*** New Scout 2012 Bowl Predictions***

[Excel]

Just like a teenage girl with Cosmo, I'm a sucker for lists. Here are some for the coming season brought to us by Athlon Sports.

Way too early 2012 Top 25

1. LSU

2. So Cal

3. Alabama

4. Georgia

5. Oklahoma

6. Oregon

7. Michigan

8. Arkansas

9. Florida State

10. Ohio State

11. South Carolina

12. Texas

13. West Virginia

14. Michigan State

15. Clemtech

16. Virginia Tech

17. Nebraska

18. Notre Dame

19. TCU

20. Washington

21. Kansas State

22. Wisconsin

23. Louisville

24. Boise State

25. Oklahoma State

2012 Big Ten predicted Division standings

Dumb Division name one

1. Ohio State

2. Wisconsin

3. Penn State

4. Illinois

5. Purdue

6. Indiana

Dumb Division name two

1. Michigan

2. Michigan State

3. Nebraska

4. Iowa

5. Northwestern

6. Minnesnowta

2012: Teams on the rise

1. Ohio State

2. Texas

3. Warshington

2012: Teams on the decline

1. Boise State

2. Oklahoma State

3. Stanford

Top 25 Division One Coaches

1. Nick Saban, UA: 146-54-1, 3 NC's, 3 CC's

2. Urban Meyer, OSU: 104-23, 2 NC's, 4 CC's

3. Bob Stoops, OU: 139-34, 1 NC, 7 CC's

4. Frank Beemer, VT: 251-121-4, 7 CC's

5. Chris Petersen, BSU: 73-6, 4 CC's

6. Chip Kelly, ORG: 34-6, 3 CC's

7. Gary Patterson, TCU: 109-30, 5 CC's

8. Steve Spurrier, USC: 197-75-2, 1 NC, 6 CC's

9. Brian Kelly, ND: 69-32, 3 CC's

10. Lane Kiffin, So Cal: 25-13

11. Brady Hoke, UM: 58-52

12. Mark Dantonio, MSU: 62-39, 1 CC

13. Mike Gundy, OkSt: 59-30, 1 CC

14. Mack Brown, UT: 227-113-1, 1 NC

15. Bill Snyder, KSU: 159-83-1, 1 CC

16. Mark Richt, UGA: 106-38, 2 CC's

17. Pat Fitzgerald, NU: 40-36

18. Mike Leach, WSU: 84-43

19. Dan Mullen, Miss St: 21-17

20. Les Miles, LSU: 103-39, 1 NC, 2 CC's

21. Paul Johnson, GT: 104-58, 1 CC

22. Art Briles, BU: 59-53, 1 CC

23. Brett Bielema, UW: 60-19, 2 CC's

24. Gary Pinkel, MU: 158-91-3, 1 CC

25. Al Golden, Miami: 33-40

Ranking the Big Ten's Coaches

1. Urban Meyer, Ohio State

2. Brady Hoke, Michigan

3. Mark Dantonio, Michigan State

4. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern

5. Bret Bielema, Wisconsin

6. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa

7. Bo Pelini, Nebraska

8. Jerry Kill, Minnesota

9. Tim Beckman, Illinois

10. Danny Hope, Purdue

11. Bill O'Brien, Penn State

12. Kevin Wilson, Indiana

Coaches on the "Hot Seat"

