In-State Talent vs. Out-State Talent

[Nebfanatic]

Don't we have Austin Allen and Broc Bando committed for the class of '17? Also have 2 in state commits for the 2018 recruiting class so I wouldn't exactly say we are hemorrhaging in state talent

 

[84HuskerLaw]

While we miss a guy or two each who go elsewhere and turn out to be pretty good players, there are more of these relatively low rated 'unknowns' that go the lower tier programs and do 'ok' at that level but would have most likely languished on the 3rd and 4th strings their entire time here, seeing only brief action in kicking games or that last 7 snaps of 'decided' games.

The real interesting question is Where are the legitimate players that Nebraska used to bring in like all the RBs from Omaha, for example? Who was the most recent I back from Nebraska that became the starting RB ala Calvin Jones, Keith Jones, Benning, Clinton Childs, Gayle Sayers, etc etc etc. It seems to me we had a run of a couple decades of always having a couple excellent ball carriers from Nebraska on the depth charts. Seems like it stopped early on in Frank's reign and all but disappeared. Our FBs were always from Columbus or Gretna or Grand Island or Brainard or the Mackovica boys, etc. ?

My guess would be that prior to 2004, a typical recruiting class would have 20 scholarships and another 20 or so walk ons. Of those numbers, maybe 4 or 5 scholarships to Nebraska and nearby kids and about 17 walk ons from the States of Nebraska, Kansas, Dakotas and Iowa. (Mostly Neb).

I think CM is right to say that Nebraska kids are kind of overlooked and not even seriously considered by the 'rating and recruiting outfits'. Let's face it, they don't spend the time and money to travel on the ground in flyover country to check seriously a handful of guys when they can grade hundres in other places in the same time/cost. Thus, Nebraska players probably go unnoticed.

 

[cm husker]

A number of the running backs you mentioned above (Benning and Childs, for easy examples), would have likely "languished" as backups at other schools. Many of those Omaha guys were sprinters with good, but not great, ball carrying skills. Through a combination of great position coaching and a system that was wholly designed to outnumber defenses at the point of attack, these guys were given an opportunity to show off great speed - but they weren't really asked to do the type of running we ask of RBs today (let alone pass pro).

That was part of the awesomeness of that system.

 

[cm husker]

The other people in this thread have nailed it when they point out that recruitnik writers are not journalists. They are far from it. They aren't even scouts. For example, when you look at Rivals writers, and notably all of their leadership, few of them even played football, let alone at a college level. None of them are former coaches or scouts at any type of significant level. Why? Because they are paid almost nothing and people who know how to truly scout and recruit are being paid to do so professionally.

They are marketers peddling a product. Totally fine, but let's be transparent about that, because it leads to the second point noted above: it simply doesn't make economic sense to invest time and other resources into carefully scouting and grading kids from small media markets. If someone is off the charts, of course they'll be recognized. And mainly, they will try to at least assign a rating to the top 10 to 15 kids from a state every year. But the information that's based on is extremely limited.

NU used to regularly recruit 5+ Nebraska kids a year. Either that old system made otherwise average athletes more successful than they would have been or there are a lot of "under appreciated" Nebraska kids being missed out on recently (and I don't limit this to Riley - it goes back aways).

Maybe it's both.

 

[TonyStalloni]

I understand your frustration seeing Nebraska born and raised kids go to other states to play football. I chomped at the bit many times watching Ott play at Iowa when he was ours for the taking. As it turned out the kid who took his schollie was kicked off the team I think his first year here. I'm willing to give Riley a pass for a few years till he and the staff can make inroads with high school coaches. Quite a few bridges were burned by the last staff.

 

[husker98]

Star ratings are worthless. If you met and talk to the guys who compile and rate kids on these sites you would have little or no faith in them.

Not to say they don't get it right, but they get it wrong more often then not. Prince amukamara, or maybe it was eric hagg its been to long, was a one star when he committed here and ended up drafted an playing in the NFL. Patrick O'brien wasn't a 4* until he went on their special camp tour. Gebbia's rating has suffered because he hasn't played their camp game.

