ColoradoHusk
Heisman Trophy Winner
Roy Helu was a home run threat in the sense that he had a great talent of breaking long runs for TD.
Huskers Look to Revive Running Game
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
Comish
All-Conference
Making Chimichangas
Banned
Okay, yes Helu was definitely a homerun threat. I guess my overall point/thought is, for a school like Nebraska, great RBs seem to be too few and far between. Hopefully with Coach Frost and this staff that changes.
I think AA could be described as above. He had the crazy jump cut without losing speed. Behind a better OL who knows. Without him, we lost to McNeese St....He's pretty close to our last one IMO. Even though the W-L doesnt equate, we had some great ones in Roy, Rex and Helu....
Rushing YPC in terms of being a metric or a goal to achieve is kind of interesting. In this context, it's not a very useful stat.
First is the nature of yards per carry. For a given balanced dataset, say the NFL or maybe the Big Ten, something with relatively comparable teams, the median rush is very similar across a huge spectrum of players. What that means is that their average yards per carry or mean, is heavily influenced by long rushes. So, what we are really talking about is getting the long rushes. When we look at Nebraska's woeful yards per carry, this is primarily what we are looking at. When we are comparing ypc in this context what we are really doing is magnifying the importance of a few carries, therefore creating noise in the data.
The other problem with yards per carry is that success in rushing the ball is often context sensitive. We are trying to convert a 3rd and 1 or goal line scenario or killing the clock or any number of other situations where we have a specific target in mind. You could have a back that only averaged 4 ypc and yet was very important to the success of the team.
What I want to see is the return of the big play alongside an effective running game. Popping a 50 yarder but our average outside of that is 2 ypc is not very effective over the entire course of the game. Can it get first downs when needed. Can it be effective in the red zone. Can it take advantage of weaknesses in the defense. A running game in this offense is designed to be a constant threat to dictate all over the field. Play two deep safeties, we may run it. Man up that slot with your OLB, we may run it. Try looping your tackles, we may run it.
First is the nature of yards per carry. For a given balanced dataset, say the NFL or maybe the Big Ten, something with relatively comparable teams, the median rush is very similar across a huge spectrum of players. What that means is that their average yards per carry or mean, is heavily influenced by long rushes. So, what we are really talking about is getting the long rushes. When we look at Nebraska's woeful yards per carry, this is primarily what we are looking at. When we are comparing ypc in this context what we are really doing is magnifying the importance of a few carries, therefore creating noise in the data.
The other problem with yards per carry is that success in rushing the ball is often context sensitive. We are trying to convert a 3rd and 1 or goal line scenario or killing the clock or any number of other situations where we have a specific target in mind. You could have a back that only averaged 4 ypc and yet was very important to the success of the team.
What I want to see is the return of the big play alongside an effective running game. Popping a 50 yarder but our average outside of that is 2 ypc is not very effective over the entire course of the game. Can it get first downs when needed. Can it be effective in the red zone. Can it take advantage of weaknesses in the defense. A running game in this offense is designed to be a constant threat to dictate all over the field. Play two deep safeties, we may run it. Man up that slot with your OLB, we may run it. Try looping your tackles, we may run it.
RedDenver
Heisman Trophy Winner
You may be right. I'm just advising some caution (or maybe "awareness" would be a better term).
OTOH, the B1G has much better defenses than the AAC and the 2018 schedule looks tough (at least on paper). Basically, a lackluster running game the first season may not indicate a lackluster running game the next season.
It has different defenses, that play to different strengths. I think in general the top Big Ten defenses are actually pretty good, but I don't trust their numbers because the bottom half dozen offenses are legitimately dreadful.
Michigan, for instance, over pursues everything. Run everything at them, they make the tackle. Run misdirection, like Penn State did, gives them fits. Wisconsin spent the whole game against Michigan running into that wall until they saw some archive footage that showed how to run an end around.
Wisconsin loves to keep their linebackers in the game at all times. Teams with no creativity in their offense, like Michigan and Iowa, they excel against. Teams that play sideline to sideline, have more QB runs, like Ohio St and Miami, caused them more problems.
In general, I think Frost's offense is set up for success against the better Big Ten defenses.
Danimal
All-Conference
During the Solich and Calahan era our rb's went down hill some. We had quality guys under Bo though, AA and Rex might not have had "holy crap!" speed but they were still first-rate backs. Riley era was the worst, we had three 4* rb's looking totally average and fourth that did look good we ran into the ground despite knowing his knees were crap. Ya hopefully with this regime we do bring back the great Nebraska backs. In terms of homerun threats I do think the nature of this offense will attract more of those guys.
Treand3
All-Conference
Totally agree here. For instance, Wisconsin and Michigan, the number 2 and 3 ranked teams in total defense only faced two top 30 offenses a piece. Wisconsin played # 9 FAU and # 7 Ohio State. Michigan played #18 Penn State and OSU as well. Michigan State and Ohio State (#6 and #7 in total defense respectively) played 3 in the top 30 offenses. OSU: #1 Oklahoma, #10 USC and #18 PSU. For MSU: OSU, PSU and Notre Dame. The next highest B1G team in total offenses were Wisconsin at 44 and Northwestern at 50.
It's also interesting you brought up Michigan and how they play defense. During the telecast of UCF's game with the Wolverines, the commentator mentioned how Frost felt his scheme could have success against a defense like Michigan's, but didn't have the horses.
Wisconsin prefers to play in a box and the only time they had issues is when teams were able to put their safeties and LBs in space, ala sideline to sideline incorporating the QB run game.
Apologies if this post isn't the clearest (mobile posting), but I too like the possibilities Frost's offense has in the B1G.
Auburn (#15 in total defense) faced 5 top 30 offenses: #4 UCF, #15 Missouri, #21 Ole Miss, #25 Bama and #29 Georgia FWIW.
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RedDenver
Heisman Trophy Winner
RedDenver
Heisman Trophy Winner
Scarlet Overkill
All-Conference
Well, not sure i agree about lack of horses, considering that over 60 guys were on both the winless and the undefeated teams.
I assume (though haven't looked it up) the majority of UCF's "national championship" team this last year was made up of guys who were on the roster during Frost's first year. I think that could be an encouraging sign for Nebraska that Frost may be able to shape/mold the current talent to fit the team's needs and goals.