Husker Football Entering Precarious Period

teachercd said:
Now...why some posters won't face a few simple facts is sort of funny and sad. If this team wins 6 or 7 games it will mean that it will have had to have lost some combonation of games that includes, most likely, these teams:

OSU

PSU

Wisconsin

Now, that leaves 2 or 3 more losses. Which means those 2 or 3 more losses will come from:

NIU

Oregon

Iowa

Purdue

NW

Minny

Ark St

Rutgers

Illinois

So, the "7 wins can show progress" crowd would really be okay with 5...3 from the "obvious" list and 2 more from the lame list? Stop it...just stop.

Now, I can TOTALLY see Riley pulling a Riley...Losing to Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue and NW...but beating OSU and PSU and everyone creaming themselves.
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I'd be fine with it. Then again, I'm always fine with any result, but boiling everything down into W's and L's does a disservice to how good a team is or can be.

If we lose to OSU, Penn State and WIsconsin and they all end up in the top 10 at the end of the season, then we drop two nailbiters by less than a score each to a resurgent Top 25 Oregon team and a better Iowa or Northwestern squad, it happens. If that's the lame list, then what are we? We've lost to a lot of those teams. Every game we play with Northwestern is a nailbiter, Iowa has won 3 of the last 4, etc.

 
Landlord of Memorial Stadium said:
teachercd said:
Now...why some posters won't face a few simple facts is sort of funny and sad. If this team wins 6 or 7 games it will mean that it will have had to have lost some combonation of games that includes, most likely, these teams:

OSU

PSU

Wisconsin

Now, that leaves 2 or 3 more losses. Which means those 2 or 3 more losses will come from:

NIU

Oregon

Iowa

Purdue

NW

Minny

Ark St

Rutgers

Illinois

So, the "7 wins can show progress" crowd would really be okay with 5...3 from the "obvious" list and 2 more from the lame list? Stop it...just stop.

Now, I can TOTALLY see Riley pulling a Riley...Losing to Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue and NW...but beating OSU and PSU and everyone creaming themselves.
Click to expand...


I'd be fine with it. Then again, I'm always fine with any result, but boiling everything down into W's and L's does a disservice to how good a team is or can be.

If we lose to OSU, Penn State and WIsconsin and they all end up in the top 10 at the end of the season, then we drop two nailbiters by less than a score each to a resurgent Top 25 Oregon team and a better Iowa or Northwestern squad, it happens. If that's the lame list, then what are we? We've lost to a lot of those teams. Every game we play with Northwestern is a nailbiter, Iowa has won 3 of the last 4, etc.
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What are we? A crappy 7-5 team.

Look, the scenario you just gave would be a great 7-5 season for KU or Oregon St or Cal or Rutgers or Maryland or GT...

But for NU it is not some great 7-5 season. It just isn't.

"Every game is play with Northwestern is a nailbiter" Great...but those games should not be nailbiters. We made soooo much fun of NW and Iowa before joining the Big Ten...Now we are "okay" with close losses to them?

 
NU is a worse football team now than we were before MR. We need a good season to prevent a collapse. If we have another sub par season and lose the sellout streak, I doubt we will be able to recruit top talent.

 
I don't mind being patient, although I understand being very disappointed with anything less than 9. The recruiting is excellent and the staff has been majorly upgraded. The cupboards are filling, the only question now is if MR is the guy to take the next step. I'd like him to be.

Assuming a 6 to 8 win season doesn't mean a recruiting collapse, then I'm fine with that as long as there is promise. But 2018 has to a great season, no matter how brutal it is. The OLine will have no excuse by then, there will be a lot of talent coming back and on campus, and regardless of who the QB is, there is no reason not to have a great offense. The defense will be in year two and despite losing some talent, there will still be a lot of talent left.

@Michigan and @Ohio St is brutal, I get losing those. But @Wisconsin and @Iowa? Nope, it's time to win games like that on the road. For me, a weak '17 season makes me lose sympathy for the tough '18 schedule. A weak '18 season and it's time to move on.

 
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People weren't satisfied with Bo Pelini's 9 win seasons.

They weren't satisfied with Mike Riley's 9 win season, either.

Nothing wrong with that. You can be patient without being satisfied. They kind of go together. Bo got 7 seasons. Mike is gearing up for year three.

I think there's reason for optimism. We're already acting upset about this 7-5 season that hasn't been played yet.

 
BigRedBuster said:
MichiganDad3 said:
NU is a worse football team now than we were before MR. We need a good season to prevent a collapse. If we have another sub par season and lose the sellout streak, I doubt we will be able to recruit top talent.
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What are you basing this on?
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It's actually pretty damn close, but by the numbers I suppose it's correct. The year before Riley we went 9-4, losing to USC by 3, Minnesota by 4, #5 Michigan State (end of season ranking) by 5 and #13 Wisconsin by 35.

Last year we went 9-4, losing to Tennessee by 14, Iowa by 30, #6 Ohio State by 59, and #9 Wisconsin by 7.

 
Here's a quick and dirty comparison since we joined the B1G.

