Nebraska Toss Up Games in 2015

[Sargon]

1 more jmbf...how many Wisky D players will make the all Big 10 2 deep? You are telling us apparently how good they'll be so tell us. How many are going to make the all big 2 deep?

How many for NU? I say 4 will, which will put NU 2nd in the Big and ahead of UW, which IMO will be a really solid showing.

 

[Ed Helms]

The last time Mike Riley and Mark Banker faced Wisconsin and Paul Chryst they held them to 7 points and 207 total yards (172 passing/35 rushing). Now they have a more talented team and will have a way better home-field advantage at their disposal. Wisconsin is not a sure fire loss, they'll be a challenge (every year), but NU can absolutely beat them next year.

 

[Red Five]

Wisconsin beat NU by 35 points- could have been more if they wanted it. Took starters out late 3rd quarter. Keep starters in- they win by 50++

Is NU 50 points better than last year? No

Did you not give NU a chance against Michigan in 2012 after the 28 point beatdown we took in the Big House in 2011?

 

[jmfb]

I don't know what to expect from the defense from either team.

Wisconsin has 8 kids back from a top 10 defense including 4 starters from the secondaryNU looks to throw a lot- that doesnt look like our defense could be compared to theirs in at all

#4 vs what Number 60? with 8 starters returning: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

Wisconsin also #4 in the nation in Pass defense with all 4 starters back- I dont see Tommy tearing it up against that group

NU looks to throw a lot? Based on what information did you come to that conclusion?

Well most 60+ year old coaches coach what they know and believe in

The last 2 years OSU for example has thrown for 8100 yards and run for just 2600, so 3 to 1 pass to run production

Lots of guys here think NU has a great QB and a whole bunch of good receivers and loses its Heisman Trophy hunt RB with no one really proven in reserve (but a 4th team guy who is going to make it in the NFL?)

So the track record along with what we have coming back- would lead most people to think we probably plan on throwing the ball a lot

 

[jmfb]

1 more jmbf...how many Wisky D players will make the all Big 10 2 deep? You are telling us apparently how good they'll be so tell us. How many are going to make the all big 2 deep?

How many for NU? I say 4 will, which will put NU 2nd in the Big and ahead of UW, which IMO will be a really solid showing.

Does anyone really care about all star lists?

Wisconsin is returning 8 kids from the 4th best Defense in the country

NUs defense by most rankings would be in the 40-60s

No analyst is ever going to suggest NUs defense will be better than Wisconsins or even comparable for that matter

Everyone keeps forgetting Banker was on the hot seat at OSU- none of this crew has proven anything yet

 

[jmfb]

The last time Mike Riley and Mark Banker faced Wisconsin and Paul Chryst they held them to 7 points and 207 total yards (172 passing/35 rushing). Now they have a more talented team and will have a way better home-field advantage at their disposal. Wisconsin is not a sure fire loss, they'll be a challenge (every year), but NU can absolutely beat them next year.

That might be something to be optimistic about, but a then healthy WIsconsin the year before beats OSU 35-0

Paul Chryst didnt coach at WIsconsin in 2012- they year they lost to OSU- his team beat them 35-0

BUT if you look at the context it may temper your optimism just a bit

Wisconsin stumbled out of the gate that year- lots of injuries, The one "bad" season in last 5, they win the darned conference and nearly win the Rose Bowl, go figure LOL

Game 1, barely beat Northern Iowa by 5, Wisconisn had to hold on for dear life at the end of that game, very lucky to have won it

Game 2 Lose to OSU by 3

Game 3 Nearly get beat by Utah State- win by 2 in a game where they score the last 10 points in the 4th quarter including an 80 yard punt return to win it- very fortunate again

Game 4 beat 1-3 UTEp by 11 a game UTEP fumbled away after closing to 4 midway through the 4th

Game 5 Lose to Nebraska by 3

Real ugly football those first 5 games, when you look under the covers the OSU win isnt really that big a deal

So OSU in that context was performing at about the same level as Northern Iowa, Utah State, UTEP and NU

2102 was OSUs very best season in 5 by a long shot

2012 was Wisconsins very worst season

Was it a fluke- the data says probably, Im hoping it wasnt

But by midseason they right the ship a bit and blow out NU in the title game

 

[True2tRA]

I don't know what to expect from the defense from either team.

