National Championship

Using the above ESPN FPI numbers (since they are updated),

Chance of Nebraska going 13-0 = 0.3% (winning the B1G undefeated. Assumes 13% odds in championship game)

Chance of Nebraska going 12-0 = 1.4%

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 9.1% (losing to Ohio State only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 3.0% (losing to Wisconsin only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 1.3% (losing to Iowa only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 0.3% (losing to Minnesota only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 0.3% (losing to Maryland only)

Total Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 14% (+/-)

Chance of Nebraska going 12-1 = 1.8% (winning B1G with one loss)

Chance of Nebraska winning the West with either zero or one reg season loss = 15.4%

Chance of Nebraska winning The B1G with either zero or one reg season loss = 2.1%

There is a chance Nebraska could win the West with 2 losses, but that would be a much longer equation....

 
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I like our chances of going 11-1. These grind it out wins are blueprints on how to beat better opponents. We will have to use the same formula, ball control, defense, and timely scoring but that is how you win ballgames folks and this Husker team has practice

 
IA State Husker said:
Using the above ESPN FPI numbers (since they are updated),

Chance of Nebraska going 13-0 = 0.3% (winning the B1G undefeated. Assumes 13% odds in championship game)

Chance of Nebraska going 12-0 = 1.4%

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 9.1% (losing to Ohio State only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 3.0% (losing to Wisconsin only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 1.3% (losing to Iowa only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 0.3% (losing to Minnesota only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 0.3% (losing to Maryland only)

Total Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 14% (+/-)

Chance of Nebraska going 12-1 = 1.8% (winning B1G with one loss)

Chance of Nebraska winning the West with either zero or one reg season loss = 15.4%

Chance of Nebraska winning The B1G with either zero or one reg season loss = 2.1%

There is a chance Nebraska could win the West with 2 losses, but that would be a much longer equation....
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Great work!!!!

Ok so if we don't get thru the big ten with 1 loss or less then there is a 100% chance that a two loss team would represent the west (assuming NW doesn't beat both OSU and WISC)

So assuming that we don't loss 3 games down the stretch we are only 1 of 3 teams that would have a chance with the tie breaker

I am going to make some loose assumptions: 75% chance that we don't loss 3 games or more and we would have a 40% chance in the tie breaker.

Giving us: (chance with x losses:)

0: 1.4%

1: 14%

2: 30%

West Winner: 45.4%

 
IA State Husker said:
Using the above ESPN FPI numbers (since they are updated),

Chance of Nebraska going 13-0 = 0.3% (winning the B1G undefeated. Assumes 13% odds in championship game)

Chance of Nebraska going 12-0 = 1.4%

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 9.1% (losing to Ohio State only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 3.0% (losing to Wisconsin only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 1.3% (losing to Iowa only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 0.3% (losing to Minnesota only)

Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 0.3% (losing to Maryland only)

Total Chance of Nebraska going 11-1 = 14% (+/-)

Chance of Nebraska going 12-1 = 1.8% (winning B1G with one loss)

Chance of Nebraska winning the West with either zero or one reg season loss = 15.4%

Chance of Nebraska winning The B1G with either zero or one reg season loss = 2.1%

There is a chance Nebraska could win the West with 2 losses, but that would be a much longer equation....
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That math stuff is complicated. Well, actually math is easy, it's statistics that are a devil. There is a reason that students taking the "Intro to Probability and Statistics" class just refer to it as "Sadistics".

 
Huskerfan55 said:
I have stayed off the board until now but what the hell is this guy smoking - must be good!
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You know it bud. A combo of strong kool-aid and good smoke leaves the mind in a very positive place.

I just want to enjoy the ride, I'm sick of thinking about this team screwing up. People are just waiting on it to happen, and there's a realistic chance that they do, doesn't mean I can't daydream.

 
GBRFAN said:
West Winner: 45.4%
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I'm not sure how accurate that number is, but I like it. Plus, I don't want to try and do the math, so let's go with that.

Assuming a 13% chance in the title game gives us 6% odds of a B1G championship.

At least we control our own destiny right now.

 
Our next game will dramatically change our odds of winning the West.

If we beat Wisconsin, I want to see Larry Culpepper talking about it in a new Dr. Pepper ad.

 
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Even though the path is not likely, it is fun to be able to at least see that a path exists.

I like to see it this way--win one of the next two and Nebraska is probably in the rose bowl or better.

 
GBRFAN said:
Moiraine said:
I think we have a:

33% chance of beating Wisconsin

25% chance of beating Ohio State

80% chance on the next two

75% chance beating Iowa

25% chance beating Ohio State/Michigan

10% chance in semi finals

2% chance in finals

100*0.33*0.25*0.8*0.8*0.75*0.25 = 0.99% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship

*0.1*0.02 = 0.00198% chance of winning the National Championship
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Your equation is interesting and does show how difficult it is to win the Big Ten, however pretty flawed in the fact that we could loss 1 and possibly 2 games and still win the BTC game.
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It's flawed in way more ways that, considering all of the game probabilities were just made up in my head.

But you're correct. The B1G win probability should have said "while undefeated."

 
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The fact we are in a position to talk about this at this point in the season is great. Haven't had a season where we control our own destiny for the national championship game heading into week 9 in a long, long time.

 
Here's the thing, while this isn't likely to happen, we are on a short list of teams thato still have a chance at the CFP. Right now there are probably 12-14 teams in the country that have a realistic path to the CFP and we are one of them. And by realistic path I mean we don't need 10 other teams to lose to get in. Win and we are in, not alot of teams can say that at this point

 
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