Michigan State a little overrated?

Saunders

Saunders

Heisman Trophy Winner
Anyone else find the love MSU is getting a little odd? First, I'm not taking anything away from what they've done the last two years. Been a very good team, with few weaknesses. But this year is not last year.

They have a rank of #13 in both polls which I can understand. What I don't get, is why so many are picking us to finish behind them (and lose in East Lansing). We skull drug them last year. The "flat" argument holds little water, because they weren't playing sloppy, or making a multitude of mistakes. Our defense simply shut them down, they struggled to run after the first series, and Cousins had nobody to throw to.

Fast forward to 2012. MSU graduates the greatest senior class in school history, and arguably, one of their best QB's ever. Also, they lost their top 4 pass catchers. Of course, according the the talking heads, MSU is just going to lean on their ground game via LeVeon Bell. But lets look at the numbers.

MSU Rush Rankings 2011 - (These are B1G Conference ranks)

YPG - 137 - #11 (Only ahead of Iowa)

ATT/G - 35 - #11 (Only ahead of Iowa)

YPC - 3.95 - t#9 (Tied with Iowa, ahead of Indiana and Northwestern)

Yards - 1931 - #10 (Played 2 more games than #11 Minnesota, and 1 more than #12 Iowa)

That doesn't look like a dominating rushing attack that you can lean on to move the chains while your passing offense gets up to speed. I simply don't think that they're going to score enough points, even with a good defense. I think they're looking at a 9-3 type season.

Thoughts?

 
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I don't think they'll beat us in the standings unless they beat us head to head. They'll have a good defense, but not much else.

I couldn't figure out how we were the only team to beat them in conference play last year. And we beat them bad. They even handled the two teams that destroyed us.

 
mrandyk said:
I don't think they'll beat us in the standings unless they beat us head to head. They'll have a good defense, but not much else.

I couldn't figure out how we were the only team to beat them in conference play last year. And we beat them bad. They even handled the two teams that destroyed us.
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It looked the Huskers prepared VERY WELL for the Spartans last year and it showed in dominating fashion.

 
I think their offensive losses are huge, but they have pretty decent guys coming in. From what I understand their new QB is pretty good. If they have even a decent offense they'll be a contender for the Legends. That defense is looking really scary.

They also have the benefit of showing consistency over the past few years, something we have definitely not done. You never know which Husker team is going to show up. If we get that problem fixed, and if we're even marginally improved over last year on OFF and DEF, we should definitely contend as well.

Should be a fun divisional race.

 
MSU this season reminds me a little of Nebraska in 2009. VERY good defense . . . but not much else. That could be enough and we do have to play them in their house.

 
knapplc said:
I think their offensive losses are huge, but they have pretty decent guys coming in. From what I understand their new QB is pretty good. If they have even a decent offense they'll be a contender for the Legends. That defense is looking really scary.

They also have the benefit of showing consistency over the past few years, something we have definitely not done. You never know which Husker team is going to show up. If we get that problem fixed, and if we're even marginally improved over last year on OFF and DEF, we should definitely contend as well.

Should be a fun divisional race.
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I agree with this. I think what I find puzzling, is the consensus by the talking heads that the legends division is down to UM and MSU... then Nebraska, and everyone else.

IMO, we're going to see a three way tie at 6-2.

 
Given the year they had last year and their win over Georgia in a big bowl game, this is the type of thing that happens in the offseason. People actually view them positively.... Imagine that.

 
I would argue that they are overrated, but I think the media believes they will just be able to reload. Dantonio seems to have built a solid program but this year, having lost so much talent in key areas, will be the real test. I honestly feel like Michigan State and Nebraska occupy the same territory, they are good teams with solid foundations that are looking to make the jump to great teams. But I think this season we have the upper hand. Until we get a mid season idea of how things will shake out I would have to say that MSU could potentially be a .500 team. They would have to give away a game or two (which isn't there style) but they could easily have 4 in conference losses and there is the possibility of 2 non conference losses as well. But right now there are just to many variable to accurately rank any team except the top 5 or so.

 
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mrandyk said:
I don't think they'll beat us in the standings unless they beat us head to head. They'll have a good defense, but not much else. I couldn't figure out how we were the only team to beat them in conference play last year. And we beat them bad. They even handled the two teams that destroyed us.
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its pretty simple, bo's defense dominates immobile qbs, and sucks hind tit against mobile ones

 
Defense is projected to be their strong suit, and the evidence so far supports this. Their offense has talent, but a lot of it is underdeveloped talent that will get better as the season goes on. I don't think they'll win the Legends, and I don't think their team is deserving of the #13 ranking, but they'll ride it as long as they can. What happens in the future is more of an issue, and this is the problem with most ranking systems.

Say several top 10 teams drop some games they shouldn't to lower ranked opponents, MSU could be sitting in the Top 10 all of a sudden, even though they're not really a Top 10 talented team.

 
According to ESPN's Brian Bennett, Nebraska has the best overall preseason position rankings in the B10, while MSU comes in at 4th.

Bennet: "This outcome is somewhat surprising, as I did not expect Nebraska to come out on top. But the Huskers didn't have any low rankings, and indeed, they does not have any glaring weak spots heading into the fall. It's more of a question of whether this team has enough difference-makers in key spots."

On MSU: "The Spartans probably would have finished on top if not for their low scores at quarterback and receiver. And, of course, those are the real question marks for this team."

http://espn.go.com/b...sition-rankings

 
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Enhance89 said:
Defense is projected to be their strong suit, and the evidence so far supports this. Their offense has talent, but a lot of it is underdeveloped talent that will get better as the season goes on. I don't think they'll win the Legends, and I don't think their team is deserving of the #13 ranking, but they'll ride it as long as they can. What happens in the future is more of an issue, and this is the problem with most ranking systems.

Say several top 10 teams drop some games they shouldn't to lower ranked opponents, MSU could be sitting in the Top 10 all of a sudden, even though they're not really a Top 10 talented team.
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Got to love preseason rankings?

 
HuskerShark said:
Given the year they had last year and their win over Georgia in a big bowl game, this is the type of thing that happens in the offseason. People actually view them positively.... Imagine that.
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Sometimes that happens when you don't get blown out in your bowl game, and actually win it.

 
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