Wisconsin has 8 kids back from a top 10 defense including 4 starters from the secondaryNU looks to throw a lot- that doesnt look like our defense could be compared to theirs in at all

#4 vs what Number 60? with 8 starters returning: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

Wisconsin also #4 in the nation in Pass defense with all 4 starters back- I dont see Tommy tearing it up against that group

NU looks to throw a lot? Based on what information did you come to that conclusion?

Well most 60+ year old coaches coach what they know and believe inThe last 2 years OSU for example has thrown for 8100 yards and run for just 2600, so 3 to 1 pass to run production

Lots of guys here think NU has a great QB and a whole bunch of good receivers and loses its Heisman Trophy hunt RB with no one really proven in reserve

So the track record along with what we have coming back- would lead most people to think we probably plan on throwing the ball a lot

I guess I don't know what a lot is to you. I made it clearer than you are. I'm hoping for about a 60% to 40% run to pass ratio. Also, I wasn't talking about production numbers, thats impossible to know where those numbers will end up or to even try to shoot for a specific number in production.
Those production numbers you talk about from the last 2 years are really thrown off quite a bit, especially when you look at 2013 which has the highest pass attempts I believe Riley's offense ever attempted. 2014 wasn't far behind as far as attempts either. I would expect production to increase with the number of attempts, at least one would hope.

I could cherry pick a couple of seasons to support an argument too and I'd say those two seasons demonstrate exactly what you want them to, which is why you chose them. When you look at Rileys career in it's entirety though, you'll actually see that he's been much closer to a 50/50 or 55/45 ratio of pass to run (I didn't do the math, just glanced at some stats) I'd say that's quite a long ways off the 3 to 1 ratio or 75/25 ratio you're claiming this 60+ year old coach has become accustomed to.

As far as your comment about " a lot of guys here" think this or that about our QB, I would say our offensive direction will depend more on what Coach Riley thinks about our QB. Not what a lot of people here think.

From what I hear, Armstrong is about as mobile a QB as Riley has ever had an opportunity to work with. I've heard he has quite an interest in sustaining some of the aspects of the zone read and other ways to use Armstrong's mobility. It's been said Riley will shape this offense aroun the skill set of his players. So anyways, all that said, I don't think theres really been any way to tell exactly what direction this offene is headed as you claim to know.

Again, I would throw recent history out the window. It's easier that way. We are looking at polar opposite coaching staffs with polar opposite approaches, to teaching, offense and defense, and overall styles of football. I'm hoping we move toward a run heavy pro-style offense but I truly don't know what to expect.

 

[jmfb]

I don't know what to expect from the defense from either team.

Wisconsin has 8 kids back from a top 10 defense including 4 starters from the secondaryNU looks to throw a lot- that doesnt look like our defense could be compared to theirs in at all

#4 vs what Number 60? with 8 starters returning: http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

Wisconsin also #4 in the nation in Pass defense with all 4 starters back- I dont see Tommy tearing it up against that group

NU looks to throw a lot? Based on what information did you come to that conclusion?

Well most 60+ year old coaches coach what they know and believe inThe last 2 years OSU for example has thrown for 8100 yards and run for just 2600, so 3 to 1 pass to run production

Lots of guys here think NU has a great QB and a whole bunch of good receivers and loses its Heisman Trophy hunt RB with no one really proven in reserve

So the track record along with what we have coming back- would lead most people to think we probably plan on throwing the ball a lot

I guess I don't know what a lot is to you. I made it clearer than you are. I'm hoping for about a 60% to 40% run to pass ratio. Also, I wasn't talking about production numbers, thats impossible to know where those numbers will end up or to even try to shoot for a specific number in production.
Those production numbers you talk about from the last 2 years are really thrown off quite a bit, especially when you look at 2013 which has the highest pass attempts I believe Riley's offense ever attempted. 2014 wasn't far behind as far as attempts either. I would expect production to increase with the number of attempts, at least one would hope.

