In-State Talent - or Lack Thereof

[Mavric]

Found this and posted it in the Nebraska HS Players thread but the more I looked at it, the more I thought it could use it's own thread:

NebraskaHSFootball ‏@NebHSFootball 2h2 hours ago
186 players from Nebraska high schools signed a LOI today. Who and where? http://nebraskahsfootball.com/update-2015-recruiting-notebook-player-signings/ … #nebpreps


At first glance, that looks like a really good number of kids going on to the next level. And it is.

But when you look a little closer, I think it's pretty telling about the amount of talent in the state. And why it's probably not accurate to complain too much about the Huskers not offering a lot of in-state guys.

This was the fist year in several (5?) that the Huskers took a recruit out of OPS, and they got two (Neal and Decker). That is pretty telling in and of itself. If there isn't much talent coming out of by far the biggest district in the state, we're really behind the eight ball. By my count - someone correct me if I'm wrong - the Metro (OPS, Papillion-LaVista, Millard, Bellevue and Prep) produced exactly three Division I signees this year. Not Power 5. Not even just FBS. All of Division I. Three. The Huskers got two and CJ Johnson went to Wyoming.

Lincoln produced none. No one with a D-1 scholarship.

To be fair, a couple guys passed up an FCS offer to walk on for the Huskers, but still. That's pretty much a complete lack of talent in by far the two biggest cities in the state. That is roughly 44% of the total high school enrollment in the state - and the ones that overall have the most access to programs and coaching - that produced three D-1 prospects.

So I don't think blaming coaches for not having enough interest in the state is really that valid. It's not just Nebraska that's passing on these guys. KState, Iowa, Iowa State and Kansas all grab Nebraska kids on a regular basis and all have lower standards than the Huskers. But they're still passing.

I definitely hope the new staff looks as hard as they can at local kids. But it's not going to surprise me if the results are any different than they have been.

 

[strigori]

Part of the issue is the spring sports coaches have blocked football from running a spring practice session like so many other states do. Benning has talked about this more than once on his show, where there are so many coaching politics that has thus far prevented it. The University needs to lean on the NSAA to get the ball rolling. Do spring football, help the Huskers. If this actually got front and central in people's minds in this state, I think we would have spring football pretty fast. But it really does not get talked about enough.

 

[True2tRA]

I still believe there is some talent overlooked in this state.

Is it a coincidence that the year our staff gave the in-state players a bit more of a look, we see an increase in offers? Whether that be scholarship or walk-ons. Maybe an increase in attention in the state would result in a few more finds. Of course, that can be a chicken and egg discussion. As in, is the lack of attention due to lack of talent, or is the "lack of talent" a result of minimal attention?

I hate to tie talent directly to whether a kid was discovered by coaches or not. Just the same as I don't tie a kids talent to these star ratings a lot of you buy into. These experts miss on these recruits all the time. All the time. It's not hard for me to believe that there are more Nebraska kids that are missed on as well. Still, the number probably isn't that dramatic.

As I said, I think once the level of attention to in-state kids increases, the number of kids receiving offers will increase. The previous staff clearly didn't show a lot of interest. This new staff clearly does. That's a good thing. I want to see the best players in this state stay in this state.

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

By my count - someone correct me if I'm wrong - the Metro (OPS, Papillion-LaVista, Millard, Bellevue and Prep) produced exactly three Division I signees this year. Not Power 5. Not even just FBS. All of Division I. Three. The Huskers got two and CJ Johnson went to Wyoming.

There were five, the three you mentioned plus Youhanna Ghaifan (Wyoming) and Adam Holtorf (Kansas St).
Your general principle is correct. Nebraska is not a recruiting hotbed of elite, college-ready talent. There are some that get overlooked because they are raw or projects, and the coaches need to be able to have a specific development plan for those kids (I would put Daishon Neal in that category).

Your observation is the reason why we need to consider Colorado, Kansas, and the Dakotas as part of our backyard. These are all border states that do not have elite Division-I football programs and, like Nebraska, do not over produce elite-level talent. However, if you pool the talent for these five states, Nebraska will have 4-7 prospects each year worth recruiting.

 

[wiuhusker]

By my count - someone correct me if I'm wrong - the Metro (OPS, Papillion-LaVista, Millard, Bellevue and Prep) produced exactly three Division I signees this year. Not Power 5. Not even just FBS. All of Division I. Three. The Huskers got two and CJ Johnson went to Wyoming.

