Help Me Understand why NU is a 7 point favorite

JJ Husker said:
This. The line opened at Neb -7.5 and moved to -7. The reason it has stayed at -7 is because people are betting relatively equally on both sides. The line has to do with how much money and on whom it is being bet. Really has very little to do with either football team. It’s just the general consensus of gamblers.
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I mean kinda, but the actual opening total itself is based on the teams on the field.... Sure movement on money might swing the line a bit but based off the opening line of 7.5 vegas thinks nebraska is probably a 10-11 point favorite on a neutral site

 
hskrfan4life said:
Jesus, only Coach showing steady improvement and he still can't catch a break.
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lol, seriously.... I mean dont get me wrong, I wish we brought the pressure a bit more and upped the turnovers but thats prolly more of a by product of his bend dont break mentality coupled with no pass rush.  Chins taken a lot of heat and has had, by far, the most steady unit (off, def, special teams) by far

 
I think it's very telling, that we are favored to win this game on the road.  Whether the Huskers win by 7 or 70 doesn't matter actually. 

A TD point spread (or less) means it should be a close game.  I know our guys will take a road win and probably feel good about being slightly favored to win.

And this isn't Ohio State we playing.

 
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Not saying I'm confident about this one by any stretch, after the past three years count me in the "will believe it when I see it" club, but some pluses to consider:

Illinois will be in their first game of new schemes on both sides of the ball. They will likely have some hiccups. If we aren't more in-synch than they are it's going to be a very long season. 

Folks look at Bret at Wiscy and underestimate how much Barry was still impacting that program. There is a reason they've stayed good with two coaches that struggled after leaving Wiscy and another that was nothing special coaching Pitt. 

This team didn't come to play Illinois last season. They were coming-off the PSU win and had beaten Illinois the past two seasons, they were heavy favorites, took the game for granted. Should be more motivated and focused this game.

Last season had a ridiculous amount of turnovers even by our standards and the one that started the game really set the tone. Doubt we'll be turnover-free but for piss-sakes we shouldn't have five. 

Our ST's have been largely garbage the past three seasons. We're finally putting the necessary time into them and have two guys with P5 ST's experience handling them. Busch is an upgrade on Rutledge and Dawson is an upgrade on the "by committee" approach where nobody took ownership. Could make a real difference this season.

We are obviously unproven but we should have more firepower on O this time around. We have a big, talented wr group that should provide the return of a vertical passing game, which would not only give us back quick-strike ability but also loosen-up defenses so the rest of the O works better. I think we have a talented, eclectic group at rb that will be an upgrade overall over last season where we had an often-hampered Mills, a small moonlighting wr, and guys that are now buried on the depthchart. 

The last game against against Illinois was hands-down the D's worst of the season. They played better after that and most starters are back. As Reimers said they were embarrassed and are looking for payback. Plus we added a few pieces that could well help. 

 
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gossamorharpy said:
I mean kinda, but the actual opening total itself is based on the teams on the field.... Sure movement on money might swing the line a bit but based off the opening line of 7.5 vegas thinks nebraska is probably a 10-11 point favorite on a neutral site
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Yes, but Vegas also tries to set the opening line as close as possible to where it will settle so they’re really picking where they think the money will go.

6 of one, half a dozen of the other I guess.  They do a scary good job of getting things pretty right most of the time. At the end of the day it usually ends up being a pretty darned good indicator. Its gotta be tough in a matchup like this one. A new staff on one hand and a team that has not lived up to expectations on the other…in the first game out of the chute after a jacked up year. How can anyone be sure which way it will go? 

 
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Line opened way early at -9.5 and now is at -7, not a big crazy move but still a move.

The big one.  NU vs Michigan.

I grabbed Michigan at +2.5.  Now it is Michigan -3

6 point swing is huge.

2 point swing is not that big of a deal but you had a lot of money that loved Illinois getting over a TD, which makes sense in the betting world.  This line movement is more of a reaction of people trying to make money than it is who they think will win.

 
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admo said:
I think it's very telling, that we are favored to win this game on the road.  Whether the Huskers win by 7 or 70 doesn't matter actually. 

A TD point spread (or less) means it should be a close game.  I know our guys will take a road win and probably feel good about being slightly favored to win.

And this isn't Ohio State we playing.
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Winning by 70 is much better than winning by 7. The former would show me something I had not seen in the Frost era and gives me hope against Oklahoma. The latter would make me wonder how late in the 4th is Buffalo still hanging around. 

 
suh_fan93 said:
That's what they said last year.  I just hope we actually have some resemblance of an improved offense on Saturday and that our hyped defense doesn't end up not showing well either.
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Right, there's always a chance this is one of those games we just don't show up for. I will always be worried about that. But that seems unlikely given that it's the first game of the year and we got outright embarrassed by them at home last year. I have zero concerns about scheme or talent being the problem, so then it's just motivation/effort. And not turning the effing ball over. Only the last one has much legitimacy behind it.

 
teachercd said:
Line opened way early at -9.5 and now is at -7, not a big crazy move but still a move.

The big one.  NU vs Michigan.

I grabbed Michigan at +2.5.  Now it is Michigan -3

6 point swing is huge.

2 point swing is not that big of a deal but you had a lot of money that loved Illinois getting over a TD, which makes sense in the betting world.  This line movement is more of a reaction of people trying to make money than it is who they think will win.
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What’s the EV lookin like?

 
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