I could cherry pick a couple of seasons to support an argument too and I'd say those two seasons demonstrate exactly what you want them to, which is why you chose them. When you look at Rileys career in it's entirety though, you'll actually see that he's been much closer to a 50/50 or 55/45 ratio of pass to run (I didn't do the math, just glanced at some stats) I'd say that's quite a long ways off the 3 to 1 ratio or 75/25 ratio you're claiming this 60+ year old coach has become accustomed to.

Well I just took the 2 most recent

If you go to the 2 years before its:

3900 passing 1600 running

3400 passing 1000 running

I wasnt cherry picking, just going on what his track record and history says he does.

His last 4 teams averaged what about 105 yards rushing a game?

When people talk 50/50 they are talking yards, not attempts but as you can see- his version of the Pro Style offense is pretty pass heavy and that's what he and his coaches know and believe in like a lot/most of NFL guys do

 

[Redux]

Yes, we know your credentials. You tell us every post.

I'm almost 29 and don't live in a basement.

lol

I even own my own basement so I could choose to live in it ONLY if I wanted.

 

[jmfb]

Some numbers to digest

In the Big, the top 3 teams of late have been OSU, Wisconsin and MSU

This is their passing- running yards the last 3 seasons:

OSU

Passing Running

3700 3900

2800 4300

2100 2900

Total- 2500+ run

Wisconsin

2000 4400

2800 3600

2200 3300

Total 4300+ run

MSU

3400 3000

3000 2400

2200 1900

Total 1300+ pass

HEre is what Oregon State did:

3300 1400

4800 1200

3900 1600

Comparison total- 7800+ pass

Following 2 years:

3400 1000

2400 1400

So of the top 3 teams- only one MSU had more passing yards than rushing yards and then, they are fairly close/balanced

They came in at +2500 run, + 4300 run, + 1300 pass and then Riley at + 7800 pass. Those are some pretty frightening numbers

Wisconsin and OSU over time- much heavier run over pass

IMO if we go that route it will be difficult to compete with teams who are regularly outrushing us by, 2x, 3x, 4x when we are outpassing them by a factor of none or maybe 2 in a really good year

Rileys history says he is 2-1 or even 3-1 Pass to rush. Lots of seasons with 1200- 1400 yards rushing, one season with just 1000 yards- all in last 4 years

Can that totally different mindset work in the Big? Or will he at 60+ totally flip his belief system and what he knows/believes in/has always done to do what works in the Big?

Pass first. pass heavy teams just havent had consistent success in the Big

I hope he was listening when Tom Osborne suggested that he needs to run the ball a bunch

 

[Sargon]

1 more jmbf...how many Wisky D players will make the all Big 10 2 deep? You are telling us apparently how good they'll be so tell us. How many are going to make the all big 2 deep?

How many for NU? I say 4 will, which will put NU 2nd in the Big and ahead of UW, which IMO will be a really solid showing.

Does anyone really care about all star lists?

Wisconsin is returning 8 kids from the 4th best Defense in the country

NUs defense by most rankings would be in the 40-60s

No analyst is ever going to suggest NUs defense will be better than Wisconsins or even comparable for that matter

Everyone keeps forgetting Banker was on the hot seat at OSU- none of this crew has proven anything yet

 

[Redux]

Oregon State is a rough place to win at, yet Riley had them competing with the heavies in the league. Granted he had fallen into a run which is why he took this job.

Now, I don't care what Wiscy, tOSU and Sparty have done in the 4 years we have been around. I'm more worried how we stack up against them this year. Unless you can give us statstics from the 2015 season, these numbers you keep posting mean nada. Yes those teams have been successful. No promise Wiscy doesn't take a step back under new leadership, same for Dantonio's squad. Yeah we know tOSU will be good but they aren't on our schedule this year unless we make the title game.