Frank Spaziani, Boston College

Joker Phillips, Kentucky

Derek Dooley, Tennessee

Randy Edsall, Maryland

Tommy Tuberville, Texas Tech

Jeff Tedford, California

Kirk Ferentz, Iowa

Dabo Swiney, Clempson

2012 Heisman watchlist

Finalists

Matt Barkley, QB, So Cal Senior

Marcus Lattimore, RB, USC, Junior

Denard Robinson, QB, UM, Senior

Montee Ball, RB, UW, Senior

Runners up

Geno Smith, QB, WVU, Senior

Robert Woods, WR, USC, Junior

Aaron Murray, QB, UGA, Junior

Rex Burkhead, RB, NU, Senior

Logan Thomas, QB, VT, Senior

Collin Klein, QB, KSU, Senior

Others contending

Darron Thomas, QB, Oregon, Senior

Landry Jones, QB, OU, Senior

Sammy Dropkins, WR, Clempson, Sophomore

Some RB's from Oregon

Another guy that wears orange

Ryan Aplin, QB, Ark St, Senior

Long shots

Braxton Miller, QB, OSU, Sophomore

Keith Price, QB, Washington, Junior

Keenen Allen, WR, Cal, Junior

Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas, Junior

Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas, Senior

Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State, Junior

 

[MLB 51]

Here's my take.Brain Kelly at #9 is crap. He should be on the hot seat list. No love for BO is BS as well. Kirk Ferentz on the hot seat list yet he comes in higher than Bo on The B!G list of coaches. As far as the heisman goes. I take Ball over all of them with Lattimore a real close second. Even though Ball runs like a girl.

 

[Excel]

Here's my take.Brain Kelly at #9 is crap. He should be on the hot seat list. No love for BO is BS as well. Kirk Ferentz on the hot seat list yet he comes in higher than Bo on The B!G list of coaches. As far as the heisman goes. I take Ball over all of them with Lattimore a real close second. Even though Ball runs like a girl.

I see a whole lot to hate on in these lists...the coach lists especially but the authors come out and say "One thing to keep in mind - the record is not always indicative of where a coach should rank in a conference" to cover for it. Anyhow, Hoke being that highly ranked is a joke but I will give respect where its due and say Ferentz and Fitzgerald are indeed great coaches.

Their top 25 is also faulty. I know its early but I wish they'd get away from pandering to fan bases in making these things...Michigan and FSU? No..

As far as the Heisman goes I don't know what to think. I feel like it'll be another year where someone we don't expect impresses the nation and wins it...I doubt Ball has near the season he had last year and Lattimore's knee worries me, he finally gets to start cutting again in May...

 

[MLB 51]

I think Ball has as good or even better year than last. Should get a few more touches tthis year without Wilson in the back field and having a new QB who knows what happens.

 

[Omaha-Husker]

I still don't get MSU being so highly ranked all over the place. They will have a great defense, but lose 4 starting O-Linemen, starting QB, starting RB and their top 4 receivers.

That is assuming a lot for up coming talent on that side of the ball.

 

[Muck]

Did it really say "Warshington"?

 

[Excel]