Andy Janovich is the poster boy for this argument. Rural Nebraska kid gets no spotlight or attention and thus no stars.

This program was built on these kids like Janovich. And its disturbing to me that Craig Bohl is next door using that formula to great success in Laramie with a fraction of our resources. I'm increasingly beginning to look at our future games with them with worry because their team is filling up with spurned Nebraska kids looking to take their shot at us.

That said we have to go out and get elite talent like this staff has been doing or we won't win the conference regularly, let alone another national title. Wisconsin fell into that rut under Alverez and Bielema and is still in it to this day. Just enough talent to compete at the top end, but not enough to win it all.

I don't envy the staff position on this issue, don't take kids like this and your chastised for it. Don't snag enough big time talent, and you pestered about it all year. Good luck finding any middle ground.

Both Prince and Hagg were 3* players coming out of HS.

Nebraska wasn't built on the likes of Jano. It was a mixture of Nebraska kids and kids from other places that fit into what we were doing.

One of them was a three star when he committed, I think it was hagg, but the other was a two or one star. I remember because I read it and a family member said they would suck a never play. I rubbed it in his face all though 2009 and the year they got drafted.

Your second sentence basically just confirmed what I was saying......... despite denying it. It was a mixture yes, not to talk away non Nebraska kids contributions, but when you go back through the championship teams histories you see large numbers of walkons an scholly Nebraska kids who played, the 94 team played 5 walk ons I think and they won against the likes of Warren Sapp and Ray Lewis.

These kids and the state offered guys where the psychological foundation for the team. Many former out of state players for us commented after their playing days on how much of an inspiration and driving force these kids were too the team.

This isn't a solely Nebraska thing either, Bill Snyder has used the same formula to build and maintain Kansas State, So did Mangino at KU when they went to the Orange Bowl. And Craig Bohl used large numbers of Dakotas, Minnesota, and Nebraska kids to build his Dynasty in North Dakota.

At each of these teams local kids where the foundation and they built upon that with the elite out of state talent to make National Title winning teams.

Its a balancing act. But local kids are literally the heart and soul of our area's best teams.

 

[cm husker]

I'll point out that I mainly agree with 98, but it's worth noting that no one is arguing that kids from NE are imbued with a special work ethic that's better than kids from a 90--- zip code.

It's more an issue of proximity to home helping kids settle in and develop and stick in the program that makes local talent so important to retain.

 

[Mavric]

Yeah, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are stupid for going after all those guys that the know-nothing recruiting services have rated as five stars. Definitely should be going after a lot more two-stars imo.

 

[Mavric]

NU used to regularly recruit 5+ Nebraska kids a year. Either that old system made otherwise average athletes more successful than they would have been or there are a lot of "under appreciated" Nebraska kids being missed out on recently (and I don't limit this to Riley - it goes back aways).

Maybe it's both.

And the number of quality in state recruits has to be constant over time?

NU also used to have more scholarships available so could afford to take more chances on in state kids.

What was the last class of Nebraska high school kids that turned out 5+ legitimate Power 5 contributors?

 

[Mavric]

A number of the running backs you mentioned above (Benning and Childs, for easy examples), would have likely "languished" as backups at other schools. Many of those Omaha guys were sprinters with good, but not great, ball carrying skills. Through a combination of great position coaching and a system that was wholly designed to outnumber defenses at the point of attack, these guys were given an opportunity to show off great speed - but they weren't really asked to do the type of running we ask of RBs today (let alone pass pro).

That was part of the awesomeness of that system.

Now you're just making stuff up. By all accounts Childs may have been the best athlete on the team. Would have played almost anywhere.

 

[Mavric]

too bad we don't have any organizations that measure the athletes skills at camps and are able to compare players from across the country based on those tests

Those organizations are mainly garbage when it comes to evaluating kids from smaller markets. Even though they have tried to pretend that they aren't.

What evidence do you have of this?

