billdozer15
All-Conference
You are still assuming the BCS will remain. I am assuming a playoff will form and the top 25 will become irrelevant. If want invited to the dance you are going to need to be a winner of one of these conferences.
Next up: Notre Dame?
- Thread starter Husker Runner
- Start date
billdozer15
All-Conference
Absolutely, this all could have been avoided if ND would have just joined the Big10. If someone wants to blame the collapse of college football as we know it, it is ND. This whole thing is starting just to pigeon hole ND into joining the Big10. Once the B10, SEC, ACC rip apart the Big East ND has no other choice at that point.
EbylHusker
Banned
I've already said that once the BCS goes away, ND probably won't have much of a choice. I don't think that is happening until 2015, though. Which ND stays independent until then.
I get what you're saying here (that the Irish are as stubborn as it gets, which is absolutely the truth), and that they'll hold out as long possible. From there, you're surmising that Notre Dame will wait until the BCS is gone to finally join a conference, because they'll have to.
So my question back to that is: what conference? Everyone will be at 16. No room left.
Things are going to start happening fast now. Just look at the Big 12. Colorado announces they're going to the Pac-10. Nebraska then pulls the trigger a day later and says they're out. Now Texas has a conference call on Tuesday.
This is all about Notre Dame. The Big Ten wants Notre Dame, the Irish are holding out. So now, the Big Ten is playing this colossal game of Jenga, pulling pieces out. They floated Nebraska and Missouri out there early to shake things up. The Irish didn't move. So the Big Ten made the best pick (Nebraska) and started making motions. Everyone in the Big 12 freaked, and Colorado jumped ship. That particular Jenga stack is now falling.
Will that be enough? Let's find out. If not, the next Jenga game happens with the Big East. The Big Ten will start making motions there. ACC and SEC will then fast-track a deal, just like Pac-10/Colorado, but this time with two teams. Big Ten will then go in and make a grab as well (probably Rutgers). That will cause the Big East to crumble as well.
Then what? The Big Ten will be up to 13 at that point, and they won't stay uneven for long. Hell, they might even take two Big East teams (Syracuse?) and then there are only two spots left. At that point, there's going to be some major grabbing going on, as all the conferences scramble to reach the inevitable "super conference" mark. The Big Ten will hold out as long as possible, but we're not going to miss out on decent fits like Missouri, Kansas, Maryland, etc. for too long. Otherwise, we'll end up with someone like Cincinnati.
Notre Dame I think sees the writing on the wall. Or at least their admins do, and that's all that matters. The die-hard fans can threaten all they want, give up their season tickets, etc. But who cares? You know how long you have to wait for tickets? They'd be snatched up within 10 seconds. And the money they'd make from the BTN would more than make up for some stubborn Domers withholding alumni donations.
Notre Dame will join, and it will happen within the next six months (watch the Big East). Count on it.
sd'sker
Banned
first, even though CU left first, they were following NU's lead.
second, i completely agree with you, and this is the same logic i used for NU to go to the big 10, go now or you'll never get to go. ND probably wants to stay independent because it is so easy for them to qualify for a bcs game, but it is easier to miss the boat. they would be wise to move now and secure a spot rather than squeeze every last penny they can being independent and then be stuck as an independent when the well dries up.
EbylHusker
Banned
I'll be watching. Ain't happening in 6 months, especially since the Big 10 is probably expanding in stages. But yeah, I've got nothing else to add other than I'm pretty sure you're wrong, you're pretty sure I'm wrong, and anything else is just an epenis contest. So I'll sit and wait and see who ends up being right.
Edit - Feel free to bookmark this thread and revisit in 6 months (or sooner if ND caves before then).
Edit - Feel free to bookmark this thread and revisit in 6 months (or sooner if ND caves before then).
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Husker Runner
Starter
Maybe so, but I highly doubt their negotiating strength will ever better than it is right now; you are right on when you say "ND probably won't have much of a choice." That is not a way to negotiate with power. Yes, the Big 10 will take them at any time, but if they know ND doesn't have a choice, they won't need to give as much of a sweetheart deal as they would give now. Like I said, ND better think hard about their next move. College football is going to look a lot different in three years.
EDIT: You posted while I was typing...yes, I suppose it's just an epenis contest. LOL. Hard to know what the crazy Irish will do.
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billdozer15
All-Conference
This is an interesting perdicament that ND admin has themselves in. If they fold and join a conference now they probably will all be fired. However, if they hold out to be the last team in, its quite possible the Big10 could force them into a situation where they have to make concessions to get in and the fan base will then be up in arms because the admin didnt do something sooner. Either way ND is in a tough spot. Damned if you do, damned if you dont. Arrogance is a b!^@h.
