I Don't Care About Riley's "System" - It will never work!

[Guy Chamberlin]

I posted in another thread the stats on running percentage for the national champs during the BCS era. Two of those teams were a 50/50 split in run pass. Oklahoma and FSU. All of the rest were around a 60/40 run/pass ratio. So the numbers point to a team that can do both but their bread and butter is running the ball. So if the goal is winning a national championship wouldn't you want to model your team on the model?

Tim Beck typically ran a 60/40 run/pass split and was accused of being "pass happy"

All these 50/50 and 60/40 national champions run offenses that horrify Nebraska traditionalists, but the main difference is that Nebraska quarterbacks haven't been able to run these offenses quite as effeciently and our porous defense often forces our offense to play out of a hole. Which changes the ratio as well.

I think you'll find a lot of successful teams run closer to a 50/50 split for the first half or three quarters, then run the clock out with a comfortable lead.

Tom Osborne teams tended to pass more in close games against stingier defenses, too.

I love having Jordan Westerkamp, Demornay Pierson-El and Stanly Morgan Jr. on my team. I hope they get every chance given the running backs. It's both fun to watch and smart football.

 

[Kiyoat Husker]

I posted in another thread the stats on running percentage for the national champs during the BCS era. Two of those teams were a 50/50 split in run pass. Oklahoma and FSU. All of the rest were around a 60/40 run/pass ratio. So the numbers point to a team that can do both but their bread and butter is running the ball. So if the goal is winning a national championship wouldn't you want to model your team on the model?

Are you talking yards, or attempts? Here is what I posted earlier in this thread. I was only including champs from the last 15 years that had around 50% OR MORE passing attempts:

2000 Oklahoma 39/36 = 52% pass

2001 Miami 35/26 = 57% pass

2004 USC 35/28 = 56% pass

2005 Texas 40/36 = 53% pass

2006 Florida 37/43 = 46% pass

2011 Alabama 34/35 = 49% pass

2013 Florida State 35/31 = 53% pass

not to argue your point, (I think we are saying the same thing) but Miami and USC had the highest pass percentages, and 7 out of 15 years the winner was at around 50/50 (or more) passing

Edit: Oh, I see. You meant on the season stats. I was looking at the champ game. Well, that makes Guy's above comment more valid. In the champ game they would be less likely to have an opportunity to ice the game running it in the 3rd or 4rd quarter.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Here's Nebraska's run/pass ratio so far this season.

It's not like we've gone nuts. We're also averaging about 15 more plays a game over last year.

R/P

37/41

37/38

32/45

39/35

45/32

37/28

 

[Enhance]

Here's Nebraska's run/pass ratio so far this season.

It's not like we've gone nuts. We're also averaging about 15 more plays a game over last year.

R/P

37/41

37/38

32/45

39/35

45/32

37/28

Pretty balanced, which I personally believe can work at a place like Nebraska. We don't have to run the ball 60-65 percent of the time or more to win here, IMHO. But, I do heartily believe we need an effective and powerful rushing attack that can get yards when it needs to.

That said, I would argue our passing game right now is what's holding the offense back a bit more. TA is completing and abysmal number of throws, for a variety of reasons, and that's killing just about everything we want to do. That doesn't mean passing can't work here in a balanced attack, but right now it's just not clicking and this offense needs it to.

 

[Red Five]

Here's Nebraska's run/pass ratio so far this season.

It's not like we've gone nuts. We're also averaging about 15 more plays a game over last year.

R/P

37/41

37/38

32/45

39/35

45/32

37/28

Really? We're running more plays this year? With a huddle offense? That seems odd.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

The minute Bo left, Beck ran 30 more plays in the Holiday Bowl than the team had averaged all season.

That was running more of a hurry-up offense as opposed to a Armstrong-Staring-At-The-Sidelines-While-All-The-Players-Stand-Around offense.

We're not in the hurry-up this year, but apparently it's brisker than before.

Could be more sustained drives than last year, or a bit more passing. Haven't looked into it that far.

 

[Polarhusker]

Realistically, Riley will need to a Connor Cook/Matthew Stafford type if we're gonna throw so much. I just don't see that kid coming to Lincoln.

Patrick O'Brien doesn't fit that mold? Or is he not coming to Lincoln?

Could be. We've just had too many misfires with the Harrison Becks and even Sam Kellers of the world. I hope he's every bit as good as everyone says he his.

You do realize that Riley didn't recruit any of those so called QB's and not every kid that's signed will work out. you roll the dice.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I don't think Zac Taylor or Joe Ganz were high on anyone's list, but I think a QB of their caliber would make a huge difference running this offense right now.

I also think if Joe Ganz had another year of eligibility, that 2009 Husker team ends the season in the Top Ten and Bo Pelini is still here.

 

[Enhance]

Could be more sustained drives than last year, or a bit more passing. Haven't looked into it that far.

I'm curious, too. I'd be shocked if it was more sustained drives. Our 3rd down conversion percentage has been abysmal this year, particularly in the last two games.