There were five, the three you mentioned plus Youhanna Ghaifan (Wyoming) and Adam Holtorf (Kansas St).
Your general principle is correct. Nebraska is not a recruiting hotbed of elite, college-ready talent. There are some that get overlooked because they are raw or projects, and the coaches need to be able to have a specific development plan for those kids (I would put Daishon Neal in that category).

Your observation is the reason why we need to consider Colorado, Kansas, and the Dakotas as part of our backyard. These are all border states that do not have elite Division-I football programs and, like Nebraska, do not over produce elite-level talent. However, if you pool the talent for these five states, Nebraska will have 4-7 prospects each year worth recruiting.

The other 2 you mentioned aren't OPS/Metro athletes which is why he didn't count them.

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

By my count - someone correct me if I'm wrong - the Metro (OPS, Papillion-LaVista, Millard, Bellevue and Prep) produced exactly three Division I signees this year. Not Power 5. Not even just FBS. All of Division I. Three. The Huskers got two and CJ Johnson went to Wyoming.

There were five, the three you mentioned plus Youhanna Ghaifan (Wyoming) and Adam Holtorf (Kansas St).
Your general principle is correct. Nebraska is not a recruiting hotbed of elite, college-ready talent. There are some that get overlooked because they are raw or projects, and the coaches need to be able to have a specific development plan for those kids (I would put Daishon Neal in that category).

Your observation is the reason why we need to consider Colorado, Kansas, and the Dakotas as part of our backyard. These are all border states that do not have elite Division-I football programs and, like Nebraska, do not over produce elite-level talent. However, if you pool the talent for these five states, Nebraska will have 4-7 prospects each year worth recruiting.

The other 2 you mentioned aren't OPS/Metro athletes which is why he didn't count them.

Good call. Holtorf is from Seward and Ghaifan from Grand Island.

 

[Danny Bateman]

I still believe there is some talent overlooked in this state.

Is it a coincidence that the year our staff gave the in-state players a bit more of a look, we see an increase in offers? Whether that be scholarship or walk-ons. Maybe an increase in attention in the state would result in a few more finds. Of course, that can be a chicken and egg discussion. As in, is the lack of attention due to lack of talent, or is the "lack of talent" a result of minimal attention?

I hate to tie talent directly to whether a kid was discovered by coaches or not. Just the same as I don't tie a kids talent to these star ratings a lot of you buy into. These experts miss on these recruits all the time. All the time. It's not hard for me to believe that there are more Nebraska kids that are missed on as well. Still, the number probably isn't that dramatic.

As I said, I think once the level of attention to in-state kids increases, the number of kids receiving offers will increase. The previous staff clearly didn't show a lot of interest. This new staff clearly does. That's a good thing. I want to see the best players in this state stay in this state.

I think the chicken-egg argument you bring up is a legit discussion. But I'd say I lean more toward the minimal attention due to lack of talent.
Anecdotally, off the top of my head, I do not remember many legitimate D1 caliber recruits that wind up leaving the state. Generally any of those guys DO get funneled to Lincoln, so I'd say we're doing a good job with what talent there is. There are a few exceptions to the rule, but none of them have been huge misses so far:

*Mike Shoff (2011) was a. Cambridge OL many wanted offered... Never was. Wound up at SDSU, redshirted, started 9 games last year (injured other games).

*Drew Ott (2011) from the same class was a DE from Giltner that never got an offer and wound up at Iowa. Starts for them and is a legit cog on their D. He's probably the biggest miss of this group.

*Tay Bender (2012) was a dual threat out of Lincoln that got attention from Oregon but eventually wound up at KSU. Subsequently left, wound up at IWCC, and signed this week with Southeast Mo State

*Harrison Phillips (2014)- Omaha DE. Many were upset we passed. Bo didn't like his fit for our D. Played sparingly as a TrFr this year at Stanford.

*Calvin Strong (2015)- We'll see how he does at USD. Lack of offer was about off field stuff, not lack of talent.

Overall, I'd say we've done very well. Only 2 of these 5 are from the Metro area. Bo whiffed on some DEs due to perceived poor fit, but we've still soaked up the vast majority of talent in the state.

 

[QMany]

Is it a coincidence that the year our staff gave the in-state players a bit more of a look, we see an increase in offers?