Well, Notre Dame is staying independent for two reasons:
1. They applied numerous times for admission to the Big Ten (then "Western Conference") and were denied by U of M's chicken coach Fielding Yost (thanks a lot, skunkbears), so they adopted a "play anyone, anywhere" type of attitude. That's important to them, it's part of their identity.
2. They feel safe in the notion that, should they ever need a conference, the Big Ten will be there.
So to point number one...sorry Notre Dame. If it helps, we'll have U of M apologize for their idiot coach at your 50 yard line.
To point number two...that option might not be around any longer. If you wait past the Big East crumble, and the Big Ten is up to 14-15 teams...you might want to start contingency plans for not having an athletic program...
Vitually every reason people have put up for ND remaining independant here are false.
They don't need the money due to thier NBC TV contract. False.
Thier current TV contract with NBC ends in a few years. d!(k Ebersol from NBC sports said at the time they singed the latest extension that in order for this to be a sucessful relationship ND doesn't need to win national titles, they just need to consistently finish in the top 10. ND has finished in the top ten exactly ZERO times sense he said that. With the creation of these super conferences NBC is going to have to come to a realization that if THEY want to stay relevant in college football they will have to move in a new direction when the current TV deal is up (2015 I believe) they need more than just ND. Who are they going to get? The B10 already has the B10 network along with ABC and ESPN. The SEC has agreements with ESPN and CBS and are in talks about their own SEC network. Fox Sports has already made the move into college football by carrying BCS bowl games, it's hard to imagine they are going to sit on the sidelines here. There are two networks without major conference affiliation (NBC and FOX) and there are two conferences without large media deals (the Pac Whatever, and whatever the BigEast ACC merger becomes), can you honestly imagine that NBC (or any other major network for that matter) would put all thier eggs in the ND football basket given the circumstances. In my opinion ND will be lucky to secure a regional cable deal like Comcast Sports Chicago or Fox Sports Midwest. Even if they do secure a similar deal with NBC (or anyone else) the B10 network football share is around 20 million per season and the ND deal is worth less than 10 million per, thats a lot of money to walk away from.
They can schedule whoever they want. False.
In previous years ND had been able to schedule virtually whomever they wanted. As conferences scrable to re-align that is going to be a MUCH more difficult task. With the advent of "superconferences" all bowl games and eventually the college playoffs (I feel strongly this is where we are going) will be determined by where you finish in your conference, and conference schedules will likely be 8-10 game schedules (if you count conf title games). As this happens more teams are going to realize that it makes ZERO sense to schedule difficult teams for thier out of conference schedules. More and more teams will adopt the Nebraska *cough cough* I mean Florida schedule method of playing 3 games against Directional Occupational U before they get into the conference schedule. It is essentially a pre-season schedule now in that they don't need SOS to compete (this is especially true of we end up with playoffs) anymore, they just need wins and they need to work the kinks out of thier team. In addition all this conference realignment is going to mean that many OTHER schools are going to be making major changes to thier own schedule to accomidate all the new conference schedules. How long do you think it will take USC to call ND and say "sorry guys, but we cant play in 2014 anymore we have a hot date with Colorado".
Now consider the Big East and Big10 situations. The B10 is in a position to move to 16 teams. It can't get any bigger the B10 can easily say to ND "listen domers it's now or never". The Big East is poised to take in the leftovers from the former B12 along with what's left of the ACC (after the SEC raids them to get to 16) and they end up with a superconference of 16 teams in football and 20 in basketball. They get to say to ND "listen domers either you are all in or all out, we don't have room for this bball only BS anymore." Given the situation does anyone believe ND would chose the Big East over the B10?
Essentially what all this boils down to is the feasability of ND remaining independant and successfull beyond the next few years is virtually impossible. If they don't joing the B10 now they will very likely end up being a football program without a major source of TV revenue, without a major media presence, unable to schedule quality games, who will try and remain relevent on tradition alone. Now you could say well so what, if all that happens who's to say it won't work. I say it won't work, because it hasn't worked before.
If they don't join the B10 ND runs the very real risk of ending up like the Army and Navy football programs, once proud programs that are relegated to one major moment a year when they play each other that in reality, is little more than a sideshow.
They don't need the money due to thier NBC TV contract. False.
