So far I've talked about generalities around who's done more against their schedule, who has more talent, but now let's dig into what we can really expect in the game.
NU Passing game vs Mizzou Secondary:
Nebraska: 32nd in the country at 256 yards passing per game
Mizzou: 68th in the country at 218 yards per game allowed
Nebraska had a very nice passing game last year in the top 15 in the nation. They started the year very nicely, and Lee has put up good numbers until the VT game. The VT game was really a pretty bad showing even if we account for dropped balls. 136 yards and 2 int's is hard to justify even if you tack on some yards for dropped balls. Prognosis: Nebraska's passing attack probably lies somewhere between competent and good. It depends on how much better Lee and the receivers can play, and how much they learned.
From what I've seen on here, Nebraska has some nice possession receivers and a good deep threat, but nobody is likely to make all conference.
Mizzou's pass defense was much maligned last year, and was particularly bad at giving up big pass plays. The problem last year was less about athletes than playing assignments, as evidenced by stretches of domination mixed with stretches of incompetence. What a difference a year makes. Under new defensive coordinator Steckel, the Tigers lead the conference in fewest big plays allowed. They faced two dangerous dual threat QBs in Juice Williams and Kapernick, and limited both nicely, but neither is a chip away sort of QB. BG's QB was that kind of player, but it's still BG, so you can only put so much stock in that.
Long story short, Mizzou will try to keep NU from hitting the home run. If they can execute with 5-10 yard passes in between runs consistently enough to move the chains., they'll score 28 or more points. If not, your run game better dominate.
Keys to this phase: Nebraska must execute short to mid range passing game consistently. Odds 45%.
Mizzou must get some pressure on the QB. Odds 65%.
Advantage: Push
Nebraska Running Game vs Mizzou rush defense
Nebraska: 41st rushing attack at 184 ypg
Mizzou: 64th rush defense at 133 ypg
Nebraska's biggest claim to success here is consistency, even against a good defense. The numbers aren't eye popping, but they are good. It remains to be seen how good VT's rush defense is, considering they haven't dominated any opponent in rush except Miami, which has 1 game with over 100 yards rushing. But nonetheless, this is no cupcake you ran on, and it would seem that your offensive line and running backs are to be taken seriously.
Mizzou's run defense was exposed a little bit last week against Nevada, particularly up the middle. They were actually quite stout outside the tackles, but in between, they got 6 yards pretty much every time they ran it until the latter half of the 4th quarter. Not sure why they went away from it really. But credit Mizzou for being able to stall Nevada drives without stacking the box. Or credit Ault for bad playcalling, one of the two.
One thing that gives me hope is that Illinois has a pretty decent rush game, and we held them in check. This combined with the fact that Nevada has a fairly unique rushing attack and some talent in the rushing game lifts some of the sense of doom in this matchup. But it's clear Nebraska has the edge here, the question is how much.
Assuming Nebraska's passing offense is moderately effective, I expect the Nebraska rushing offense to get about 150 yards and 5 yards per carry. If you get a lot more than that then you can probably win with only a weak passing game, but with 150-200 yards, you'll need help to win unless your D dominates. The real danger here for Nebraska is that if you need to rely on the run to win, you can't afford to get behind in the score and panic.
Keys to this phase: Missouri would greatly help its cause to stop NU up the gut. They tend to have good sideline to sideline speed, so it's important to go right at Mizzou. Odds: 35%.
Advantage: Nebraska
Mizzou passing offense vs Nebraska passing defense
Mizzou: 4th, 330 ypg
Nebraska: 31st, 168 ypg allowed
This really the biggest key to the game. Mizzou has had pretty good success passing the ball against a variety of defenses. I've listed the stats before, but to summarize, Gabbert is easily the most successful first time starter out there, and has some of the best stats of any QB not getting Heisman attention. The biggest struggle was against Bowling Green, who dropped 7 and even 8 into coverage, and for a while managed to pressure the QB. Mizzou has been pretty good in pass protection outside of those 20 minutes of football or so, and they've faced some talented DE's and LB's, so I'm not especially worried about protection. You'll get to Gabbert a couple of times, and hurry a couple times more, but it won't be the difference in the game more than likely. But I digress. Mizzou has seen different kinds of coverage and been successful, but it hasn't faced a truly great defense.
