ESPN releases initial FPI ratings for 2016 season

they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?

 
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
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These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.

 
saunders45 said:
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.
Click to expand...

Do you have a link to those? Not familiar with them. Why do you prefer them?

 
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
Turned a corner? I think you mean pulled out of a ditch that was last season.

NU was probably around the same last preseason (and underperformed based on the metrics) and has been in that range probably most of the past 15 years. Many fans think we should fire coaches who have us in the 9/10 win, ~50% division titles, and 15-30 ranking range.

To me, that's the interesting debate. If RIley matches but doesn't outperform the last staff in terms of on the field performance, should we fire them in 7 years? I don't think so. But that's probably for another thread.

Anyway, it could be moot as Riley will likely be retiring in about 7 years regardless.

 
cm husker said:
saunders45 said:
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.
Click to expand...

Do you have a link to those? Not familiar with them. Why do you prefer them?
Click to expand...
I prefer them because they're more accurate, and less "hand wavey" than ESPN's FPI.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

Also, Bill Connelly (who created them) is simply a huge CFB dork, and I admire his work. I'm halfway through his first book, and helped kickstart his second.

They do all kinds of analytical studies on CFB at his main SBNation site: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/.

Also, his podcast is pretty good, they've been discussing a "moneyball" approach to CFB lately in regards to non Power 5 teams which has been quite interesting.

 
saunders45 said:
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.
Click to expand...
i don't understand if it is based solely on results from last year. but hey....we are top 25 in 1 preseason poll anyway. maybe we can be in the top 25 at the end of the year this year.
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commando said:
saunders45 said:
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.
Click to expand...
i don't understand if it is based solely on results from last year. but hey....we are top 25 in 1 preseason poll anyway. maybe we can be in the top 25 at the end of the year this year.
default_smile.png
Click to expand...
It's not really based on results. It takes into account recruiting rankings, plus offensive and devensive efficiency numbers, turnover luck, returning starters, etc...

Basically, ESPN is starting to get into the game that Phil Steel started 2 decades ago, and others (SBNation) have been doing for quite a while.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Expanding on my point above, one thing the advanced stat guys in CFB all seem to agree on, is that Wins and Losses are not the best predictor.

Case in point, Nebraska. We lost 7 games, 5 that came down to a single play.

Here's a better breakdown of S&P+ (and why I like it).

The S&P statistic, developed by Bill Connelly, is made by compiling two different numbers: A team's success rate and Equivalent Points Per Play (PPP). Let's break each of these down individually. How much is eight yards worth to an offense? Obviously, the answer changes depending on the situation. If it's first-and-10, eight yards is valuable. If it's third-and-26, eight yards doesn't do so much. This is the reason that looking at a team's total yardage oftentimes is misleading, as it doesn't tell us if teams picked up valuable yards or simply junk yards. This is where Connelly's success rate comes in. He considers each play a "success" for the offense if it meets the following criteria: 50 percent of needed yards on first down, 70 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third or fourth down.

So on first-and-10, a "success" is if the offense gains five yards or more. On second-and-20, a "success" would be 14 yards or more. On third-and-26, only 26 yards or more would be considered a "success." The average success rate for Division-I college teams through week two of the 2009 college football season was 41.1 percent. Why is success rate important? In short, it measures a team's efficiency.

http://www2.kusports.com/definition/s_and_p/
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saunders45 said:
cm husker said:
saunders45 said:
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.
Click to expand...

Do you have a link to those? Not familiar with them. Why do you prefer them?
Click to expand...
I prefer them because they're more accurate, and less "hand wavey" than ESPN's FPI.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

Also, Bill Connelly (who created them) is simply a huge CFB dork, and I admire his work. I'm halfway through his first book, and helped kickstart his second.

They do all kinds of analytical studies on CFB at his main SBNation site: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/.

Also, his podcast is pretty good, they've been discussing a "moneyball" approach to CFB lately in regards to non Power 5 teams which has been quite interesting.
Click to expand...
Thanks much. I'll have to check out the podcast.

 
cm husker said:
saunders45 said:
cm husker said:
saunders45 said:
commando said:
they have us at 25th after the poor season last year? maybe they think Nebraska has turned a corner and is on an upswing?
Click to expand...
These are purely analytical, so not really based on anyone's opinions (other than the weight given to metrics). They're not nearly as good as SBNation's S&P+ rankings IMO, but hey, it's the offseason.
Click to expand...

Do you have a link to those? Not familiar with them. Why do you prefer them?
Click to expand...
I prefer them because they're more accurate, and less "hand wavey" than ESPN's FPI.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

Also, Bill Connelly (who created them) is simply a huge CFB dork, and I admire his work. I'm halfway through his first book, and helped kickstart his second.

They do all kinds of analytical studies on CFB at his main SBNation site: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/.

Also, his podcast is pretty good, they've been discussing a "moneyball" approach to CFB lately in regards to non Power 5 teams which has been quite interesting.
Click to expand...
Thanks much. I'll have to check out the podcast.
Click to expand...
It's called "Podcast Ain't Played Nobody" and it is really good.

 
Okay let me see if I can decipher this here..

FPI stands for Football Power Index (?) or Predictor Index, and the percentile is an indicator of the chance at winning (prediction).

Big12: OU (65%), OSU (13%)

ACC: FSU (44%), Clemson (31%)

SEC: LSU (39%), Tennessee (28%), Alabama (13%)

PAC: USC (30%), Washington (23%)

B1G: Michigan (29%), OSU (23%)

Hmmm. I haven't looked at schedules (yet) and rosters of who was lost or added (yet). So this is just a quick opinion on it. First, I really like this Tennessee team. Been following them from a distance the past few years. I hope they win the SEC, but I think they're just a team to make some noise until I see them beat the old guard dogs first (Bama, LSU)... Washington had a good season, but are they really the 2nd best? Over Oregon, UCLA and Stanford? I don't know about all that. And I've seen USC ranked in the top 10 at the start of several seasons to only fizzle out. Lots of talent and new coach, and I think they could win the PAC, but right now it's more of a "wait and see" for the Trojans. So I don't think they would be a smart favorite. And Michigan over OSU? While I like the immediate turnaround the Wolverines had, it just doesn't seem right for them to be the favorite. OSU & Michigan State are still top dogs in my opinion in the B1G. As for the Big 12, OU should be the slight favorite, but OSU, TCU, Baylor will all be in the mix and anything goes in that conference. And finally, in the ACC, I really like what's going on at Clemson. I would have them as the slight favorite over FSU.

I'm sure they (ESPN, which I still enjoy) use metrics with a lot of variables that provides them a better gauge than myself and other college football fans......but some of us fans aren't that far down on our college football mad skills either (tuning in every Saturday year after year, reading up in the offseason, etc), so I guess we will just have to wait and see. I have OU, Clemson, Ala, Oregon, OSU.

 
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