Thier current TV contract with NBC ends in a few years. d!(k Ebersol from NBC sports said at the time they singed the latest extension that in order for this to be a sucessful relationship ND doesn't need to win national titles, they just need to consistently finish in the top 10. ND has finished in the top ten exactly ZERO times sense he said that. With the creation of these super conferences NBC is going to have to come to a realization that if THEY want to stay relevant in college football they will have to move in a new direction when the current TV deal is up (2015 I believe) they need more than just ND. Who are they going to get? The B10 already has the B10 network along with ABC and ESPN. The SEC has agreements with ESPN and CBS and are in talks about their own SEC network. Fox Sports has already made the move into college football by carrying BCS bowl games, it's hard to imagine they are going to sit on the sidelines here. There are two networks without major conference affiliation (NBC and FOX) and there are two conferences without large media deals (the Pac Whatever, and whatever the BigEast ACC merger becomes), can you honestly imagine that NBC (or any other major network for that matter) would put all thier eggs in the ND football basket given the circumstances. In my opinion ND will be lucky to secure a regional cable deal like Comcast Sports Chicago or Fox Sports Midwest. Even if they do secure a similar deal with NBC (or anyone else) the B10 network football share is around 20 million per season and the ND deal is worth less than 10 million per, thats a lot of money to walk away from.
They can schedule whoever they want. False.
In previous years ND had been able to schedule virtually whomever they wanted. As conferences scrable to re-align that is going to be a MUCH more difficult task. With the advent of "superconferences" all bowl games and eventually the college playoffs (I feel strongly this is where we are going) will be determined by where you finish in your conference, and conference schedules will likely be 8-10 game schedules (if you count conf title games). As this happens more teams are going to realize that it makes ZERO sense to schedule difficult teams for thier out of conference schedules. More and more teams will adopt the Nebraska *cough cough* I mean Florida schedule method of playing 3 games against Directional Occupational U before they get into the conference schedule. It is essentially a pre-season schedule now in that they don't need SOS to compete (this is especially true of we end up with playoffs) anymore, they just need wins and they need to work the kinks out of thier team. In addition all this conference realignment is going to mean that many OTHER schools are going to be making major changes to thier own schedule to accomidate all the new conference schedules. How long do you think it will take USC to call ND and say "sorry guys, but we cant play in 2014 anymore we have a hot date with Colorado".
Now consider the Big East and Big10 situations. The B10 is in a position to move to 16 teams. It can't get any bigger the B10 can easily say to ND "listen domers it's now or never". The Big East is poised to take in the leftovers from the former B12 along with what's left of the ACC (after the SEC raids them to get to 16) and they end up with a superconference of 16 teams in football and 20 in basketball. They get to say to ND "listen domers either you are all in or all out, we don't have room for this bball only BS anymore." Given the situation does anyone believe ND would chose the Big East over the B10?
Essentially what all this boils down to is the feasability of ND remaining independant and successfull beyond the next few years is virtually impossible. If they don't joing the B10 now they will very likely end up being a football program without a major source of TV revenue, without a major media presence, unable to schedule quality games, who will try and remain relevent on tradition alone. Now you could say well so what, if all that happens who's to say it won't work. I say it won't work, because it hasn't worked before.
If they don't join the B10 ND runs the very real risk of ending up like the Army and Navy football programs, once proud programs that are relegated to one major moment a year when they play each other that in reality, is little more than a sideshow.
EbylHusker
Banned
And yet you're still talking a few years out as the NBC and BCS contracts come to an end. Funny how I have never said ND will remain independent forever, but rather they will not be joining the Big 10 immediately. So all that huge post was pretty much wasted since it's not even on point.
Edit - And btw, ND is very well off in terms of funding. They don't get everything, or even close, from their NBC contract. That school has plenty of money coming in from everywhere. That is beside the point, though, beyond my saying they're not having to worry about money.
Edit - And btw, ND is very well off in terms of funding. They don't get everything, or even close, from their NBC contract. That school has plenty of money coming in from everywhere. That is beside the point, though, beyond my saying they're not having to worry about money.
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muffler dragon
Four-Star Recruit
IF ND's football program listened to the wishes of their academic personnel; then this would have been done a LONG time ago.
I never said they werent in good shape in regards to thier endowment. The bigger issue than TV money is TV expsore. If they aren't on TV around the country it's hard to expose people to the program which makes it hard to recruit on a national level which they need to do in order to survive. That problem is only magnified by thier stingient admission stadards.
Regarding joining immediately it's arguing semantics. Just cause you guys were able to bail on the B12 and begin Big10 play starting in 2011 doesn't mean everyone will. Even if they don't play thier first game in conference until 2016 (which I doubt) they are going to have to make that decision very shortly. Also don't think for a second the B10 would bat an eye at letting ND join the leage AND let them continue to recieve thier piss ant little NBC contract until it expires. They aren't going to let that get in the way.
Regarding joining immediately it's arguing semantics. Just cause you guys were able to bail on the B12 and begin Big10 play starting in 2011 doesn't mean everyone will. Even if they don't play thier first game in conference until 2016 (which I doubt) they are going to have to make that decision very shortly. Also don't think for a second the B10 would bat an eye at letting ND join the leage AND let them continue to recieve thier piss ant little NBC contract until it expires. They aren't going to let that get in the way.