NU versus UW - new and improved z-score edition

beorach

beorach

Special Teams Player
The numbers below are percentile ratings for team stats, relative to those for all 130 FBS teams counting all games played through last weekend.  Games against lower division opponents (FCS) have not been included.  I may start to reduce the sample size to only games played between conference opponents in a week or two.  If I was to average all the percentile averages for all the individual (nine) categories, NU's stats are 36th (up from 25th before the Purdue game) percentile overall and Wisconsin's are 79th.

Passing Defense

completions per game: 20 to 19 (after three and now 4 games played for the good guys) with UW posting 87 (after having played four games)

percentage:                  19 to 36, 64

yards per attempt:        66 to 65, 65

touchdowns per game: 43 to 59, 71

passer rating:                46 to 57, 67

yards per game:            49 to 39, 86

Passing Offense

completions per game: 35 to 52, 25

percentage:                  68 to 66, 79

yards per attempt:        18 to 33, 74

touchdowns per game: 17 to 32, 54

passer rating:                22 to 34, 80

yards per game:            15 to 36, 33

Rushing Defense

yards per carry:             49 to 47, 46

touchdowns per game:  15 to 12, 92

yards per game:            51 to 52, 72

Rushing Offense

yards per carry:              36 to 68, 92

touchdowns per game:  25 to 39, 83

yards per game:             51 to 73, 96

Scoring Defense

touchdowns per game:  14 to 21, 92

points per game:            9 to 14, 93

Scoring Offense

touchdowns per game:  11 to 25, 68

points per game:            9 to 21, 65

Total Defense

yards per play:               58 to 54, 58

yards per game:             50 to 44, 89

plays per game:              36 to 32, 98

Total Offense

yards per play:               18 to 46, 86

yards per game:             19 to 56, 82

plays per game:             46 to 66, 47

Turnover Margin

fumbles gained per game:           21 to 15, 81

interceptions gained per game:   33 to 26, 65

turnovers gained per game:        19 to 11, 82

fumbles lost per game:                5 to 16, 66

interceptions lost per game:        11 to 20, 73

turnovers lost per game:              3 to 12, 76

turnover margin per game:          3 to 5, 86

p.s. - A z-score is a numerical measurement of a value's relationship to the mean in a group of values. If a Z-score is 0, it represents the score as identical to the mean score.  I convert the z-scores for all the stats listed above to percentiles so we can all understand the nature of that value better.

 
Here are the rankings of all FBS teams, per the average z-score rating of all those (9) categories listed above.  Mathematically, I'm averaging the averages for all those to make this list.

Rk        TEAM                              Avg. Avg. Z-Score (all 9 categories)














1


Alabama


1.40




2


UCF


1.11




3


Ohio State


1.08




4


Georgia


0.95




5


Boise State


0.91




6


Michigan


0.88




7


Penn State


0.87




8


North Texas


0.85




9


Oklahoma


0.82




10


North Carolina State


0.81




11


Wisconsin


0.81




12


Appalachian State


0.78




13


Clemson


0.76




14


Colorado


0.71




15


Cincinnati


0.70




16


Miami (Florida)


