Help Me Understand why NU is a 7 point favorite

Illinois is not very good. It is difficult as a fan to not be scared after getting destroyed by them last year, but we just didn't even show up for that game. Vegas can look at it and see that Nebraska is the better team, as fans (of either team) it's hard to let go of last year's result. Still have to play the game though.

 
Most of the defense that gave up 285 rushing yards to Illinois last year returns, though. And while we don't have the same guys who committed the turnovers as last year, we have a QB well known for turning the ball over. 

Plus, the game is in Champaign, and Nebraska has performed poorly under Frost on the road (4-11), with wins over Illinois & Maryland (2019) and Purdue & Rutgers (2020).

Add the fact that Illinois is now coached by Bret Bielema, who has a much better track record in the Big Ten than any current Nebraska coach, and I'm with OP - I don't see why we're favored. 

 
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Nebraska is 14 points better based on player advantage, 7 points worse at coaching.  Zero points for homefield advantage because lol Illinois.  Boom 7 points.

 
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The thing to do, for those of you who just can’t see it, is to bet big on Illinois at +7. Hopefully there are enough of you to move the line down to 6.5 so I can put even more on Nebraska.

IMO it takes some pretty serious PTSD (which is understandable for any Husker fan) to not think Nebraska is 7 points better at this point. Illinois has a new coaching staff and relatively little proof of an offense. On D their linebackers are about the only redeeming factor. By all accounts Nebraska’s defense is supposed to be better and the offense greatly improved. But none of that matters until we prove it on the field Saturday.

 
knapplc said:
Most of the defense that gave up 285 rushing yards to Illinois last year returns, though. And while we don't have the same guys who committed the turnovers as last year, we have a QB well known for turning the ball over. 

Plus, the game is in Champaign, and Nebraska has performed poorly under Frost on the road (4-11), with wins over Illinois & Maryland (2019) and Purdue & Rutgers (2020).

Add the fact that Illinois is now coached by Bret Bielema, who has a much better track record in the Big Ten than any current Nebraska coach, and I'm with OP - I don't see why we're favored. 
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That was pretty far and away our worst defensive performance against the run though, and their best offensive game overall. It was an outlier for both teams, and by definition you're not going to expect another outlier. 

That was quite a while ago, and I don't think a Big Ten track record from 2012 outweighs their personnel deficiencies and the relatively light track records of the rest of the staff. A lot has changed in 9 years.

 
JJ Husker said:
The thing to do, for those of you who just can’t see it, is to bet big on Illinois at +7. Hopefully there are enough of you to move the line down to 6.5 so I can put even more on Nebraska.

IMO it takes some pretty serious PTSD (which is understandable for any Husker fan) to not think Nebraska is 7 points better at this point. Illinois has a new coaching staff and relatively little proof of an offense. On D their linebackers are about the only redeeming factor. By all accounts Nebraska’s defense is supposed to be better and the offense greatly improved. But none of that matters until we prove it on the field Saturday.
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Do yourself a solid

Tease NU to -1 (or even if you can) and Ohio State to -6.5 at Minny

 
Perfect situation to win something out if this game regardless of the outcome. 

Take Illinois +7.

Nebraska wins by more than 7, well at least they won.

Nebraska wins by 1 to 6 points you win both ways.

A tie or an Illini win and least you'll have funds to drink yourself into Monday.

 
There’s a video in another thread with Illinois players having fun and acting loosely. Scott looked tense in the presser yesterday. Coupled with Scott’s track record as a favorite, I don’t see how we’re not a 3-5 point dog. 
 

No hate, I’m hopeful, but we need to see a good product Saturday. 

 
DefenderAO said:
There’s a video in another thread with Illinois players having fun and acting loosely. Scott looked tense in the presser yesterday. Coupled with Scott’s track record as a favorite, I don’t see how we’re not a 3-5 point dog. 
 

No hate, I’m hopeful, but we need to see a good product Saturday. 
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There is zero pressure on Illinois.  They are starting fresh with a new coach and no expectations.  They should act loose and care free.  Nebraska on the other hand is up against a wall in the first game of the year. 

Even so, the talent difference is large.  If Nebraska can win the turnover margin, they win by 2-3 scores.  I personally think the line should be closer to 10 where it started.  The only reason it has come down some is money being placed on Illinois.  

 
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