Kiyoat Husker
New member
Updated average response after 14 picks:
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon L
Northwestern W
Illinois W
Indy W
Purdue W
Wisc T
tOSU L
Minny W
Mary W
Iowa T
8W, 2T, 2L or 8-10 wins (9 win average)
Game-by-Game W-L Predictions
- Thread starter Kiyoat Husker
- Start date
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon L
Northwestern W
Illinois W
Indy W
Purdue W
Wisc T
tOSU L
Minny W
Mary W
Iowa T
8W, 2T, 2L or 8-10 wins (9 win average)
Nice work. Not sure how you're tracking it but it would be interesting to see a percentage. Difference between 60% of people saying we'll win a game and 100%.
Kiyoat Husker
New member
Just hand-tallying. Ask and you shall receive:
Fresno State 100% Win
Wyoming 100% Win
Oregon 14% Win -- 43% Tossup -- 43% Loss
Northwestern 50% Win -- 29% Tossup -- 21% Loss
Illinois 100% Win
Indiana 79% Win -- 14% Tossup -- 7% Loss
Purdue 100% Win
Wisconsin 29% Win -- 36% Tossup -- 36% Loss
Ohio State 7% Tossup -- 93% Loss
Minnesota 79% Win -- 7% Tossup -- 14% Loss
Maryland 100% Win
Iowa 29% Win -- 43% Tossup -- 29% Loss
Rather than awarding Oregon and Wisconsin .25 wins each, I decided to split the difference and give Oregon a Loss and Wisconsin a Tossup. With a larger sample size this would likely not be an issue.
Another way to look at it:
5 Virtual Sure-wins (yes I know these don't really exist anymore, don't come at me for it)
Fresno, Wyoming, Illinois, Purdue, Maryland
2 Likely wins
Indiana, Minnesota
1 Toss-up leaning towards a win
Northwestern
1 50/50 Toss-up
Iowa
2 Toss-ups leaning towards loss
Oregon, Wisconsin
1 Virtual sure-loss
Ohio State
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r06ue1
New member
Worst case I see is 7-5 and best is 10-2.
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon L
@ Northwestern W (L)
Illinois W
@ Indiana W
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin W (L)
@ tOSU L
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa W (L)
As long as Tommy isn't chucking the ball down field, that is what I see. If he is chucking it, five losses.
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon L
@ Northwestern W (L)
Illinois W
@ Indiana W
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin W (L)
@ tOSU L
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa W (L)
As long as Tommy isn't chucking the ball down field, that is what I see. If he is chucking it, five losses.
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NUance
New member
It looks to me like we don't try any field goals up through the first ten games. Then, feeling sorry for Drew Brown, we let him kick 20 field goals against Maryland. Is this what happens?
huskerenner
New member
In other words, 5 losses! Tommy is not going to suddenly figure it out. Sigh....next up?
melscott62
New member
I honestly laughed out loud. Why do people think we do anything better than .500? .500 is just as laughable IMO. They clearly turned the corner last year. Logic tells you we won't lose as many close games either
One thing I have noticed over the years, confer with a knowledgeable friend or better group of friends and discuss/find consensus on how many games the team really could lose. In all likelihood, they will indeed lose those games.
Wisdom of the Crowd:
http://www.diplomacy.edu/resources/books/reviews/wisdom-crowds-why-many-are-smarter-few
Wisdom of the Crowd:
http://www.diplomacy.edu/resources/books/reviews/wisdom-crowds-why-many-are-smarter-few
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Savage Husker
New member
I see best case scenario 10-2 with back to back losses at Wiscy and OSU. Worst case scenario is 8-4, lose 3 of my 4 Toss-Up games and the 4th loss comes at the hands of a progrum that makes Huskerboard meltdown.
I believe the players are talented enough to be in every game, but I very much question the attention to detail to finish, primarily at the QB position. This team goes as far as he takes them. DL concerns me, but I have belief JP can coach them up to not be the weakest link on the entire team.
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon T
@ Northwestern W
Illinois W
@ Indiana W
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin T
@ tOSU T
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa T
I believe the players are talented enough to be in every game, but I very much question the attention to detail to finish, primarily at the QB position. This team goes as far as he takes them. DL concerns me, but I have belief JP can coach them up to not be the weakest link on the entire team.
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon T
@ Northwestern W
Illinois W
@ Indiana W
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin T
@ tOSU T
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa T
Redux
New member
I guess I don't understand the 5-7 or 6-6 reasoning. Could this season end up like last season? Possible, but not real likely. NU lost 4 games in the last minutes of the game. Is it a defense mechanism? That way if they don't perform like you want you arn't disappointed? I just doesn't seem like many on this board are looking at what the other schools have returning or what they have lost. They only look at what NU has lost.