 

[jmfb]

The OP was about the Toss Up games and the authors belief that NU would win all but 1 game

They used the information available now to make their case. The OP posted the article and was looking for feedback- opinions

I totally disagreed with it (opinion) and stated factually why I thought NU was probably a 7-8 outside chance 9 win team

That included using past data like what Mike Riley has done consistently on offense scheme and production wise for the last 10+ years as a basis for that thought and compared it to what has worked and has NOT worked in the Big

It included how well teams did last year- keeping in mind and talking about what they have coming back, vs what NU has coming back

When the numbers/facts done line up with peoples views, they usually change the subject or lash out- pretty common deal\

When guys use past game data to try and bolster their view, like when OSU beat a really down, injured Wisconsin team, worst in 5 years _ I just asked people to put it in context and look at what that really meant- which at the time meant OSU was on par with UTEP, Northern Iowa and Utah State. Most people didnt know that. Cant have it both ways.

To think OSU was +7800 pass over run in last 3 years when the top Big teams were +2500, + 4300 run and +1300 pass is quite telling. Im guessing most people had no idea the gap was so large.

 

[Sargon]

Yet more comic relief. Thanks.

 

[Redux]

The OP was about the Toss Up games and the authors belief that NU would win all but 1 game

They used the information available now to make their case. The OP posted the article and was looking for feedback- opinions

I totally disagreed with it (opinion) and stated factually why I thought NU was probably a 7-8 outside chance 9 win team

That included using past data like what Mike Riley has done consistently on offense scheme and production wise for the last 10+ years as a basis for that thought and compared it to what has worked and has NOT worked in the Big

It included how well teams did last year- keeping in mind and talking about what they have coming back, vs what NU has coming back

When the numbers/facts done line up with peoples views, they usually change the subject or lash out- pretty common deal\

When guys use past game data to try and bolster their view, like when OSU beat a really down, injured Wisconsin team, worst in 5 years _ I just asked people to put it in context and look at what that really meant- which at the time meant OSU was on par with UTEP, Northern Iowa and Utah State. Most people didnt know that. Cant have it both ways.

To think OSU was +7800 pass over run in last 3 years when the top Big teams were +2500, + 4300 run and +1300 pass is quite telling. Im guessing most people had no idea the gap was so large.

The only thing we have to base how good a team will be is what they did the previous year and what they return from that team.

We know tOSU will be good. They return a lot from a National Championship team.

We know MSU will again have a stout defense but could lack some on offense.

We know Wisconsin will be a threat with a RB that backed up a Heisman contender and a good defense. They do however have a new coach. While he does have a B1G background, he is actually coming from a Big East/ACC/AAC team that was meh last year. I don't expect Wiscy ro toll over by any means but I do expect them to be vunerable enough to beat.

Minnesota has gotten better every year under Kill. Do they return enough to continue that trend? Does the West division out up more of a fight and they take a step back? Hard to say.

Iowa.....anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. Toss up what they actually do.

NW is back to being what they are supposed to be.

Nebraska ushers in a new coach as well so transition will be expected. The new guy came from a meh team in the Pac 12 and he is no spring chicken. But he is replacing a guy with much less experience that couldn't turn a corner. Riley was left with a pretty good team given the circumstances, the cupboard is hardly bare but some spots could quickly become a liability should injuries pile up. Team chemistry will be huge in determining whether Nebraska turns in another 4 loss (or worse) season, or finally turns the corner and competes with every team they play. The schedule sets up nicely with the 2 biggest conference tests being in Lincoln. Some think that doesn't matter but it beats the hell out of playing them in Camp Randall and East Lansing. Non Conference tests early should show just what we have in store for 2015. I expect a 10-2 season and to be competetive in every game. Im basing most of that off of gut feeling and optimism.