Nebraska's Chance Against Our Schedule

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Sagarin's rankings were a great help when I created Pelini's best wins and worst losses page. However, in making that, I used his synthesis rankings. For future games, he has a different set of rankings. These rankings are what I will use to discuss our chances against the remainder of our schedules. In doing this, I will also take a look back at how Nebraska has fared against teams in these ranking positions.

Nebraska Sagarin Ranking #24

October 5th: vs. Illinois (Memorial Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #59

The Illini should head into Lincoln 3-1, their only loss being a competitive game to Washington who happens to be ranked #14 in Sagarin's rankings. That's definitely an overperformance by Tim Beckman's squad, but let's not forget that they also struggled out of the gate against Eastern Illinois who is ranked #88. Certainly this is the best team Illinois has fielded in recent memory, and they could very well give the Huskers a test if they are not ready for it. However, Bo Pelini has a good reputation for beating teams that are ranked far below his Huskers losing just twice to teams who shared Illinois's current position (Iowa State--2009, Northwestern--2011). It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

Probability of Illini Victory = 15-20%

October 12th @ Purdue (Ross-Ade Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #99

I think the tendency here for the skeptics would be to cite Purdue's hard fought loss to Notre Dame; that's giving the Boilermakers too much credit. Granted, Purdue has played a pretty tough schedule, but even against their one opponent that they were ranked higher than, Indiana State, they struggled and scraped by with a 6 point win. It hasn't been a fantastic start for Hazell's squad, but it hasn't exactly been a soft welcoming for him either. Overall, the teams Purdue struggled with had an offense. Should Nebraska keep going simple like they did last week, we win this one going away. Couple this with the fact that Bo has not lost to ANY team ranked lower than #75. I won't rule out a loss, because that would be bad predicting. Anything can happen in college football, but a loss here seems pretty unlikely.

Probability of Boilermaker Victory = 2-5%

October 26th @ Minnesota (TCF Bank Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #64

It's good to see Minnesota playing well. I like Jerry Kill and I want him to have success because he's a good guy. Minnesota's toughest test so far has come against San Jose State (#79) and they looked pretty good winning 43-24. But we'll see where the Gophers stand when they take on Iowa this Saturday (#55). Should the Gophers win, I will say that they are a legitimate threat to the Huskers (which pains me to say that). As stated earlier, Bo has lost only twice to teams who share Minnesota's ranking, but because this game is on the road and the Wildcats looming, I give the Gophers a much better chance of being the upset team this year than the Illini.

Probability of Gopher Victory = 25-30%

November 2nd vs Northwestern (Memorial Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #45

For as well as Northwestern has played, it is odd to me that Sagarin has them ranked 45th. They've beat California (#78) by 14, Syracuse (#57) by 21, Western Michigan (#155) by 21, and Maine (#122) by 14. They are the media darling of the Big Ten and seem to already have the game against Nebraska won. I don't think that is too true. After all, Bo is tremendously good against teams in Northwestern's ranking area. Yes, Nebraska's defensive woes are a legitimate concern against the Wildcats, but I'm banking on our defense being a little more gelled and successful come November.

Probability of Wildcat Victory = 30-35%

November 9th @ Michigan (The Big House) Sagarin Ranking #34

The Wolverines are just as unproven as the Huskers so far in the early stages of the season, struggling to embarrassing victories over Akron (#134) and Connecticut (#84). Devin Gardner has been more of a turnover machine than Taylor Martinez. One thing is for sure, if nothing changes between now and our game against the Wolverines, Michigan's offense will make our defense look good, and their defense will make our offense look worse. The degree of which could determine who goes to Indianapolis. But I think both squads will be different come November 9th. This is a tough one to call, but the road game makes me lean more towards the Wolverines than the Huskers.

Probability of Wolverine Victory = 52-57%

November 16th vs Michigan State (Memorial Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #47

The Spartans would be a much better team if they had just an average offense. But they haven't found a rhythm on the offensive side of the ball since Kirk Cousins left for the NFL. It's tough for a defense to hold opponents to under 13 points, but if there is a defense that can do it, it is the Spartan D. It was thought that Michigan State was going to shut down our offense last year and the Huskers proved the pundits wrong, racking up 473 yards of offense. We'll figure to do it again this year and given the fact that Pelini hasn't lost to a team ranked in this area and the Spartans haven't beat Nebraska EVER; I don't think Michigan State will come into Lincoln and pull out a win.

