Giving a coach the boot after 3 'Riley-esque' seasons? yay or nay, depending on what?

[Pedro Guerrero]

This is the reason it will be really hard to hire a new coach.   Why would Frost want to come when some fans, like you, are already stating he'll be fired too if he doesn't magically win the championship within a couple/three years?    

If a guy won’t take the Nebraska job because of what some interweb poster is saying, in my opinion they don’t deserve the job.  

Also please point where in my post I said Frost had to win a championship within 3 years (if you could do it in 3 sentences or less that would great).

 

[Nebfanatic]

You're free to argue that.  You're wrong, but you could argue it.

I could try and I don't think I would be wrong, at the very least on the similar part but most around here have their mind made up on everything Riley has done here so whatever I say will fall on deaf ears likely. Not to say he has done a good job, and tonight is further evidence he needs to go but I don't think this team is worse talent wise than it was in 2015. 

 

[Whistlepig]

This is the reason it will be really hard to hire a new coach.   Why would Frost want to come when some fans, like you, are already stating he'll be fired too if he doesn't magically win the championship within a couple/three years?    

Two seasons and 3 games in and the Fire Riley crowd was marching in the streets.   There were a third of fans who wanted him fired the day he was hired.  I can understand being doubtful and even critical of the hire but once the opinion was stated, then move on to support the team and coach, whatever his name is.  We are Husker football fans, not HC Riley Coached football fans.  

The team and program need our full support and encouragement no matter who the coach is or isn't.  I am very disappointed in the team's performance and Riley is largely responsible for that but the players and his coaches and staff bear responsibility as well.  

The mindset by so many fans is that Nebraska's football team just needs the right guy calling the plays and aligning up the defense and "eureka!!!" we playing for the national title.   This program is FAR FAR FAR from being championship calibler.   The next coach will have to be a tremendous recruiter and a player magnet.   Anything short of that and he will have similar results to Riley, Callahan, Solich and Pelini (I believe Riley has more championship teams than the other three combined??).    Osborne was given 23 seasons to win a title and about 8 years to get the team over the hump of OU and that was after taking over a team with good talent, depth and a couiple national titles and a heisman trophy winner on the roster.  

Whether Frost would dare to risk his entire future career on the 'undying' support of Husker fans who will cheerfully burn him at the stake after the second 4 TD loss  in year two is a very difficult question.  Solich had Osborne to give him some cover for a couple seasons although Tom failed to support him as time went on and I think this was unfair.   Tom should have helped him recruit and be involved on some level 'publicly although it did appear that Tom and Solich were not getting along well at that time.  Now we have an unknown outsider with no fan appeal as AD hired by a President Greene (basically nobody in Nebraska alumna base knows or cares about really).  Who will shield Frost when he needs some cover when things don't go blazingly well right from the start?    Ronnie Greene?    Not a chance.  The Governor?   Former Senator Bob Kerry and Ben Nelson?   LOL   There is nobody folks!

If we don't hire Frost (I would not want to bet my money on that happening because Frost is hopefully smarter than that), then the next coach will be no better than the one we have now in all likelihood.   The next one better have thick skin (Mike surely has it as he could have lashed out plenty of times already) and better have lots of patience.   He's gong to need a lot of luck and more time than 24 months.  

'   

there are so many things wrong in this manifesto of.....??? what? Greene?? that's Chancellor Green for one- the University President is Hank Bounds....TO failed to support Solich?, where do you get that? and don't put Callahan and Riley in with winning coaches, Riley won what Championship? remind me? oh yeah a Canadian league pro game or some crap, I guess Bo's championship last year doesn't count- also a toothless gerbil would be a better coach than the "one we have now"

BTW what is your point? oh yeah we're not fans of Riley coached Nebraska or something as quixotic as that- 

 

[Hingle McCringleberry]

Osborne was given 23 seasons to win a title

 You gloss over two decades of what was part of one the greatest dynasties in CFB history with that kind of statement?