Unfortunately for Nebraska, I'm not sure you're that defense from what I've read on the board. The pass rush has not been great or bad, and the secondary hasn't really been tested. However, you have been good in your games, so we don't know what to expect.
Ultimately, Mizzou has too much talent at QB and receiver not win this battle. You simply are not going to shut the passing attack down. Your best bet is to slow it, stall out the drives you can and limit Mizzou to FGs in the red zone.
Key to this phase: Mizzou must execute the passing attack in the red zone and get 7 points. Odds: 55%
Advantage: Mizzou
Mizzou rush offense against Nebraska rush defense
Mizzou: 62nd in nation, 143 ypg
Nebraska: 44th in nation, 113 ypg allowed
This seems like a no brainer for Nebraska, and that's ultimately the way I'll call it. I'm surprised given Nebraska's domination of VT that they haven't had as much success against lesser opponents. Not sure what that means. Mizzou was supposed to have a good rushing attack this year, but had weak outings against Illinois and Nevada, though they overpowered BG and Furman. The only good news here for Mizzou is: a) they have the talent to improve right away if they sort some things out, and B) Illinois and Nevada both sold out to stop the run, stacking the box and daring Mizzou to pass, which of course they did successfully.
Unlike past years, Mizzou has actually stuck with the run when it wasn't working, but even with all these excuses, the 3.8 yards per carry is not good. Ultimately, I think Mizzou is capable of coming out and having a respectable rushing day on Nebraska, perhaps 100 to 150 yards, but I'm not counting on it.
Keys to this phase: Mizzou must find some area on the line to find leverage and contain Suh, and the offensive line needs to open more holes. Odds: 25%.
Advantage: Significant Nebraska advantage
Special Teams:
Punt returns: NU 31st, MU 85th
Opponent punt returns: NU 31st, MU 19th
Kick returns: NU 49th, MU 60th
Opponent kick returns: NU 62th, MU 99th
Punting: NU 64th, MU 14th
Opponent punting: NU 100th, MU Missouri 28th
There doesn't seem to be a clear edge here for either team. Both have strengths and weaknesses, but you don't see any strength on weakness matchups. Both kickers are pretty automatic within 45 yards or so. NU might have 5 yards more range, but honestly how often does that matter?
Key to this phase: Field position. I don't see either team breaking off a huge return for a TD, but in a tight game field position could be key, especially off of kickoff returns. If Nebraska can set up around midfield a few times against Mizzou's poor coverage, that could go a long way to helping the offense. Odds: 55%.
Advantage: Push
Overall:
This looks like a classic lines vs skill players game, and could go either way. However, not all phases of the game are equal, and Mizzou's passing advantage could prove critical.
3 keys to the game for Mizzou:
1. Limit big plays. Make NU earn it. Odds: 60%.
2. Hold Nebraska under 200 yards rushing. Odds: 55%.
3. Keep NU honest with the rush. Just 90 yards should do it. Odds: 45%
3 keys to the game for Nebraska:
1. Get the passing game going. 250 yards passing should be enough. Odds: 40%.
2. Pressure Gabbert without blitzing too often. Odds: 40%.
3. Control the clock. Keep at least 38 minutes of possession: Odds: 50%.
Prediction: Nebraska will control, but not dominate, the lines of scrimmage, and control the clock. They will get 150 to 200 yards rushing and add another 200 passing. Mizzou will force enough 3rd and longs to stall out most drives. Mizzou will move the ball heavily through the air. Nebraska will force negative plays on enough drives to stall them, but not consistently. Mizzou will struggle in the red zone, relying on big plays to score at least half their TDs, and settle for FGs on at least half their trips inside the 20. It will be a close game until the early 4th quarter when Mizzou will pull away.
Factor most likely to sway this prediction in NU's favor: NU DOMINATES the LOS and rushes at will, pressures Gabbert and shuts down the run game.
Factor most likely to sway this prediction in MU's favor: MU minimizes NU's rushing game and gets a rushing game of its own going.