Do you know that Ohio St only returns 6 starters. Three on offense and three on defense. That is a lot to replace. Doesn't mean NU beats them, because they have a ton of talent still, but that has to give you a little food for thought. Last year OSU had a ton of talent returning and still didn't get it done.
Almost everyone has Wyoming as a slam dunk 3 TD win, but they actually return a ton of starters. Bohl played a ton of young guys that got a lot of experience. I expect them to be much imporved over last year. Would not surprise me in the least if they end up 6-6 maybe even 7-5.
Oregon will be talented, but they lost a ton and have lots of problems, the biggest being finding a QB. That offense doesn't go without a good QB for the system. They couldn't stop anyone last year and are now switching to a 4-3 defense.
Wisconsin lost Stave and a good bit of talent on defense and most importantly they lost their DC. You can run the same basic scheme, but it doesn't always look exactly the same when someone else is calling the defense or offense for that matter. Think Bohl running basically the same stuff as McBride did. You got to look at who they play before us also. They are going to be beat up when we get them.
NW offense was terrible last year and was completely propped up by a really good defense that lost some good talent up on the front end.
These are things that I think about when making predictions. The game that actually scares me is Indiana. They score points on everyone, but have a hard time stopping teams. When a team can score points you never know what will happen.
Anything less than 8-4 and I will be dissappointed. If TA listens and plays like he did against UCLA. This will be a really good offensive team. The loss of experience on the DL is scary, but I like the talent, they just need to step up and play.
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon W
@ Northwestern W
Illinois W
@ Indiana W?
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin T
@ tOSU L
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa T
Do you know that Ohio St only returns 6 starters. Three on offense and three on defense. That is a lot to replace. Doesn't mean NU beats them, because they have a ton of talent still, but that has to give you a little food for thought. Last year OSU had a ton of talent returning and still didn't get it done.
Almost everyone has Wyoming as a slam dunk 3 TD win, but they actually return a ton of starters. Bohl played a ton of young guys that got a lot of experience. I expect them to be much imporved over last year. Would not surprise me in the least if they end up 6-6 maybe even 7-5.
Oregon will be talented, but they lost a ton and have lots of problems, the biggest being finding a QB. That offense doesn't go without a good QB for the system. They couldn't stop anyone last year and are now switching to a 4-3 defense.
Wisconsin lost Stave and a good bit of talent on defense and most importantly they lost their DC. You can run the same basic scheme, but it doesn't always look exactly the same when someone else is calling the defense or offense for that matter. Think Bohl running basically the same stuff as McBride did. You got to look at who they play before us also. They are going to be beat up when we get them.
NW offense was terrible last year and was completely propped up by a really good defense that lost some good talent up on the front end.
These are things that I think about when making predictions. The game that actually scares me is Indiana. They score points on everyone, but have a hard time stopping teams. When a team can score points you never know what will happen.
Anything less than 8-4 and I will be dissappointed. If TA listens and plays like he did against UCLA. This will be a really good offensive team. The loss of experience on the DL is scary, but I like the talent, they just need to step up and play.
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon W
@ Northwestern W
Illinois W
@ Indiana W?
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin T
@ tOSU L
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa T
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RunMickeyRun02
New member
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon T
@ Northwestern T
Illinois W
@ Indiana W (L)
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin T
@ Ohio State L
Minnesota T
Maryland W (L)
@ Iowa T
Normally I would predict we would beat someone we shouldn't (like MSU last year) and lose to someone we shouldn't like Illy and Duey last year. But I only see one for sure loss on the schedule. I'll stick with the lose to someone we shouldn't and say it'll be Indiana or Maryland. Split the T's and since I have 5 I'll go with 3-2 as the universe needs to re-balance after the close losses last year...carry the one......
8-4
Wyoming W
Oregon T
@ Northwestern T
Illinois W
@ Indiana W (L)
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin T
@ Ohio State L
Minnesota T
Maryland W (L)
@ Iowa T
Normally I would predict we would beat someone we shouldn't (like MSU last year) and lose to someone we shouldn't like Illy and Duey last year. But I only see one for sure loss on the schedule. I'll stick with the lose to someone we shouldn't and say it'll be Indiana or Maryland. Split the T's and since I have 5 I'll go with 3-2 as the universe needs to re-balance after the close losses last year...carry the one......
8-4
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The Maudfather
New member
grandpasknee
New member
Fresno W
Wyoming W
Oregon W
@ Northwestern L
Illinois W
@ Indiana W
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin W
@ tOSU L but respectable
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa W in a blowout
Now, time to take my meds and go to sleep....heh heh..oh, maybe with predictions like that I already took my meds....!!!!
Wyoming W
Oregon W
@ Northwestern L
Illinois W
@ Indiana W
Purdue W
@ Wisconsin W
@ tOSU L but respectable
Minnesota W
Maryland W
@ Iowa W in a blowout
Now, time to take my meds and go to sleep....heh heh..oh, maybe with predictions like that I already took my meds....!!!!