Football moneyball

For lower level football where kickoffs/punts aren't as significant as the college or NFL, I am totally behind this way of thinking.

I think coaches should go for it on 4th down more often in the college and NFL game.

 
I think this style of football would be fun to watch as it would add to the entertainment value but I'm not sure how successful it would be in the higher ranks. If the statistics were available for this coach to have access to you would think more college and NFL coaches would too. Just seems too gimmicky for me.

 
wiuhusker said:
I think this style of football would be fun to watch as it would add to the entertainment value but I'm not sure how successful it would be in the higher ranks. If the statistics were available for this coach to have access to you would think more college and NFL coaches would too. Just seems too gimmicky for me.
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There are a number of instances where the stats say that college and NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down, and they don't. The reason is because the coach doesn't want to be criticized by the media. It's easier for them to do the "safe" thing. Remember when Belichek went for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 against Indy a few years ago? His reasoning was because he didn't want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning, no matter what the field position. The play failed, and he got skewered by the media. Even though if the Pats gained the 1 yard, they had a guaranteed victory.

 
Grantland has a writer, Bill Barnwell, that is always writing articles that look at the statistical side of coaching and coaching decisions. His articles are worth a read.

 
I wonder if his philosophy would change with a big time punter on his team. Very interesting though.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
wiuhusker said:
I think this style of football would be fun to watch as it would add to the entertainment value but I'm not sure how successful it would be in the higher ranks. If the statistics were available for this coach to have access to you would think more college and NFL coaches would too. Just seems too gimmicky for me.
Click to expand...
There are a number of instances where the stats say that college and NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down, and they don't. The reason is because the coach doesn't want to be criticized by the media. It's easier for them to do the "safe" thing. Remember when Belichek went for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 against Indy a few years ago? His reasoning was because he didn't want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning, no matter what the field position. The play failed, and he got skewered by the media. Even though if the Pats gained the 1 yard, they had a guaranteed victory.
Click to expand...
No, the reason is because those statistics deal only with the success rate of 4th & ___ plays in a vacuum, if I'm not mistaken. They say nothing about overall expected value, which is (% success) * (payoff of success) + (% failure) * (payoff of failure). Doesn't take into account at all the cost of going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 35 and blowing it, for example.

 
I coach and I love this idea(s). Last season we punted, I think we had 3 that were returned for TD's and a few that might have netted less than a 10 yard gain. It was foolish of me and I am rethinking it for this upcoming season

 
Imagine if everyone played football this way. Then all of the sudden a crazy coach decided he was going to punt the ball. I bet he would win a lot of games. It's still a very interesting idea though.

 
zoogies said:
ColoradoHusk said:
wiuhusker said:
I think this style of football would be fun to watch as it would add to the entertainment value but I'm not sure how successful it would be in the higher ranks. If the statistics were available for this coach to have access to you would think more college and NFL coaches would too. Just seems too gimmicky for me.
Click to expand...
There are a number of instances where the stats say that college and NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down, and they don't. The reason is because the coach doesn't want to be criticized by the media. It's easier for them to do the "safe" thing. Remember when Belichek went for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 against Indy a few years ago? His reasoning was because he didn't want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning, no matter what the field position. The play failed, and he got skewered by the media. Even though if the Pats gained the 1 yard, they had a guaranteed victory.
Click to expand...
No, the reason is because those statistics deal only with the success rate of 4th & ___ plays in a vacuum, if I'm not mistaken. They say nothing about overall expected value, which is (% success) * (payoff of success) + (% failure) * (payoff of failure). Doesn't take into account at all the cost of going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 35 and blowing it, for example.
Click to expand...
I agree that the plays are taken in a vacuum, but the stats that say that coaches should go for it more often on 4th down look at the expected value of the success on making that 4th down vs. the expected value of the failure on 4th down.