Tom should have helped him recruit and be involved on some level 'publicly

No.  It was Franks program, I'm sure it took a lot for TO to remain in the shadows.  What could Tom do to help recruiting "why hello young man, you won't be playing for me but I sure would like you to come to NU". 

unknown outsider with no fan appeal as AD

What?  Name any other AD without Google.  I can think of one, DeLoss Dodd, only due to his unique name and the incredible job he did at UT, and he's retired.  SE was correct insofar ADs should not really be known.

Frost would dare to risk his entire future career on the 'undying' support of Husker fans who will cheerfully burn him at the stake

Mmmmmkkkkkay....  Nebraska is a fishbowl, just like any other Blue Blood program.  Overall, we actually seem to handle ourselves pretty well.  I've yet to see anyone fly planes over games with banners slamming the coach (Tenn, Mich), possibly make death threats (Fla), or poison historic trees (granted that guy was a nutter but point still stands).  If we get a new coach people will be critical, people will send messages and post how they think the new guy isn't cutting if for (insert reason here).  I cant remember who said it at the announcement of SEs termination, it's when those messages stop, that's when we need to worry.

 

[HuskerJax]

If Riley was in his mid 40s or even early 50s these 3 years would be more acceptable and I could use the patience to see if he could rebuild things. Problem is, Riley is in his mid 60s, and lets just say he could turn things around, and lets say at best it's in 2 years, because looking at next years schedule he isn't winning any titles, then Riley is looking at his late 60s and probably nearing retirement. So what does that do for Nebraska? 5 years with the Cornhuskers, maybe we get one 10 win season with him, he retires, then we are looking for a new coach and "rebuilding" again. This scenario was exactly why the hiring of Riley was so baffling, if he didn't have immediate success, the hire made no sense.

Bingo! There is really no upside to keeping him, we are going to be looking for a new coach in the next few years anyway. If this is the time to get frost(if he is the choice) then no reason to wait

 

[Enhance]

I feel like this question, and the data to support the conclusions, has been thoroughly covered in other threads.

I agree. Specifically, this has been discussed in the Scott Frost megathread. I know because I took part in it.

I'm going to leave it open for now but I'd like to request everyone stop discussing specific replacement coaches or candidates. I know Frost was mentioned in the OP, however, his name has been mentioned 33 times so far in this thread. That's almost a one per post average. Every thread about Riley doesn't also have to include Frost.

 

[ebohnart]

You cannot compare apples and oranges. Riley is not a Saban or Urban quality coach. The problem I have is that Riley has not gotten better. Think about the losses last season. They were close games and last second losses. The only argument I keep hearing for keeping him is the recruiting class, but no one seems to remember how a team's record on the field effects the class he's recruiting as well. At this point, is it asking too much to even be competitive with a Wisconsin? Or to not lose to an NIU?

 

[gobiggergoredder]

I'm glad they won the the way they did yesterday.  I want the win for the kids/programs, but it's time for Riley to hit the road.

The coaching/leadership of this team is so bad.

I still can't get over going for it on 4th down in the first quarter inside your own 30.  Why can't they block anyone on a punt return (Bootle did)?  Why do they chuck low percentage throws when they absolutely need a play?

I don't believe the kids are as bad as the product that is on the field.  Also not seeing much pro Riley comments from the kids that you tend to see when the coach is on the way out.  I don't care about recruiting anymore.  This is a soft program and HMR needs to be told this week "You will finish the season, but you are out after the Iowa loss".

 

[1994 Husker]

..a competent leader can recognize hard to see causes to his organizational failures that are happening, he can see the root, not the superficial symptoms...well, Mike Reilly does not have this ability. His whole methodology and approach to football is counter productive. Look at his offensive style, it’s reslly a pass heavy ideology..so I practice what’s are the linemen doing..practing going backwards in pass protection...this fosters a passive, soft mentality as this type of blocking is not violent in nature at all compared to the techniques of run blocking..this line plays exactly what they practice..Riley is absolutely clueless that it’s his own offensive style he choose which is simply not right for his players and IMO not right at all..