0.65




17


West Virginia


0.62




18


Notre Dame


0.60




19


Kentucky


0.60




20


Fresno State


0.58




21


Washington State


0.58




22


Oregon


0.56




23


Maryland


0.56




24


Florida


0.49




25


LSU


0.48




26


Arizona State


0.47




27


Syracuse


0.45




28


Indiana


0.43




29


Washington


0.42




30


East Carolina


0.40




31


Mississippi State


0.40




32


Kansas


0.40




33


Utah State


0.38




34


Memphis


0.38




35


Auburn


0.35




36


Oklahoma State


0.35




37


Texas


0.34




38


Houston


0.34




39


Boston College


0.34




40


Missouri


0.31




41


Michigan State


0.28




42


Army


0.28




43


Virginia Tech


0.28




44


South Carolina


0.24




45


Iowa


0.22




46


South Florida


0.21




47


Vanderbilt


0.20




48


UAB


0.19




49


Buffalo


0.19




50


Virginia


0.19




51


Purdue


0.17




52


Georgia Tech


0.15




53


Minnesota


0.15




54


Duke


0.15




55


Southern Mississippi


0.13




56


Texas Tech


0.12




57


Temple


0.11




58


Texas A&M


0.10




59


Hawai'i


0.06




60


Troy


0.03




61


Baylor


0.02




62


California


0.01




63


Florida International


-0.01




64


UNLV


-0.02




65


Stanford


-0.03




66


TCU


-0.03




67


Arizona


-0.03




68


Ohio


-0.05




69


Louisiana Tech


-0.05




70


USC


-0.08




71


Western Michigan


-0.08




72


Georgia Southern


-0.08




73


Wake Forest


-0.09




74


Utah


-0.10




75


Northwestern


-0.10




76


Western Kentucky


-0.10




77


Iowa State


-0.10




78


San Diego State


-0.10




79


Liberty


-0.11




80


Navy


-0.11




81


Arkansas State


-0.12




82


Ball State


-0.15




83


Marshall


-0.19




84


Eastern Michigan


-0.19




85


Nevada


-0.22




86


Florida State


-0.25




87


Northern Illinois


-0.26




88


Miami (Ohio)


-0.29




89


Mississippi


-0.30




90


Tulane


-0.32




91


Coastal Carolina


-0.32




92


BYU


-0.33




93


Akron


-0.36




94


Tulsa


-0.36




95


Nebraska


-0.36




96


New Mexico


-0.39




97


Air Force


-0.39




98


Kansas State


-0.40




99


North Carolina


-0.42




100


Arkansas


-0.43




101


Old Dominion


-0.43




102


Tennessee


-0.44




103


Illinois


-0.47




104


Wyoming


-0.47




105


Texas State


-0.49




106


Florida Atlantic


-0.51




107


Toledo


-0.56




108


Central Michigan


-0.57




109


Pittsburgh


-0.57




110


Charlotte


-0.59




111


UTEP


-0.59




112


Georgia State


-0.61




113


UTSA


-0.61




114


Colorado State


-0.63




115


San Jose State


-0.64




116


SMU


-0.65




117


Louisiana-Monroe


-0.65




118


UCLA


-0.67




119


South Alabama


-0.68




120


Louisville


-0.70




121


Middle Tennessee


-0.72




122


Rice


-0.79




123


Massachusetts


-0.79




124


Oregon State


-0.82




125


New Mexico State


-0.83




126


Rutgers


-0.83




127


Kent State


-0.97




128


Bowling Green


-1.08




129


Louisiana-Lafayette


-1.14




130


Connecticut


-1.64




 
Here are the defensive rankings per the same method (but just considering four of the nine categories listed in the OP above)...

Rk         TEAM                                Avg. Avg. Z-Score (4 defensive categories)














1


Michigan


1.44




2


Kentucky


1.28




3


Iowa


1.16




4


Auburn


1.12




5


Cincinnati


1.12




6


Alabama


1.12




7


Washington State


1.11




8


Washington


1.05




9


Miami (Florida)