What have been the number offered in the past 5-10 years?

 

[True2tRA]

Is it a coincidence that the year our staff gave the in-state players a bit more of a look, we see an increase in offers?

What have been the number offered in the past 5-10 years?

2012 - 1 offer. Sam Cotton. Committed.

2013 - 1 offer. Josh Banderas. Committed.

2014 - 3 offers. Foster, Stoltenberg, and Gifford. All committed.

2015 - 2 offers. Daishon Neal and Decker. Both committed.

2016 - Offered Jared Bubak.

So I stand corrected.

In 2014 they had 3 in state offers from the previous staff unlike the couple years prior.

You could consider Neal and Decker as Pelini's recruits too, but really if they were committed to Pelini, they'd be at Youngstown. So I consider them Husker recruits.

The new staff has matched the previous staffs 2013 and 2014 in state offer totals already with an offer to Bubak in the 2016 class, and surpassed them with 2 offers in the 2015 class.

When you consider the fact that in 2012 there were 37 in state prospects listed by Scout.com and only 1 received an offer, that's a bit questionable. 2013 there were 25 listed, only 1 received an offer. 2014, 27 listed and 3 got offers.

2015 there was only 15 listed, we got 2 of them. Thats statistically quite a bit better.

We also can't pretend there are high school coaches in the state asking for an increased focus on in-state recruiting just for the hell of it. Theres a reason they feel it may have been neglected. I'd say they'd know even more about it than we do.

 

[Mavric]

That's quite a stretch the new staff surpassed the old staff's offers when all that is there is guys the old staff offered.

 

[Mavric]

2014 - Harrison Phillips

2011 - David Sutton, Zach Sterup, Ryne Reeves, Daniel Davie

2010 - Andrew Rodriguez, Jake Cotton, Tyler Evans, Bronson Marsh

2009 - CJ Zimmerer, Cole Pensick

2008 - Collins Okafor, Shane Prater, Baker Steinkuhler, tim Blere, Trevor Robinson, Sean Fisher, Micah Kreikemeier, Shaun Prater, John Levorson

2007 - Niles Paul, Harland Gunn, Mike Caputo, Jared Crick

2006 - DJ Jones, Ricky Henry, Ben Martin, Tony Purvis, Corey Young

2005 - Derek Meyer, Zach Potter, Jeff Souder, Robert Rands

2004 - Allan Evridge, Brandon Gunn, Mike Huff, Ty Steinkuhler, Andy Christensen, Clayton Sievers, Cortney Grixby, Jake Galusha

Used 247's lists

 

[Mavric]

Now look at those older lists - where there were obviously more offers, and see if that was legit or there were too many.

 

[Atbone95]

Played against Yohanna in high school. Watched him as a sophomore pick up a senior (literally picked him up), threw him on his back, and went and caught a pass. Wish the staff would have given him more of a look.

 

[True2tRA]

Now look at those older lists - where there were obviously more offers, and see if that was legit or there were too many.

I saw the older lists but the further back you go it began to not support my theory very well so I only went back 3-4 years where they only offered 1 in state player in back to back seasons.
There's no true science to it. There's hit and misses all over the place. We've definitely hit and missed on some in state guys, no doubt about it. I just like seeing the in state kids get a shot. I guess it's mostly just a personal feeling of mine.

I may have overstated the lack of in state recruiting for some of those seasons under Bo. They did an alright job in some of the prior years you mentioned.

I also pointed out though, and I think it's an interesting aspect that I can't explain, but the number of prospects in the state (according to Scout.com) seemed to just cut in half this past year. It looked like it averaged around 30 or so for a long time, then just dropped to 15. They only have 5 listed for 2016?

Maybe the sting of losing guys like Phillips, Emanuel, Urzendowski, Johnson, or Ott kind of add a bit of sting to my position on the poor in state recruiting as well. Those guys should be Huskers.

 

[Mavric]

I also pointed out though, and I think it's an interesting aspect that I can't explain, but the number of prospects in the state (according to Scout.com) seemed to just cut in half this past year. It looked like it averaged around 30 or so for a long time, then just dropped to 15. They only have 5 listed for 2016?

Perhaps the explaination is there just isn't as much talent in the state. The scouting services are seeing it. Coaches at other programs are seeing it. Basically the only reason not to recognize it is if you don't want it to be true (no pun intended).