 

[Nebhawk]

Last night supported all the notions that Riley isn't meant to coach here or maybe anywhere that involves P5 School.  

Last nights win was the first win against a Top 60 team.  They are still ranked ahead of us after the win!  Ark St was our highest rated team we beat until last night at #72.  Hell, NIU is ranked at #77 and they beat us.  Our losses have come to #2, #11, #27, and #77 in ESPN power rankings.  If we would have competed in those games against Top 30 teams, yeah it wouldn't look at bad.  We haven't competed.  

Final Power Rankings will tell us all we want to know at seasons end.  KSU is #36 with a 4-4 record.  Texas Tech is higher than that 4-4.

Yeah, we need an upgrade.  And need it fast.

 

[MichiganDad3]

This is the reason it will be really hard to hire a new coach.   Why would Frost want to come when some fans, like you, are already stating he'll be fired too if he doesn't magically win the championship within a couple/three years?    

Two seasons and 3 games in and the Fire Riley crowd was marching in the streets.   There were a third of fans who wanted him fired the day he was hired.  I can understand being doubtful and even critical of the hire but once the opinion was stated, then move on to support the team and coach, whatever his name is.  We are Husker football fans, not HC Riley Coached football fans.  

The team and program need our full support and encouragement no matter who the coach is or isn't.  I am very disappointed in the team's performance and Riley is largely responsible for that but the players and his coaches and staff bear responsibility as well.  

The mindset by so many fans is that Nebraska's football team just needs the right guy calling the plays and aligning up the defense and "eureka!!!" we playing for the national title.   This program is FAR FAR FAR from being championship calibler.   The next coach will have to be a tremendous recruiter and a player magnet.   Anything short of that and he will have similar results to Riley, Callahan, Solich and Pelini (I believe Riley has more championship teams than the other three combined??).    Osborne was given 23 seasons to win a title and about 8 years to get the team over the hump of OU and that was after taking over a team with good talent, depth and a couiple national titles and a heisman trophy winner on the roster.  

Whether Frost would dare to risk his entire future career on the 'undying' support of Husker fans who will cheerfully burn him at the stake after the second 4 TD loss  in year two is a very difficult question.  Solich had Osborne to give him some cover for a couple seasons although Tom failed to support him as time went on and I think this was unfair.   Tom should have helped him recruit and be involved on some level 'publicly although it did appear that Tom and Solich were not getting along well at that time.  Now we have an unknown outsider with no fan appeal as AD hired by a President Greene (basically nobody in Nebraska alumna base knows or cares about really).  Who will shield Frost when he needs some cover when things don't go blazingly well right from the start?    Ronnie Greene?    Not a chance.  The Governor?   Former Senator Bob Kerry and Ben Nelson?   LOL   There is nobody folks!

If we don't hire Frost (I would not want to bet my money on that happening because Frost is hopefully smarter than that), then the next coach will be no better than the one we have now in all likelihood.   The next one better have thick skin (Mike surely has it as he could have lashed out plenty of times already) and better have lots of patience.   He's gong to need a lot of luck and more time than 24 months.  

'   

TO's worst season was better than any of the 3 seasons MR has had here. No one says fire Frost if he doesn't win in 3 years, but two losing seasons out of three, a loss to a MAC school, multiple blowouts including a curb stomping against osu. Yep, I say those are grounds for dismissal.

What risk is there for Frost in coming to Nebraska? A five year contract worth probably 6 million per year. I'll take that risk. The alternative is a Florida team that fires a coach in year 3 with divisional championships in his first two years, and tries to do it on cause so the coach does not get the money remaining on his contract. Add in the fact that MR has run this program so far into the ground that we have fans that think a 7 win season and a 1 point win over a 3-5 Purdue team is fantastic.