1.02




10


North Texas


1.00




11


Mississippi State


0.99




12


Clemson


0.99




13


Wisconsin


0.97




14


Florida


0.94




15


North Carolina State


0.90




16


Minnesota


0.88




17


Georgia


0.86




18


Fresno State


0.84




19


Appalachian State


0.79




20


Michigan State


0.78




21


Utah


0.78




22


Notre Dame


0.76




23


Iowa State


0.76




24


Maryland


0.75




25


LSU


0.73




26


Texas


0.73




27


Southern Mississippi


0.69




28


Indiana


0.68




29


East Carolina


0.65




30


Boise State


0.63




31


Ohio State


0.63




32


West Virginia


0.62




33


Arizona State


0.58




34


TCU


0.55




35


Vanderbilt


0.54




36


Florida State


0.53




37


Colorado


0.52




38


South Carolina


0.52




39


Northern Illinois


0.51




40


Penn State


0.50




41


Virginia


0.46




42


Duke


0.44




43


California


0.42




44


San Diego State


0.37




45


Army


0.36




46


Western Kentucky


0.33




47


Oregon


0.33




48


UAB


0.27




49


Temple


0.26




50


Arkansas


0.24




51


Kansas


0.23




52


Buffalo


0.21




53


Texas A&M


0.21




54


USC


0.21




55


Northwestern


0.20




56


UCF


0.16




57


Stanford


0.16




58


Oklahoma


0.15




59


Virginia Tech


0.13




60


Utah State


0.12




61


Marshall


0.12




62


Central Michigan


0.09




63


Texas State


0.08




64


Tulsa


0.04




65


South Florida


0.03




66


Miami (Ohio)


0.02




67


Kansas State


0.01




68


Eastern Michigan


0.00




69


Oklahoma State


-0.01




70


BYU


-0.02




71


Syracuse


-0.03




72


Missouri


-0.03




73


Boston College


-0.03




74


Baylor


-0.05




75


Tennessee


-0.06




76


Louisiana Tech


-0.07




77


Arizona


-0.09




78


Purdue


-0.10




79


Wyoming


-0.12




80


Memphis


-0.15




81


Florida International


-0.16




82


Troy


-0.17




83


North Carolina


-0.18




84


Akron


-0.18




85


UTEP


-0.21




86


UTSA


-0.23




87


UNLV


-0.23




88


Louisville


-0.23




89


Georgia Southern


-0.25




90


Arkansas State


-0.27




91


Georgia Tech


-0.31




92


Ball State


-0.32




93


Charlotte


-0.34




94


Tulane


-0.35




95


Nebraska


-0.41




96


New Mexico State


-0.43




97


Navy


-0.50




98


Rutgers


-0.51




99


Middle Tennessee


-0.54




100


UCLA


-0.55




101


Nevada


-0.57




102


San Jose State


-0.58




103


Western Michigan


-0.61




104


Wake Forest


-0.63




105


Liberty


-0.63




106


SMU


-0.63




107


Pittsburgh


-0.67




108


Hawai'i


-0.68




109


Mississippi


-0.75




110


Air Force


-0.76




111


Old Dominion


-0.81




112


Coastal Carolina


-0.82




113


Louisiana-Monroe


-0.83




114


Texas Tech


-0.84




115


New Mexico


-0.87




116


Ohio


-0.92




117


Houston


-0.93




118


Colorado State


-1.01




119


Georgia State


-1.07




120


South Alabama


-1.09




121


Illinois


-1.14




122


Florida Atlantic


-1.16




123


Rice


-1.36




124


Toledo


-1.47




125


Massachusetts


-1.48




126


Bowling Green


-1.48




127


Kent State


-1.62




128


Oregon State


-1.68




129


Louisiana-Lafayette


-1.88




130


Connecticut


-2.56






 
Last edited by a moderator:
Lets see the Z rating for a few ALL TIME TEAMS and how they rank. Lets put the Z to the test. Alabama has dominated the decade but his current team is the only one that belongs in that group below if they finish the year like they are playing now.

95 Huskers

01 Miami

04 USC

05 Texas

97 Huskers

 
This is the offensive pecking order, then, using just the 4 offensive categories...

Rk           TEAM                        Avg. Avg. Z-Score (4 offensive categories)














1


UCF


1.93




2


Alabama


1.85




3


Oklahoma


1.63




4


Ohio State


1.62




5


Houston


1.61




6


Penn State


1.45




7


Boise State


1.25




8


Texas Tech


1.24




9


Appalachian State


1.08




10


Memphis


1.05




11


Georgia


1.00




12


Colorado


0.95




13


Oregon


0.90




14


Hawai'i


0.86




15


Missouri


0.86




16


Oklahoma State


0.85




17


Clemson


0.83




18


West Virginia


0.83




19


Ohio


0.82




20


Syracuse


0.78




21


North Texas


0.72




22


North Carolina State


0.69




23


Wisconsin


0.66




24


Boston College


0.66




25


Georgia Tech


0.63




26


Utah State


0.62




27


Purdue


0.54




28


Michigan


0.50




29


Wake Forest


0.49




30


Western Michigan


0.47




31


Notre Dame


0.45




32


Fresno State


0.41




33


South Florida


0.39




34


Liberty


0.38




35


Washington State


0.38




36


Cincinnati


0.38




37


Miami (Florida)


