Gator Bowl Analysis and Prediction

Had some time, so here's some ridiculous stats:

NU has averaged playing against the #30 scoring and #30 total offense and the #78 scoring and #81 total defense.

Clemson has averaged playing against the #72 scoring and #82 total offense and the #34 scoring and #28 total defense.

If we remove the I-AA teams:

Clemson has averaged playing against the #79 scoring and #87 total offense and the #28 scoring and #25 total defense.

The conclusion isn't too surprising. Clemson has played much better defenses while Nebraska has played much better offenses. Feel free to draw your own results and conclusions from the numbers.

FYI:

Team Scoring O Total O Scoring D Total D

NU 36.17 (#18) 458.25 (#12) 29.17 (#83) 361.5 (#66)

Clemson 25.5 (#62) 339.33 (#81) 16.58 (#10) 294.83 (#17)

Here's the numbers:

NU's opponents:

Team Scoring O Total O Scoring D Total D

W. Mich. 29.83 422.67 23.83 390.33

SJSU 18.67 282.83 21.58 311.67

NMSU 22.17 355.58 34.08 379.58

VT 22.23 296.15 17.46 277.08

Mizzou 43.15 497.46 27.54 414.23

Texas Tech 44.58 536.17 26.25 371.58

ISU 25.33 386.83 35.83 452.83

Baylor 28 376.42 29.33 393.17

OU 54 562.08 24.54 359.08

KU 32.67 431.25 29.5 402.17

KSU 34.92 402.08 35.83 479.08

CU 20.17 318.5 29.25 381.58

Best 54 562.08 17.46 277.08

Worst 18.67 282.83 35.83 479.08

Avg 31.31 405.67 27.92 384.37

Clemson's Opponents (* denote I-AA teams):

Team Scoring O Total O Scoring D Total D

Alabama 31.15 367.15 13 256.92

Citadel* 27.33 364.25 32.83 389.42

NCSU 23.5 326.33 26.08 387.08

SC St.* 29.77 382.46 17 272

Maryland 20.08 341.92 21.42 355

WF 20.33 300.25 18.25 300.33

GT 26.17 377.33 18.83 312.67

BC 25.54 318.46 18.54 273.38

FSU 32.67 368.67 20.75 291.75

Duke 20.08 303.83 23.42 356.92

UVA 16.08 299.75 21.67 333.25

USC 21.67 316.83 20.25 288.92

Best 32.67 382.46 13 256.92

Worst 16.08 299.75 32.83 389.42

Avg 24.53 338.94 21 318.14

Without I-AA teams:

Best 32.67 377.33 13 256.92

Worst 16.08 299.75 26.08 387.08

Avg 23.73 332.05 20.22 315.62

 
Clempsun said:
Trust me, our DB's are anything but soft. Our old defensive coordinator liked to play soft zone coverage and let our speedy/athletic corners play 10-15 yds. off of receivers. We VERY rarely got beat deep in this scheme but gave up the 5-10 yard intermediate routes. This is evident by our high statistical ranking in total defense and avg. yds. per pass given up. Our new coach likes to play more press man w/ our speed & athleticism so I wouldn't bank on getting all of those short routes like we usually give up. I also don't see your recievers being able to bust off big gains against us either...I mean lets face it, they aren't the speediest group. But back to my main point, our DB's will definetly come up and hit you and have talked all season how they love to play press. The past 3 games we have seen more of this with alot of success & forced turnovers.
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Actually, that plays right into our hands. The teams in the past who have given us the most trouble are teams who mix up zone coverages to force our QBs into bad throws in windows they cannot get them in. Joe Ganz is basically a more mobile Zac Taylor. Give him different looks and make him force throws in with his limited arm strength. Giving him man coverage is not and has not been the best philosophy against to defend our QB and WRs.

The biggest thing is people look at our WRs and under-estimate them greatly. What they don't realize is how precise and good our WRs are in and out of their breaks which allows them to get open against the more athletic corners who try to man up on them. A guy like Nate Swift is a pure testament to that is how great he is in his crisp and precise routes. Average speed, but the guy will make DBs freeze in their steps with his breaks.

