Saunders
Heisman Trophy Winner
You know the story pretty well by now. Nebraska won four of six to finish 2018 and headed into the offseason with major hype and second-year leap potential under Scott Frost. The Huskers remained among the top 15 teams in terms of national title odds as the season approached, but whichever ratings system you prefer -- FPI, SP+, etc. -- it wasn't nearly as high on them as the conventional wisdom.
Thus far, it seems even the ratings were too high on them. The offense performed poorly in a 14-point win against South Alabama, then Nebraska leaped to an early lead at Colorado only to falter late and suffer a demoralizing overtime loss. Instead of a resounding 2-0, the Huskers are 1-1. With the schedule ahead, SP+ has dropped their odds of bowl eligibility to just 40 percent, and any hopes of a 2019 surge require an immediate step forward: Their three worst opponents (per SP+) show up on the schedule over the next four weeks.
The biggest issues right now: The run game has been terribly ineffective, and the defense is giving up too many big plays (and not just of the "96-yard flea-flicker" variety). That makes Northern Illinois an interesting opponent. The Huskies are 38th in marginal explosiveness on offense (a measure of mine that looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays and adjusts for down, distance and field position), and their defense ranks 12th in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line).
The Huskies probably aren't good enough to beat the Huskers without help, but they have plenty of leftover personnel (like linebacker Antonio Jones-Davis) from last year's dynamite defense and will test QB Adrian Martinez and the NU offense. If the Huskers struggle in this one, they might keep struggling for a while.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27601372/separating-fact-fiction-maryland-usc-trevor-lawrence-more