Phil Steele's projected 2012 preseason top 10

1. LSU

2. Southern California

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Oklahoma

6. Georgia

7. Michigan

8. Florida State

9. Arkansas

10. West Virginia

AP preseason 2012 top 24

1. LSU

2. Southern California

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Oklahoma

6. Georgia

7. Arkansas

8. Michigan

9. Florida State

10. South Carolina

11. West Virginia

12. Michigan State

13. Kansas State

14. Clemson

15. TCU

16. Wisconsin

17. Virginia Tech

18. Ohio State

19. Nebraska

20. Stanford

21. Boise State

22. Texas

23. Oklahoma State

24. Florida

Orlando Sentinel

1. Southern California

2. LSU

3. Oregon

4. Alabama

5. Oklahoma

6. Georgia

7. Florida State

8. Michigan

9. South Carolina

10. Ohio State

11. Kansas State

12. Michigan State

13. Arkansas

14. Nebraska

15. Clemson

16. Auburn

17. Virginia Tech

18. West Virginia

19. Texas

20. TCU

21. Wisconsin

22. Texas A&M

23. Warshington

24. Baylor

25. Boise State

Sports Illustrated

1. LSU

2. Southern California

3. Oregon

4. Arkansas

5. Alabama

6. Michigan State

7. South Carolina

8. Oklahoma

9. Georgia

10. TCU

11. Michigan

12. Wisconsin

13. West Virginia

14. Clemson

15. Kansas State

16. Nebraska

17. Florida State

18. Virginia Tech

19. Boise State

20. Stanford

21. Texas

22. Notre Dame

23. Auburn

24. Oklahoma State

25. Georgia Tech

ESPN

1. Southern California

2. Alabama

3. LSU

4. Oklahoma

5. Georgia

6. Oregon

7. West Virginia

8. Florida State

9. Michigan State

10. South Carolina

11. Arkansas

12. Kansas State

13. Stanford

14. Michigan

15. TCU

16. Ohio State

17. Nebraska

18. Wisconsin

19. Oklahoma State

20. Virginia Tech

21. Boise State

22. Texas

23. Clemson

24. Notre Dame

25. Florida

 

[Excel]

Big Ten composite

Michigan: 7, 7, 8, 8, 11, 14 Average: 9

Michigan State: 14, 12, 12, 6, 9 Average: 11

Ohio State: 10, 18, 10, 16 Average: 14

Nebraska: 17, 19, 14, 16, 17 Average: 17

Wisconsin: 22, 16, 21, 12, 18 Average: 18

Heisman watchlists

Scout

1. Matt Barkley, QB, Southern California

2. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin

3. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

4. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan

5. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina

6. Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

7. Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

8. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clempson

9. Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU

10. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

11. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

12. Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

13. Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas

14. Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

15. Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia

USA Today

1. Matt Barkley, QB, Southern California

2. Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina

3. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin

4. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan

5. Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU

6. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

7. Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

8. Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

National Football Post

1. Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin

2. Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU

3. Matt Barkley, QB, Southern California

4. Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

5. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan

Odds setter Danny Sheridan

Matt Barkley: 5:1

Montee Ball: 6:1

Landry Jones: 7:1

Denard Robinson: 7:1

Geno Smith: 10:1

Aaron Murray: 12:1

Marcus Lattimore: 12:1

Tyler Wilson: 15:1

Dayne Crist: 25:1

De'Anthony Thomas: 25:1

Rex Burkhead 25:1

Sammy Dropkins: 25:1

AJ McCarron: 30:1

Keith Price: 40:1

 

[Excel]

"Predictive trends"

2011 best case / worst case by team

Michigan State

Four wins by one score or less, one loss.

Best case: 12-2, Worst case: 7-6

Michigan

Three wins by one score or less, zero losses.

Best case: 11-2, Worst case: 8-5

Nebraska

Two wins by one score or less, one loss.

Best case: 11-2, Worst case: 8-5

Iowa

One win by one score or less, two losses.

Best case: 9-4, Worst case: 6-7

Northwestern

Two wins by one score or less, two losses.

Best case: 8-5. Worst case: 4-8

Minnesota

One win by one score or less, three losses.

Best case: 6-6, Worst case: 2-10

Wisconsin

One win by one score or less, three losses.

Best case: 14-0, Worst case: 10-4

Penn State

Five wins by one score or less, one loss.

Best case: 10-3, Worst case: 4-8

Purdue

Four wins by one score or less, two losses.

Best case: 11-2, Worst case: 5-7

Ohio State

Two wins by one score or less, four losses.

Best case: 11-2, Worst case: 4-8

Illinois

Four wins by one score or less, one loss.

Best case: 8-5, Worst case: 4-8

Indiana

Zero wins by one score or less, four losses.

Best case: 5-7, Indiana earned its worst possible record.

