Help Me Understand why NU is a 7 point favorite

Mudhen said:
Jimmy the Greek made the Colts a 17 point favorite over the Jets in Super Bowl III.
When the sports press was highly critical over his line after the game, He replied “That was the best line I ever made“

There has been a lot of misinformation about Vegas betting, and maybe most
of you already know this, Teachercd gets it, and I don’t want to talk
down to anyone so here is a refresher betting 101:
VEGAS DOESN’T CARE WHO WINS! They are like a holding company,
They take a bet from Al the cab driver in NYC for Nebraska -7 for $110 to win $100.
They take a bet from Joe the barber in LA for Illinois +7 for $110 to win $100.
Vegas does not care who wins. They will get $10 (vig) and all that does add up.
Vegas sets the line to predict who will be putting down cash on equal sides.
(It is the public who sifts through data with the offense vs defense matchups, coaching advantage, QB, revenge game, home field, returning starters, injuries, etc. and bets accordingly) You are betting against someone who bet against you, not Vegas.
If too much action is on one side, then the line moves.

Someone mentioned earlier that they do a scary good job at this. Very true.
Click to expand...


Well, yeah. That's kinda the point. Because Vegas has zero sentiment and larger motives, they are going to be more accurate than the average college football expert who probably won't get fired or his legs broken. Vegas is scary good because they're usually pretty close. They listen to the same chatter, and I think they actually do follow injuries, rumors, and coaching histories. 

Vegas likes individual games, not teams. But even then they love teams that draw action. I'd have to research it, but I don't think Nebraska has done well against the spread in recent years, but as a team habitually on the rise we probably draw more than our share of action for an unranked team. 

 
BigRedBuster said:
I don't think so.  the sheer volume of bets they process, they make huge amounts of money just on having even money on both sides.  If they do what you say, that's a small percentage of the number of lines they put out.
Click to expand...


It really depends on the sport, as I mentioned for higher volume stuff like the NFL and national championship/high profile college games, yes.  For lighter bet events (which are the majority of them) they shade their lines.

 
teachercd said:
Is it?  

I don't really know about "gambling do's and don'ts" is that considered a bad thing?
Click to expand...


You're giving away too much value crossing the zero line as -.5/0/+.5 are all considered dead numbers.  This would also include -1 and +1 if your book's policy is ties lose on teasers.

 
Xmas32 said:
You're giving away too much value crossing the zero line as -.5/0/+.5 are all considered dead numbers.  This would also include -1 and +1 if your book's policy is ties lose on teasers.
Click to expand...
Yeah but the line was -6.5, I moved it to NU +.5

 
teachercd said:
Right but now I don't need the Huskers to win by 7 points.  They can win 28-27 and I still win.
Click to expand...


Right..but .-5 is still a dead number, it's giving away value for the sake of value.  If you tease through zero, you don't gain enough probable final margins to outweigh the burden of having to be right twice to win one bet.  It's just hard to beat the baked in juice that teasers charge you while giving away that value.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I can't see how this guy could be correct.  I think we win by three TD's.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-expert-picks-predictions-for-week-0-2021-nebraska-vs-illinois-goes-under-55/amp/#amp_tf=From %1%24s&aoh=16299997921274&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com

"Look for empty drives, field goals instead of touchdowns and an ultra-low scoring affair deep into the second half," Sallee told SportsLine. "This will be a game of mistakes, not big plays."

 
BigRedN said:
I can't see how this guy could be correct.  I think we win by three TD's.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-expert-picks-predictions-for-week-0-2021-nebraska-vs-illinois-goes-under-55/amp/#amp_tf=From %1%24s&aoh=16299997921274&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com

"Look for empty drives, field goals instead of touchdowns and an ultra-low scoring affair deep into the second half," Sallee told SportsLine. "This will be a game of mistakes, not big plays."
Click to expand...


Yeah that's an incredibly weird take. Yes, Bielema is a new coach. But the past 3 meetings have been:

2018: 1,115 combined yards, 89 points

2019: 973 combined yards, 80 points (674 yards were Nebraska)

2020: 882 combined yards, 64 points

I do think we'll hold them to less than the 490 they got last year (definitely less than 41 points), but nothing about this game implies it'll be low scoring. 

 
JJ Husker said:
This has shades of how they coddled Mo Wash for far too long. I don’t care what the “potential” is. Frost needs to identify this crap quicker and move on.
Click to expand...


This is 100% speculation on my part, but I suspect that it's something closer to a Randy Gregory situation than Mo Washington. Not in the sense of failed drug tests, but in the sense of a guy battling some mental health demons, with mixed results. The biggest thing to me is that unlike with Washington (or even Gregory), I haven't really heard anything negative about him in terms of off the field issues. Considering that, I wouldn't be in favor of giving him the boot.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Toe said:
This is 100% speculation on my part, but I suspect that it's something closer to a Randy Gregory situation than Mo Washington. Not in the sense of failed drug tests, but in the sense of a guy battling some mental health demons, with mixed results. The biggest thing to me is that unlike with Washington (or even Gregory), I haven't really heard anything negative about him in terms of off the field issues. Considering that, I wouldn't be in favor of giving him the boot.
Click to expand...
I agree that his issues seem to be more akin to Gregory but RG wasn’t Frost’s problem. I used Mo as the example because I don’t feel it is ever good in a team setting to have a rogue character with seemingly different rules. That stuff is a disease for team chemistry and I don’t think it’s worth letting it fester. So far the juice hasn’t been worth the squeeze and every day it seems less likely it ever will be.

 
JJ Husker said:
This has shades of how they coddled Mo Wash for far too long. I don’t care what the “potential” is. Frost needs to identify this crap quicker and move on.
Click to expand...


First, if he's been demoted to second team and/or nearly out of the rotation (at least at the moment), it seems that's exactly what he's doing.

Second, we would seem to have significantly more depth at WR now than we did at RB two years ago so it's probably easier to have less tolerance for this now.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top