When I pointed out that Belichek example, I am sure he was thinking the following way. If I give Manning the ball at my 30 yard line, there is a 90% chance he is going to score and win the game. But, if I punt the ball away, Manning is still going to score and win the game 70% of the time. But, if the Patriots had converted that 4th down, it would have given them the win 100% of the time. So, the gain from the success on that 4th down, is much more than the loss of the success on that 4th down.

 
zoogies said:
ColoradoHusk said:
wiuhusker said:
I think this style of football would be fun to watch as it would add to the entertainment value but I'm not sure how successful it would be in the higher ranks. If the statistics were available for this coach to have access to you would think more college and NFL coaches would too. Just seems too gimmicky for me.
Click to expand...
There are a number of instances where the stats say that college and NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down, and they don't. The reason is because the coach doesn't want to be criticized by the media. It's easier for them to do the "safe" thing. Remember when Belichek went for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 against Indy a few years ago? His reasoning was because he didn't want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning, no matter what the field position. The play failed, and he got skewered by the media. Even though if the Pats gained the 1 yard, they had a guaranteed victory.
Click to expand...
No, the reason is because those statistics deal only with the success rate of 4th & ___ plays in a vacuum, if I'm not mistaken. They say nothing about overall expected value, which is (% success) * (payoff of success) + (% failure) * (payoff of failure). Doesn't take into account at all the cost of going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 35 and blowing it, for example.
Click to expand...
This is not correct.

Fourth Down Study Part 1

Fourth Down Study Part 2

Fourth Down Study Part 3

Fourth Down Study Part 4

Part four has the final stats so you can skip there if you're short on time.

Here is the expected point values for each fourth down decision (going for it depending on yardage to go, attempting a FG or punting):

3689279484_4667d3b248_o.png


Here is his chart for what you should do of fourth down (the 37 yard line is the dividing line between kicking a FG and punting):

3688516023_07450826e5_o.png


Stats are based on all non-preseason NFL games from 2000-2008.

 
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zoogies said:
ColoradoHusk said:
wiuhusker said:
I think this style of football would be fun to watch as it would add to the entertainment value but I'm not sure how successful it would be in the higher ranks. If the statistics were available for this coach to have access to you would think more college and NFL coaches would too. Just seems too gimmicky for me.
Click to expand...
There are a number of instances where the stats say that college and NFL coaches should go for it on 4th down, and they don't. The reason is because the coach doesn't want to be criticized by the media. It's easier for them to do the "safe" thing. Remember when Belichek went for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 against Indy a few years ago? His reasoning was because he didn't want to give the ball back to Peyton Manning, no matter what the field position. The play failed, and he got skewered by the media. Even though if the Pats gained the 1 yard, they had a guaranteed victory.
Click to expand...
No, the reason is because those statistics deal only with the success rate of 4th & ___ plays in a vacuum, if I'm not mistaken. They say nothing about overall expected value, which is (% success) * (payoff of success) + (% failure) * (payoff of failure). Doesn't take into account at all the cost of going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 35 and blowing it, for example.
Click to expand...
No, ColoradoHusk is correct. Look into Scorecasting. The numbers are clearly there to go for it much more often on fourth down, but the conventions are deeply ingrained, and coaches making millions a year have too much to lose.

 
That's awesome. Although I'm a bit surprised they only recover 20% of onside kicks. I've been saying for quite a few years that if I was a high school coach I'd kick onside kicks every time during one of the early games on the schedule, and then maybe kick one or two per game after that. Except my thought was that it would take away from our opponents' practice time. They would waste a bunch of time practicing onside kicks against us. And that would take away from practicing defense (and maybe offense). But that thought (taking away practice time) wouldn't work as well at the college level since they have more players, and not as many defense/offense starters on the kick receive team.

 
zoogies said:
No, the reason is because those statistics deal only with the success rate of 4th & ___ plays in a vacuum, if I'm not mistaken. They say nothing about overall expected value, which is (% success) * (payoff of success) + (% failure) * (payoff of failure). Doesn't take into account at all the cost of going for it on 4th & 3 from your own 35 and blowing it, for example.
Click to expand...
False. That's exactly what the statistics do. At least if you use the right ones.

 
Another aspect I would like to point out was the fun that the kids have playing like this.

Its no secret that our special teams have had a lot to be desired for.

what do you think the appeal would be? Kids are drawn to different Oregon is catching on fire and their uniforms have a bit to do with that.

I think it would be awesome, but it would have me on edge a lot of the time. The way our d has played the last 6 quarters I would have a lot more confidence.

 
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