Could it be because we're extending the game time and having more drive opportunities? These games are lasting much longer than they have in recent years and I think it's been because of all the passing, and stoppages of the clock, we've been having. We've had some games go almost four hours, whereas last year, a lot of our games wrapped up between 3 and 3 1/2 hours.

 

[BRV920]

Another thing to keep in mind when you look at all those National Championship teams is their location. Pretty much all of them are warm weather schools. I'd be curious to know what MSU and ODU run/pass ratio's have been the last 3 years. I know in 02 when OSU won they ran the ball 68% of the time. Not sure what is was last year but if we are going to compare teams run/pass ratio's these would be the teams I'm interested in knowing about.

 

[Igetbored216]

You do realize that pro football players are the top 1% of college football players. How about naming a Midwest college team that has won anything being a pass first offense.

True. The La. Techs and Hawaii's and BYUs and Texas Techs have put up crazy passing numbers over the years, and it generally lands them in lower-tier bowl games. They can put up 600 yards of total offense and still lose.

Baylor and TCU may prove the exception.

But I'm still having trouble with the phrase "pass first offense."

As long as we're talking college football, find me a Top Ten team that does not pass the ball often and well. I guarantee you they also run the ball well.

What they don't really do is fixate on whether they are a "run first" or "pass first" offense. They generally do both well, and will do one more often if the opposing defense is exploitable. Last year we wanted to be run-first Wisconsin. This year Joel Stave through the ball 50 times against Nebraska.

The best teams in college football will pass on first down on one series. Run the ball on first down in the next series. A third and one can go either way.

Sometimes I think Nebraska fans are the only people having this conversation.

I'm going to assume you haven't seen Baylor play much. Baylor runs. A lot. They are currently #2 in rushing yards per game and have a R/P ratio of 243/156.

 

[KingBlank]

I really dont' agree with that. There is no right or wrong way to play football nor is there a wimpy way and a strong way.

You can win titles with an Air Raid and you can win titles with a smash mouth attack. Either can be quite effective.

Any system can work if you have the right coaching and the right athletes for the system.

If this 2-4 start is just a hiccup and Riley makes this system work then I'm all for it. If in the end we don't succeed then I blame the coaching for not adapting the system to the athletes we have.

Any system can work in the right conditions.

Your all for being 2-4? Why is it ok to through away a season? The kids don't deserve that at all

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

You do realize that pro football players are the top 1% of college football players. How about naming a Midwest college team that has won anything being a pass first offense.

True. The La. Techs and Hawaii's and BYUs and Texas Techs have put up crazy passing numbers over the years, and it generally lands them in lower-tier bowl games. They can put up 600 yards of total offense and still lose.

Baylor and TCU may prove the exception.

But I'm still having trouble with the phrase "pass first offense."

As long as we're talking college football, find me a Top Ten team that does not pass the ball often and well. I guarantee you they also run the ball well.

What they don't really do is fixate on whether they are a "run first" or "pass first" offense. They generally do both well, and will do one more often if the opposing defense is exploitable. Last year we wanted to be run-first Wisconsin. This year Joel Stave through the ball 50 times against Nebraska.

The best teams in college football will pass on first down on one series. Run the ball on first down in the next series. A third and one can go either way.

Sometimes I think Nebraska fans are the only people having this conversation.

I'm going to assume you haven't seen Baylor play much. Baylor runs. A lot. They are currently #2 in rushing yards per game and have a R/P ratio of 243/156.

You are correct, sir. My memories are of Baylor continuing to find QBs who could pass for over 4,000 yards every year, but it looks like the kept rushing for about 200 yards a game, too.

They are simply an offensive machine.

Didn't know they were running the ball more this year.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I really dont' agree with that. There is no right or wrong way to play football nor is there a wimpy way and a strong way.

You can win titles with an Air Raid and you can win titles with a smash mouth attack. Either can be quite effective.

Any system can work if you have the right coaching and the right athletes for the system.

If this 2-4 start is just a hiccup and Riley makes this system work then I'm all for it. If in the end we don't succeed then I blame the coaching for not adapting the system to the athletes we have.

Any system can work in the right conditions.

Your all for being 2-4? Why is it ok to through away a season? The kids don't deserve that at all

Where does anyone suggest they are "for" being 2-4?

 

[Igetbored216]

You are correct, sir. My memories are of Baylor continuing to find QBs who could pass for over 4,000 yards every year, but it looks like the kept rushing for about 200 yards a game, too.

They are simply an offensive machine.

Didn't know they were running the ball more this year.

Yeah, they have had similar R/P ratios the last couple years prior to this. It's the run that really sets up the long bomb passes that everyone always sees on the highlights. You rarely see any of their good runs they have. I would take their RB in a heartbeat, and their whole offensive system really.

That said, I'm definitely not ready to give up on Riley's system. Of course it's not working now. Tommy isn't the type of QB that would make this system hum. O'Brien is. Don't be surprised if he starts as a true freshman. That being said, I guess I'm most disappointed this season because we were told by both Riley and Langsdorf that they would cater their offensive strategy based on their personnel. They clearly have not done this. If they let Tommy loose and let him use his legs, we would not be looking at 2-4 and we would have a really good chance at winning the remaining six games.