The route running of our WRs is what allows a noodle armed QB like Joe Ganz the ability to succeed.

Basically -- man coverage versus our WRs isn't a great idea regardless of their speed. If you look at them just being slow and your faster corners will be able to lock them up based on that, you will be in for a rude awakening.

 
BamaBeta said:
Good luck on your bowl game. Seems like Pelini is on the right track. A January 1 bowl game is a good start to his coaching career. Go Huskers and Roll Tide.
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Thanks. Good luck to Bama aswell.

 
Willie makes some good points, don't know about 'noodle arm' though,. I said in a different thread - speeds one thing size is another. You want to put a track fast 5 9 Chancellor up against a 6 4 215 Petterson, we'll take it.

 
HuskerRed949597 said:
NU's offense definitely has the advantage over the Clemson defense. Our #1 T.O.P. rating shows that we wear down defenses physically and mentally over long periods of time. Although the Clemson defense is very talented, I don't see them shutting down our short passing game and zone read option.

Clemson's offense will probably be evenly matched with the NU defense, but NU is still in rebuilding mode and I expect to see a few screw ups and miscommunications out there on game day allowing for Clemson to get points (PLEASE no more fake field goal attempts!).

Special Teams will probably go to Clemson. Our kick-off coverage is horrendous but we have a strong field goal kicker who we will probably have to utilize a couple times against the stingy Clemson defense.

My pick: Nebraska 38 Clemson 27 :w00t
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Well,I guess I have to be the first Husker to pick Clemson.Our defense will GIVE you 14 points.They have done it all year ith breakdowns.Difference is if you have a breakdown on Clemson and their speed its 7.Now I do think we play well offensively and control the ball.I just think the points we GIVE them will be too much to overcome.I think final score looks like CU-31 NU-28.But CU will get AT LEAST 17 poits by NU brakdowns on defense OR special teams.Without those mistakes I like us BIG but as of right now.....WE ARE WHAT WE ARE.A solid offensive team who controls TOP with short passing game and zone read out of spread formations AND A inconsistent defensive team who gives up big plays and whose dbs have trouble covering in space.Rather stout against the run but very suspect to the pass.Hate to do it but mistakes will cost us in this game.

 
SkullandBones said:
Willie makes some good points, don't know about 'noodle arm' though,. I said in a different thread - speeds one thing size is another. You want to put a track fast 5 9 Chancellor up against a 6 4 215 Petterson, we'll take it.
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Staple of the Cornhuskers. What we have generally lacked in speed, we make up for with in your face size and strength. 1995-96 NU vs. Florida anyone?

 
HuskerRed949597 said:
SkullandBones said:
Willie makes some good points, don't know about 'noodle arm' though,. I said in a different thread - speeds one thing size is another. You want to put a track fast 5 9 Chancellor up against a 6 4 215 Petterson, we'll take it.
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Staple of the Cornhuskers. What we have generally lacked in speed, we make up for with in your face size and strength. 1995-96 NU vs. Florida anyone?
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No.

Final Score

NU 13,375

Clemson -346

Yes, Clemson will actually find ways to score NEGATIVE points... :w00t

Ok, now the serious prediction? I think something like 27-21 NU win. Maybe better... maybe closer.. but it will not be a blowout regardless of who wins. I've seen some Clemson video and for me, I just can't imagine Clemson beating Nebraska... Of course there's a reson why they actually play the game. We shall see...

 
SkullandBones said:
Willie makes some good points, don't know about 'noodle arm' though,. I said in a different thread - speeds one thing size is another. You want to put a track fast 5 9 Chancellor up against a 6 4 215 Petterson, we'll take it.
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Ganz's lack of arm strength is reason numero uno why we can not push the ball downfield. Paul and Gilleylen could be foaming at the mouth for deep passes but Ganz legitimately just does not have the arm to get the ball to them. Will be the main reason he cannot go to the next level and why Watson is already talking to him about coaching opportunities.

Same thing haunted Zac Taylor.

 
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