0.36




38


Arizona State


0.30




39


East Carolina


0.30




40


Maryland


0.30




41


Troy


0.28




42


Army


0.28




43


UNLV


0.25




44


Baylor


0.25




45


Toledo


0.22




46


Virginia Tech


0.21




47


South Carolina


0.20




48


LSU


0.20




49


Florida Atlantic


0.20




50


Texas A&M


0.19




51


Florida International


0.19




52


Buffalo


0.18




53


Indiana


0.16




54


Coastal Carolina


0.15




55


Kansas


0.14




56


Navy


0.13




57


Nevada


0.12




58


Kentucky


0.10




59


Mississippi


0.08




60


Arizona


0.06




61


New Mexico


0.05




62


UAB


0.04




63


Virginia


0.02




64


Texas


-0.01




65


Illinois


-0.02




66


Oregon State


-0.06




67


Temple


-0.08




68


Michigan State


-0.09




69


Washington


-0.11




70


Massachusetts


-0.12




71


Ball State


-0.12




72


Nebraska


-0.13




73


Florida


-0.13




74


Mississippi State


-0.14




75


Georgia Southern


-0.17




76


Air Force


-0.17




77


Vanderbilt


-0.17




78


Arkansas State


-0.18




79


TCU


-0.18




80


Louisiana Tech


-0.19




81


Old Dominion


-0.20




82


Southern Mississippi


-0.22




83


USC


-0.23




84


Duke


-0.28




85


Rice


-0.29




86


Georgia State


-0.29




87


California


-0.35




88


Colorado State


-0.36




89


Marshall


-0.37




90


Northwestern


-0.38




91


Tulane


-0.39




92


North Carolina


-0.41




93


South Alabama


-0.42




94


Kent State


-0.46




95


Stanford


-0.46




96


Minnesota


-0.48




97


Tulsa


-0.50




98


Louisiana-Monroe


-0.51




99


Eastern Michigan


-0.51




100


Auburn


-0.51




101


Western Kentucky


-0.55




102


Pittsburgh


-0.57




103


Tennessee


-0.59




104


San Diego State


-0.59




105


Iowa


-0.62




106


Louisiana-Lafayette


-0.64




107


Miami (Ohio)


-0.70




108


Florida State


-0.72




109


Bowling Green


-0.77




110


BYU


-0.81




111


Middle Tennessee


-0.84




112


Connecticut


-0.86




113


Akron


-0.90




114


Utah


-0.91




115


UCLA


-0.92




116


SMU


-0.92




117


Charlotte


-0.93




118


Wyoming


-0.94




119


UTEP


-0.94




120


Arkansas


-0.97




121


Iowa State


-0.98




122


Kansas State


-0.98




123


San Jose State


-1.09




124


Louisville


-1.14




125


Rutgers


-1.14




126


Texas State


-1.15




127


UTSA


-1.18




128


Northern Illinois


-1.18




129


Central Michigan


-1.19




130


New Mexico State


-1.31




 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here are the conference rankings for the nine categories...