This is the perfect situation for Frost. Expectations are lower than ever. Nearly everyone knows MR has destroyed the program. If we hire one more bad coach, merchandising revenue is way down, the sellout streak is gone, and the Nebraska football brand is dead. Couple that with UCFs performance, Tennessee and Florida looking for new coaches, and the salary Frost can command is at an all time high.

 

[I.M. OLD]

I could try and I don't think I would be wrong, at the very least on the similar part but most around here have their mind made up on everything Riley has done here so whatever I say will fall on deaf ears likely. Not to say he has done a good job, and tonight is further evidence he needs to go but I don't think this team is worse talent wise than it was in 2015. 

Until the Riley recruits are done with their 4th or 5th year, no one knows how good they are, for the most part. People bag on BP's kids after the fact, but say how great Rileys kids are before they have a chance to pass or fail. Only a time traveler can say if the current kids are better or worse. You can also bag on BP for his last 2 years , but most of the local mouths/media were screaming for him to be fired for most of those, and that DID have an effect on who he got to come here.

 

[junior4949]

I didn't compare Riley to Saban; in fact I specifically said:

The question was brought up because I wanted to know if elite coaches had a longer leash if they, for whatever reason, put together 1-poor, 1-mediocre, and 1-very poor season in a row?

and, MORE IMPORTANTLY, if we hired Frost or a big name HC everyone was happy with; would we afford them an extra year if they put together three sub-par seasons riddled with blowouts and losses to pedestrian programs.

This has probably been answered time and time again.  Fulmer was forced out at Tennessee after winning a NC and then putting a string of not so great seasons together.  Lloyd Carr won a NC and really didn't have terrible seasons but was still forced out.  Larry Coker pretty much the same.  Frank Solich.  Les Miles.  I'm sure the list goes on and on. 

 

[TGHusker]

So all of this begs these questions :dunno : 

1. HOW MANY YEARS WOULD YOU GIVE SCOTT TO TURN THE PROGRAM AROUND BEFORE WE DISCUSS HIS REPLACEMENT?

2. HOW DO YOU DEFINE: TURN THE PROGRAM AROUND - WHEN DO YOU CONSIDER IT 'TURNED'?

Me:

1.  I say we give Scott a 6 year contract - to show confidence & patience upfront & that we believe he will be successful here. We offer significant upgrades in pay for his OC and DC.

2.  Turn around = consistently having 10-12 win seasons (a sub par 8-9 season thrown in), CCG, Playoff contender. 

Wishful Goal - play in CCG by 2 year, win the CCG and a playoff team year 3 or 4  (Year 1 may not be all that great regardless of coach - but under Frost or other good coach I expect we could get to 7 win minimum and maybe 8)

 

[Undone]

Riley's age and Scott Frost's success are the reasons for the short leash. If Riley was under ~55 years old and Frost's record was .500, Riley would has 1-3 more years depending on his records.

Why give him time to right the ship just so he can retire anyway?

Good post. This is a good summary.

Riley could have been what might be called a "bridge hire." He really had that potential. The problem was bringing his average-to-bad staff with him. 

I still think our final record this season should technically dictate whether or not he is retained. But it probably won't. I would assume we've reached out to Frost in some way to put out a feeler for his interest in the job.

And I believe that if Frost reports back that he's interested, it's probably almost a done deal. If he's not interested, then Riley's record at the end of the regular season plays even heavier into whether or not he's retained. But let's say we lose by two scores to Penn State and go 7-5. That makes Riley's first three seasons' regular season records consist of:

-2015: 5-7

-2016: 9-3

-2017: 7-5

He'd have a 58% winning percentage, but he'd have failed to even just win his division. I just don't see any indication that he'll actually be competitive at winning this conference because he hasn't even been competitive at winning his own division.