Score: 31-21 Mizzou.
NU Passing game vs Mizzou Secondary:
Nebraska: 32nd in the country at 256 yards passing per game
Mizzou: 68th in the country at 218 yards per game allowed
Nebraska had a very nice passing game last year in the top 15 in the nation. They started the year very nicely, and Lee has put up good numbers until the VT game. The VT game was really a pretty bad showing even if we account for dropped balls. 136 yards and 2 int's is hard to justify even if you tack on some yards for dropped balls. Prognosis: Nebraska's passing attack probably lies somewhere between competent and good. It depends on how much better Lee and the receivers can play, and how much they learned.
From what I've seen on here, Nebraska has some nice possession receivers and a good deep threat, but nobody is likely to make all conference.
Mizzou's pass defense was much maligned last year, and was particularly bad at giving up big pass plays. The problem last year was less about athletes than playing assignments, as evidenced by stretches of domination mixed with stretches of incompetence. What a difference a year makes. Under new defensive coordinator Steckel, the Tigers lead the conference in fewest big plays allowed. They faced two dangerous dual threat QBs in Juice Williams and Kapernick, and limited both nicely, but neither is a chip away sort of QB. BG's QB was that kind of player, but it's still BG, so you can only put so much stock in that.
Long story short, Mizzou will try to keep NU from hitting the home run. If they can execute with 5-10 yard passes in between runs consistently enough to move the chains., they'll score 28 or more points. If not, your run game better dominate.
Keys to this phase: Nebraska must execute short to mid range passing game consistently. Odds 45%.
Mizzou must get some pressure on the QB. Odds 65%.
Advantage: Push
Nebraska Running Game vs Mizzou rush defense
Nebraska: 41st rushing attack at 184 ypg
Mizzou: 64th rush defense at 133 ypg
Nebraska's biggest claim to success here is consistency, even against a good defense. The numbers aren't eye popping, but they are good. It remains to be seen how good VT's rush defense is, considering they haven't dominated any opponent in rush except Miami, which has 1 game with over 100 yards rushing. But nonetheless, this is no cupcake you ran on, and it would seem that your offensive line and running backs are to be taken seriously.
Mizzou's run defense was exposed a little bit last week against Nevada, particularly up the middle. They were actually quite stout outside the tackles, but in between, they got 6 yards pretty much every time they ran it until the latter half of the 4th quarter. Not sure why they went away from it really. But credit Mizzou for being able to stall Nevada drives without stacking the box. Or credit Ault for bad playcalling, one of the two.
One thing that gives me hope is that Illinois has a pretty decent rush game, and we held them in check. This combined with the fact that Nevada has a fairly unique rushing attack and some talent in the rushing game lifts some of the sense of doom in this matchup. But it's clear Nebraska has the edge here, the question is how much.
Assuming Nebraska's passing offense is moderately effective, I expect the Nebraska rushing offense to get about 150 yards and 5 yards per carry. If you get a lot more than that then you can probably win with only a weak passing game, but with 150-200 yards, you'll need help to win unless your D dominates. The real danger here for Nebraska is that if you need to rely on the run to win, you can't afford to get behind in the score and panic.
Keys to this phase: Missouri would greatly help its cause to stop NU up the gut. They tend to have good sideline to sideline speed, so it's important to go right at Mizzou. Odds: 35%.
Advantage: Nebraska
Mizzou passing offense vs Nebraska passing defense
Mizzou: 4th, 330 ypg
Nebraska: 31st, 168 ypg allowed
This really the biggest key to the game. Mizzou has had pretty good success passing the ball against a variety of defenses. I've listed the stats before, but to summarize, Gabbert is easily the most successful first time starter out there, and has some of the best stats of any QB not getting Heisman attention. The biggest struggle was against Bowling Green, who dropped 7 and even 8 into coverage, and for a while managed to pressure the QB. Mizzou has been pretty good in pass protection outside of those 20 minutes of football or so, and they've faced some talented DE's and LB's, so I'm not especially worried about protection. You'll get to Gabbert a couple of times, and hurry a couple times more, but it won't be the difference in the game more than likely. But I digress. Mizzou has seen different kinds of coverage and been successful, but it hasn't faced a truly great defense.