2011: @ #7 Wisconsin (31), Northwestern (3), @ Michigan (28), S. Car (17) - Average Loss: 19.75 PPG

2012: @ #22 UCLA (6), @12 Ohio State (25), Wisconsin (39), #7 Georgia (14) - Average Loss: 21 PPG

2013: #16 UCLA (20), @ Minnesota (11), #14 MSU (13), Iowa (21) - Average Loss: 16.25 PPG

2014: @ #10 MSU (5), @ #22 Wisconsin (25), Minnesota (4), #24 USC (3) - Average Loss: 9.25 PPG

2015: BYU (5), Miami (3), Illinois (1), Wisconsin (2), Northwestern (2), Purdue (10), #3 Iowa (8) - Average Loss: 4.43 PPG

2016: @ #11 Wisconsin (6), @ #6 Ohio State (59), @ Iowa (30), Tennessee (14) - Average 27.25 PPG

Obviously, the OSU debacle last year really throws that number out of wack, so if you were to drop that number in half, it's still about 19.5 PPG.

 
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BigRedBuster said:
MichiganDad3 said:
NU is a worse football team now than we were before MR. We need a good season to prevent a collapse. If we have another sub par season and lose the sellout streak, I doubt we will be able to recruit top talent.
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What are you basing this on?
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Depending on how you're going to define "now".....

Final Sagarin rankings:

2016 - 45

2015 - 42

2014 - 29

2013 - 38

2012 - 22

2011 - 25

2010 - 27

2009 - 14

2008 - 23

2007 - 61

2006 - 30

2005 - 24

2004 - 68

2003 - 23

2002 - 41

2001 - 5

2000 - 4

1999 - 2

1998 - 9

So there are only two years in the past 20 - and really the past 60 - that are worse than Riley's two years - and they were both by a coach who didn't get much time and is widely regarded as running the program into the ground.

So I don't think there can be much argument that the product on the field has been worse than the several years before he got here.

Now, that doesn't mean there isn't reason for optimism. But it's pretty interesting that "optimism" has many people thinking 7 or 8 wins......

 
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I see some people predicting 7 or 8 wins.

But I don't think they're optimists.

I see some people who think Riley recruiting for a Riley scheme might take a couple more seasons to pay off.

Is that making excuses, or being realistic and optimistic at the same time?

We'll know more in a couple seasons.

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
People weren't satisfied with Bo Pelini's 9 win seasons.

They weren't satisfied with Mike Riley's 9 win season, either.

Nothing wrong with that. You can be patient without being satisfied. They kind of go together. Bo got 7 seasons. Mike is gearing up for year three.

I think there's reason for optimism. We're already acting upset about this 7-5 season that hasn't been played yet.
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Bo never won fewer than 9 games though and Riley's best season at Nebraska matches Bo's worst seasons. I really hope he can turn the corner, but saying that he deserves time because we gave Bo time ignores the reality of the 2015 season.

I'm excited about the recruits we're getting, but if what actually do on the field regresses every season at some point you need to stop pointing to recruits and saying next year will be better. Riley has at least 2 more years, but if 2017 is a 7 win season and 2018 isn't at least a 10 win season we can't keep talking about ceilings. We need to find a new coach.

 
saunders45 said:
Here's a quick and dirty comparison since we joined the B1G.

2011: @ #7 Wisconsin (31), Northwestern (3), @ Michigan (13), S. Car (17) - Average Loss: 16 PPG

2012: @ #22 UCLA (6), @12 Ohio State (25), Wisconsin (39), #7 Georgia (14) - Average Loss: 21 PPG

2013: #16 UCLA (20), @ Minnesota (11), #14 MSU (13), Iowa (21) - Average Loss: 16.25 PPG

2014: @ #10 MSU (5), @ #22 Wisconsin (25), Minnesota (4), #24 USC (3) - Average Loss: 9.25 PPG

2015: BYU (5), Miami (3), Illinois (1), Wisconsin (2), Northwestern (2), Purdue (10), #3 Iowa (8) - Average Loss: 4.43 PPG

2016: @ #11 Wisconsin (6), @ #6 Ohio State (59), @ Iowa (30), Tennessee (14) - Average 27.25 PPG

Obviously, the OSU debacle last year really throws that number out of wack, so if you were to drop that number in half, it's still about 19.5 PPG.
Click to expand...

2011 Michigan was 28*

 
Landlord of Memorial Stadium said:
saunders45 said:
Here's a quick and dirty comparison since we joined the B1G.

2011: @ #7 Wisconsin (31), Northwestern (3), @ Michigan (13), S. Car (17) - Average Loss: 16 PPG

2012: @ #22 UCLA (6), @12 Ohio State (25), Wisconsin (39), #7 Georgia (14) - Average Loss: 21 PPG

2013: #16 UCLA (20), @ Minnesota (11), #14 MSU (13), Iowa (21) - Average Loss: 16.25 PPG

2014: @ #10 MSU (5), @ #22 Wisconsin (25), Minnesota (4), #24 USC (3) - Average Loss: 9.25 PPG

2015: BYU (5), Miami (3), Illinois (1), Wisconsin (2), Northwestern (2), Purdue (10), #3 Iowa (8) - Average Loss: 4.43 PPG

2016: @ #11 Wisconsin (6), @ #6 Ohio State (59), @ Iowa (30), Tennessee (14) - Average 27.25 PPG

Obviously, the OSU debacle last year really throws that number out of wack, so if you were to drop that number in half, it's still about 19.5 PPG.
Click to expand...

2011 Michigan was 28*
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Thanks, fixed! I don't know how I screwed that up.

 
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