Probability of a Spartan Victory: 22-26%

November 23rd @ Penn State (Beaver Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #22

Penn State is the only team remaining on Nebraska's schedule who is ranked above the Huskers, and this doesn't bode to well for Nebraska especially considering the Huskers will face Penn State on the road. Hackenberg is a throwing threat, but has struggled as a true freshman. This is the second toss-up game the Huskers and will be a vitally important if the Huskers manage to get by Michigan (or even if they don't get past the Wolverines). Penn State has given Nebraska a test in each of their two meetings since the Huskers join the Big Ten and this one at the moment figures to be another close game.

Probability of a Nittany Lion Victory: 45-55%

November 29th vs Iowa (Memorial Stadium) Sagarin Ranking #52

The Heroes Game will feature an Iowa team that might be on the rise again against a Nebraska team that may be fighting for a trip to Indianapolis. I don't think Iowa will give the Huskers too much of a threat, but perhaps that'll change come closer to game time.

Probability of Hawkeye Victory = 10-15%

In summary, the potential is there for at most two more losses, which would put Nebraska at 9-3 and likely bound for the Gator Bowl. Win one of those two and we head to another January 1st match up against the SEC. Win both of those and we will have a chance to make it to the Rose Bowl. We'll see how this changes as the rankings change.

 

[presidentjlh]

Every game this year has been and is winnable. This is certain. But unless our defense shows up better, I do not see us winning all them.

But I hope.

 

[KJ.]

A few pointers, Nate:

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

In summary, the potential is there for at most two more losses, which would put Nebraska at 9-3

Actually, given the aggressive probabilities you made up, there's about a 34% chance we win an additional 5 games or less. If you use the conservative estimates, it's about 47%.

 

[Dr. Mantis Toboggan]

Sweet! I know how the season ends. See y'all next year!

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

A few pointers, Nate:

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

In summary, the potential is there for at most two more losses, which would put Nebraska at 9-3

Actually, given the aggressive probabilities you made up, there's about a 34% chance we win an additional 5 games or less. If you use the conservative estimates, it's about 47%.

What crawled up your a$$ and died? First of all, there was no actual calculation of probability. Those were arbitrary numbers given the difference in Sagarin's rankings.

Second of all, it's stupid to calculate a cumulative probability because it underestimates and paints a doom and gloom picture. So this looks at each individual game because it doesn't matter what happened the game before.

 

[walksalone]

Actually, given the aggressive probabilities you made up, there's about a 34% chance we win an additional 5 games or less. If you use the conservative estimates, it's about 47%.

 

[KJ.]

A few pointers, Nate:

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

In summary, the potential is there for at most two more losses, which would put Nebraska at 9-3

Actually, given the aggressive probabilities you made up, there's about a 34% chance we win an additional 5 games or less. If you use the conservative estimates, it's about 47%.

What crawled up your a$$ and died? First of all, there was no actual calculation of probability. Those were arbitrary numbers given the difference in Sagarin's rankings.

Second of all, it's stupid to calculate a cumulative probability because it underestimates and paints a doom and gloom picture. So this looks at each individual game because it doesn't matter what happened the game before.

So Saragin gave the probabilities? Or you did?

Not that it really matters. And if it's so stupid to talk about a cumulative probability, don't do it yourself with the "we lose at most 2 games bit". But if you are, at least be right about it.

 

[memyselfandillini]

Illinois played SOUTHERN Illinois and not EASTERN Illinois week 1, fyi.

 

[desertshox]

A few pointers, Nate:

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

2008 6-2

2009 5-2

2010 6-1

2011 6-1

2012 7-0

2013 3-1

so why exactly shouldnt we take him serious? through the first 5 years they have only averaged 1.2 losses at home a season and had won 10 in a row until the ucla loss.