Unfortunately for Nebraska, I'm not sure you're that defense from what I've read on the board. The pass rush has not been great or bad, and the secondary hasn't really been tested. However, you have been good in your games, so we don't know what to expect.
Ultimately, Mizzou has too much talent at QB and receiver not win this battle. You simply are not going to shut the passing attack down. Your best bet is to slow it, stall out the drives you can and limit Mizzou to FGs in the red zone.
Key to this phase: Mizzou must execute the passing attack in the red zone and get 7 points. Odds: 55%
Advantage: Mizzou
Mizzou rush offense against Nebraska rush defense
Mizzou: 62nd in nation, 143 ypg
Nebraska: 44th in nation, 113 ypg allowed
This seems like a no brainer for Nebraska, and that's ultimately the way I'll call it. I'm surprised given Nebraska's domination of VT that they haven't had as much success against lesser opponents. Not sure what that means. Mizzou was supposed to have a good rushing attack this year, but had weak outings against Illinois and Nevada, though they overpowered BG and Furman. The only good news here for Mizzou is: a) they have the talent to improve right away if they sort some things out, and B) Illinois and Nevada both sold out to stop the run, stacking the box and daring Mizzou to pass, which of course they did successfully.
Unlike past years, Mizzou has actually stuck with the run when it wasn't working, but even with all these excuses, the 3.8 yards per carry is not good. Ultimately, I think Mizzou is capable of coming out and having a respectable rushing day on Nebraska, perhaps 100 to 150 yards, but I'm not counting on it.
Keys to this phase: Mizzou must find some area on the line to find leverage and contain Suh, and the offensive line needs to open more holes. Odds: 25%.
Advantage: Significant Nebraska advantage
Special Teams:
Punt returns: NU 31st, MU 85th
Opponent punt returns: NU 31st, MU 19th
Kick returns: NU 49th, MU 60th
Opponent kick returns: NU 62th, MU 99th
Punting: NU 64th, MU 14th
Opponent punting: NU 100th, MU Missouri 28th
There doesn't seem to be a clear edge here for either team. Both have strengths and weaknesses, but you don't see any strength on weakness matchups. Both kickers are pretty automatic within 45 yards or so. NU might have 5 yards more range, but honestly how often does that matter?
Key to this phase: Field position. I don't see either team breaking off a huge return for a TD, but in a tight game field position could be key, especially off of kickoff returns. If Nebraska can set up around midfield a few times against Mizzou's poor coverage, that could go a long way to helping the offense. Odds: 55%.
Advantage: Push
Overall:
This looks like a classic lines vs skill players game, and could go either way. However, not all phases of the game are equal, and Mizzou's passing advantage could prove critical.
3 keys to the game for Mizzou:
1. Limit big plays. Make NU earn it. Odds: 60%.
2. Hold Nebraska under 200 yards rushing. Odds: 55%.
3. Keep NU honest with the rush. Just 90 yards should do it. Odds: 45%
3 keys to the game for Nebraska:
1. Get the passing game going. 250 yards passing should be enough. Odds: 40%.
2. Pressure Gabbert without blitzing too often. Odds: 40%.
3. Control the clock. Keep at least 38 minutes of possession: Odds: 50%.
Prediction: Nebraska will control, but not dominate, the lines of scrimmage, and control the clock. They will get 150 to 200 yards rushing and add another 200 passing. Mizzou will force enough 3rd and longs to stall out most drives. Mizzou will move the ball heavily through the air. Nebraska will force negative plays on enough drives to stall them, but not consistently. Mizzou will struggle in the red zone, relying on big plays to score at least half their TDs, and settle for FGs on at least half their trips inside the 20. It will be a close game until the early 4th quarter when Mizzou will pull away.
Factor most likely to sway this prediction in NU's favor: NU DOMINATES the LOS and rushes at will, pressures Gabbert and shuts down the run game.
Factor most likely to sway this prediction in MU's favor: MU minimizes NU's rushing game and gets a rushing game of its own going.
Score: 31-21 Mizzou.
