the entire playbook should be available.

3. Which means that we should have more running plays than pass plays on 1st down.

4. The interesting part of this whole thing is going to be the ratios and effectiveness of plays ran from 4-7 yards.

I'm interested in seeing what the percentage rate for 1st down completions is compared to 3rd down. And if the average pass completion is longer on a pass compared to a run than it stands to reason that passing on 1st down should happen more. However.....again.....if that becomes too much of a tendancy than the defenses will adjust.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

"Taking what a defense gives you" is the strategy of every successful coach in every sport since the dawn of time.

That includes taking four yards every rushing play if that's what a defense gives you, but it doesn't happen as much as some Nebraska fans like to think.