 

[Ulty]

November 9th @ Michigan (The Big House) Sagarin Ranking #34

Probability of Wolverine Victory = 52-57%

I don't know how these percentages were calculated, and I know Michigan hasn't looked too impressive so far this season, but I would tend to think that they have a higher probability than 52-57% of winning ANY game in the Big House, regardless of the opponent.

In fact, I'll go as far to say that to only give Michigan a 52% chance of winning this game is ridiculous. When was the last time Michigan lost a home game in November to anyone but Ohio State, other than during the miserable RichRod years?

 

[QMany]

When was the last time Michigan lost a home game in November to anyone but Ohio State, other than during the miserable RichRod years?

Quite the qualifiers for a question. That leaves THREE games in the last 5.5 years.

But yes, you are right, they won those three.

A few pointers, Nate:

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

2008 6-2

2009 5-2

2010 6-1

2011 6-1

2012 7-0

2013 3-1

so why exactly shouldnt we take him serious? through the first 5 years they have only averaged 1.2 losses at home a season and had won 10 in a row until the ucla loss.

In related news, KJ is a prick. As if we didn't already know this.

 

[Ulty]

When was the last time Michigan lost a home game in November to anyone but Ohio State, other than during the miserable RichRod years?

Quite the qualifiers for a question. That leaves THREE games in the last 5.5 years.

But yes, you are right, they won those three.

Lol, I didn't think about how much that limited the most recent years, you're right. But I was thinking even before RichRod came on. Lloyd Carr didn't lose at home in November either (or very rarely anyway), not that he has anything to do with anything today. The point is, Michigan has a pretty good homefield advantage. They'll have much better odds of winning against us than the OP lays out.

 

[VA Husker Fan]

Second of all, it's stupid to calculate a cumulative probability because it underestimates and paints a doom and gloom picture. So this looks at each individual game because it doesn't matter what happened the game before.

I like the cumulative probability method. Sure, each game is independent, but the law of averages usually catches up if you are a 55-60% favorite and you'll likely lose some of those games. The more games you have left, the more it holds true. Getting down to 3 or 4 games or less I wouldn't try to use it, though even then clearly you're more likely to win them all as a 90% favorite than a 60% favorite.

 

[Glendower]

A few pointers, Nate:

It has also been rare for Nebraska to drop more than one game at home, and we've already used that loss up against UCLA.

I would avoid saying things like this if you want to be taken seriously.

2008 6-2

2009 5-2

2010 6-1

2011 6-1

2012 7-0

2013 3-1

so why exactly shouldnt we take him serious? through the first 5 years they have only averaged 1.2 losses at home a season and had won 10 in a row until the ucla loss.

Because it has no real relationship, beyond coincidence, with the present or future seasons. It's far more meaningful to look at the teams that will actually be playing than a record that includes teams made up entirely of players who aren't even here any more. If you start doing that, it really starts bordering on magical thinking.

 

[tmfr15]

Based on the opponents we have left... Nebraska's record stands at 7-5.

To improve that, the Huskers have to get over in games where the opponent should have the advantage. Here is a list of toss up games with the highest probabilty of a Husker win first and then following in order after that.

Penn State... the Nitany Lions have a pretty good ground game, a QB that should be pretty developed by the time the Huskers come calling, and a home field advantage at Beaver Stadium. On the flip side, the Nitany Lions might have some penalty related depth issues by then.

Michigan State... defense, defense, defense. Sparty should be stingy. And blow ups by the Husker defense could make it hard for Nebraska to win. At the same time, however, the Mich State offense isn't exactly outstanding.

Northwestern... these guys move the chains very well. And that could be bad since it will keep the ball away from our offense. In 2011, the Wildcats piled up the first downs and the TOP that generated ended up resulting in a win for Northwestern.

Michigan.... they have home field and some pretty dynamic players. The temptation would be to not see them as dangerous because of Akron and UConn, but that might be a knee jerk reaction too.

What seem like LOCKS for Nebraska are Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Iowa. But the Huskers have lost in head scratching ways before... Iowa State... and after watching the SDSU offense run through our defense, it's really hard to have a lot of confidence about anything right now.