I'll send you a peer reviewed paper.

Still waiting on this and the other links you claim you have....

 

[Landlord]

my favorite part of this thread is when cm gets sassy and deflective when asked to provide substance for a baseless accusation

 

[cm husker]

too bad we don't have any organizations that measure the athletes skills at camps and are able to compare players from across the country based on those tests

Those organizations are mainly garbage when it comes to evaluating kids from smaller markets. Even though they have tried to pretend that they aren't.

What evidence do you have of this?

I'll send you a peer reviewed paper.

Still waiting on this and the other links you claim you have....

They are still awaiting peer review.

But in the mean time, NE has produced the following DI recruits:

2017 - 6 have accepted DIA offers so far, 1 has committed to NU

2016 - 6 produced, 2 committed to NU Guys who got away to P5 schools include Fant, Bubak and Lenners (NU took Stoll)

2015 - 5 produced, 2 committed to NU Guys who got away to P5 schools include Holtorf (NU took Davis twins that year)

2014 - 4 produced, 3 committed to NU Guys who got away to P5 schools include Phillips (NU took Stolenberg, Wills and King at DE that year)

2013 - 4 produced, 1 committed to NU Guys who got away to P5 schools include Bazata (NU took Collins and Maurice at DT that year)

EDIT FOR MORE DATA POINTS:

2012 - 4 produced, 1 committed to NU

2011 - 8 produced, 4 committed to NU

2010 - 5 produced, 4 committed to NU

2009 - 7 produced, 2 committed to NU

2008 - 10 produced, 6 committed to NU

2007 - 12 produced, 2 committed to NU

2006 - 11 produced, 4 committed to NU

2005 - 8 produced, 3 committed to NU

2004 - 11 produced, 5 committed to NU

2003 - 11 produced, 5 committed to NU

So, in the past three recruiting cycles, NE has produced 17 DIA prospects, and NU has commits from 5 of them.

At 29%, that's down significantly from the last staff's number of 50%.

Callahan's staff landed 33%.

Makes me mad to see how much talented was let go during our worst years as a program in decades.

The interesting component to dig into for me would be the lineman who have gone on to play at FCS or FBS schools other than Nebraska. NU fans consistently complain about a lack of depth on the lines, but it appears that we either don't make an effort or aren't successful in keeping the raw linemen talent within the borders. A guy who is 6'6 and 275, at least on paper, matches up well with almost any OL that we've offered during the past two seasons.

 

[cm husker]

my favorite part of this thread is when cm gets sassy and deflective when asked to provide substance for a baseless accusation

I'm really unclear on what baseless accusation that I've made.

I stated that if we are going to let two thirds of the DIA talent and a couple of other recruits who "look the part" that this state is slated to produce this year go out of state, then we better land a heck of a class this spring to justify that.

I doubt anyone disagrees with that statement.

Personally, I agree with the last poster in that this probably reflects a lack of in roads that this staff has with local coaches at this point. That's not just in terms of the obvious communications lines, but also that they may not have a lot of trust in local coaches recommendations yet - unlike, for example, what they have with the Clausen coach at Calabassas.

RIley has recently emphasized his "two tanks of gas" rule and mentioned that this is a shift in strategy for them. I expect to see an appreciable shift in the future years.

 

[cm husker]

Yeah, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are stupid for going after all those guys that the know-nothing recruiting services have rated as five stars. Definitely should be going after a lot more two-stars imo.

That's a serious logic fail on your part.

Clearly kids who are recruited by Urban and Nick are going to get star bumps.

Urban and Nick will invest the time required to make inroads into Nebraska because they simply don't have to because they have good recruits near to them, even if those recruits are exactly even with a NE high school kid.

And that's exactly the point: because a kid is recruited by a local major school due to myriad reasons related to proximity, he gets a bump and the kid who isn't recruited doesn't. That doesn't mean the kid from the smaller community is less talented.

He's simply less hyped (or didn't travel 600 miles to spend time and money at a SPARQ camp).