Turnover margin

4. Wisconsin +16

25. Michigan +7

25. Michigan State +7

30. Ohio State +5

40. Northwestern +3

52. Iowa +1

52. Penn State +1

52. Purdue +1

67. Nebraska -1

78. Indiana -2

95. Illinois -6

100. Minnesota -8

Returning starters

1. Indiana 19 - 8 Offense, 9 Defense, 2 ST

2. Ohio State 18 - 7 Offense, 9 Defense, 2 ST

3. Michigan 16 - 7 Offense, 7 Defense, 2 ST

3. Nebraska 16 - 7 Offense, 7 Defense, 2 ST

3. Purdue 16 - 8 Offense, 7 Defense, 1 ST

6. Illinois 14 - 6 Offense, 7 Defense, 1 ST

6. Michigan State 14 - 4 Offense, 8 Defense, 2 ST

8. Minnesota 13 - 6 Offense, 5 Defense, 2 ST

9. Iowa 12 - 6 Offense, 5 Defense, 1 ST

9. Northwestern 12 - 5 Offense, 5 Defense 2 ST

9. Penn State 12 - 5 Offense, 5 Defense, 2 ST

12. Wisconsin 10 - 4 Offense, 6 Defense, 0 ST

 

[HuskerShark]

"Predictive trends"

2011 best case / worst case by team

Wisconsin

One win by one score or less, three losses.

Best case: 14-0, Worst case: 10-4

I've gotta say, this one is puzzling. Why would Wisconsin be the only team in the B1G whose best case is an undefeated season?... I'm not saying it's wrong, but if Wisconsin's best case is 14-0, then so is Nebraska's, Michigan's, Michigan State's, and Ohio State's.

 

[Excel]

Best case / Worst case is an annual feature in Phil Steele's college football preview magazine. Because it doesn't come out until early June I went ahead and figured out what it would say by using his rules;

Step one: determine how many close games, within a touchdown, a team played.

Step two: assume that team won every one of those close games, this is that team's best case scenario for the previous year.

Step three: assume that team lost every one of those close games, this is that team's worst case scenario for the previous year.

This thought experiment allows fans to indulge in a "What if my team could have scored/stopped rival x in game y?" adventure.

Philosophically yes, every team's best case scenario would be to go undefeated but using these rules only Wisconsin had that as an actual "best case." By losing three close games, Michigan State, Ohio State and Oregon and then imagining that they did win those games, they'd be 14-0.

Because of blowouts losses to Wisconsin, Michigan and kind of to USC, Nebraska cannot, at least in this experiment, chalk those up as wins in imagining a "best case" for last year.

A similar story goes for Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State.

Not only can this just be fun to think about its also somewhat telling....lets say you blame many of your team's losses on mental errors due to inexperience in close games, then you look down and see you have a heap of starters returning...well now this experiment becomes predictive...one could venture to say that your team will do much better next year than they did last year. For example, I would say, just from those two bits of information (returning starters and best case/worst case) that both Indiana and Ohio State will do much better next year than they did this past year. Penn State and Michigan State will drop.

 

[HuskerShark]

Gotcha. I thought this was for the 2012 football season.

 

[Excel]

Sports Illustrated just came out with their "Post Spring" rankings today. I'm digging them...

1. LSU

2. Southern California

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Oklahoma

6. Wisconsin

7. South Carolina

8. Georgia

9. West Virginia

10. Michigan State

11. TCU

12. Arkansas

13. Michigan

14. Stanford

15. Kansas State

16. Clemson

17. Florida State

18. Nebraska

19. Virginia Tech

20. Boise State

21. Texas

22. Auburn

23. Warshington

24. Oklahoma State

25. Georgia Tech

 

[huKSer]

Sports Illustrated just came out with their "Post Spring" rankings today. I'm digging them...

1. LSU

2. Southern California

3. Alabama

4. Oregon

5. Oklahoma

6. Wisconsin

7. South Carolina

8. Georgia

9. West Virginia

10. Michigan State

11. TCU

12. Arkansas

13. Michigan

14. Stanford

15. Kansas State

16. Clemson

17. Florida State

18. Nebraska

19. Virginia Tech

20. Boise State

21. Texas

22. Auburn

23. Warshington

24. Oklahoma State

25. Georgia Tech

So KSUcks move up 6 spots because Klein calls his own plays and 59 of them are passes?

 

[Excel]

Number six is the biggest stretch up there. Second to last nationally in returning starters...