Passing Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Ohio State


1.85




2


Purdue


0.79




3


Indiana


0.47




4


Michigan State


0.28




5


Michigan


0.25




6


Wisconsin


0.22




7


Penn State


0.21




8


Northwestern


-0.12




9


Nebraska


-0.20




10


Iowa


-0.51




11


Minnesota


-0.66




12


Illinois


-0.68




13


Maryland


-0.85




14


Rutgers


-1.40







Passing Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Michigan


1.31




2


Indiana


1.01




3


Minnesota


0.90




4


Ohio State


0.76




5


Wisconsin


0.66




6


Penn State


0.52




7


Maryland


0.50




8


Iowa


0.44




9


Nebraska


-0.12




10


Purdue


-0.20




11


Rutgers


-0.21




12


Northwestern


-0.24




13


Michigan State


-0.36




14


Illinois


-0.76







Rushing Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Penn State


2.12




2


Maryland


1.57




3


Wisconsin


1.37




4


Illinois


0.86




5


Michigan


0.80




6


Ohio State


0.67




7


Purdue


0.35




8


Nebraska


0.27




9


Indiana


-0.06




10


Iowa


-0.34




11


Michigan State


-0.43




12


Minnesota


-0.46




13


Rutgers


-0.60




14


Northwestern


-0.76







Rushing Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Michigan State


1.96




2


Michigan


1.33




3


Iowa


1.22




4


Maryland


1.14




5


Wisconsin


0.63




6


Northwestern


0.51




7


Penn State


0.44




8


Minnesota


0.35




9


Ohio State


0.28




10


Indiana


0.15




11


Purdue


0.02




12


Nebraska


-0.40




13


Rutgers


-0.71




14


Illinois


-1.32







Scoring Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Penn State


2.39




2


Ohio State


2.35




3


Michigan


0.94




4


Maryland


0.63




5


Wisconsin


0.43




6


Purdue


0.12




7


Michigan State


-0.01




8


Indiana


-0.03




9


Minnesota


-0.33




10


Illinois


-0.58




11


Northwestern


-0.59




12


Nebraska


-0.74




13


Iowa


-0.92




14


Rutgers


-1.30







Scoring Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Iowa


1.58




2


Wisconsin


1.45




3


Michigan


1.41




4


Minnesota


1.12




5


Ohio State


0.98




6


Michigan State


0.86




7


Penn State


0.72




8


Indiana


0.71




9


Maryland


0.55




10


Purdue


0.28




11


Northwestern


0.24




12


Rutgers


-0.82




13


Nebraska


-0.95




14


Illinois


-0.96







Total Offense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Ohio State


1.62




2


Penn State


1.08




3


Purdue


0.88




4


Wisconsin


0.64




5


Illinois


0.31




6


Indiana


0.25




7


Nebraska


0.16




8


Michigan


0.01




9


Northwestern


-0.04




10


Maryland


-0.13




11


Michigan State


-0.20




12


Minnesota


-0.45




13


Iowa


-0.71




14


Rutgers


-1.25







Total Defense

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Michigan


1.70




2


Iowa


1.42




3


Minnesota


1.15




4


Wisconsin


1.15




5


Indiana


0.86




6


Maryland


0.80




7


Michigan State


0.67




8


Ohio State


0.48




9


Penn State


0.32




10


Northwestern


0.29




11


Nebraska


-0.18




12


Rutgers


-0.32




13


Purdue


-0.51




14


Illinois


-1.54







Turnover Margin

Rk     Team               Avg. Z-Score














1


Maryland


0.87




2


Ohio State


0.72




3


Wisconsin


0.71




4


Indiana


0.47




5


Illinois


0.43




6


Michigan


0.12




7


Penn State


0.08




8


Northwestern


-0.17




9


Purdue


-0.21




10


Michigan State


-0.22




11


Minnesota


-0.22




12


Iowa


-0.25




13


Rutgers


-0.81




14


Nebraska


-1.09







I'm thinking I should have just made one thread for each of these and kept adding to it all year so we could just scroll back up and see how the stats changed...

 
Huskers93-97 said:
Lets see the Z rating for a few ALL TIME TEAMS and how they rank. Lets put the Z to the test. Alabama has dominated the decade but his current team is the only one that belongs in that group below if they finish the year like they are playing now.

95 Huskers

01 Miami

04 USC

05 Texas

97 Huskers
Click to expand...


That's not a bad idea.  We can only measure how special a team was relative to the teams that were playing in the same seasons, of course.  I'm not sure I can find a database that already takes out the cupcake games then...  When I've done this kind of thing, it has generally been to compare Husker teams in the past.

 
beorach said:
Agreed!  At least they're largely better than last week's (at a glance, though I see Rutgers got past us in the final category for the B1G)...
Click to expand...
You could just consult the ESPN bottom 10. Rutgers at #7 and we’re included at #5 Arkansas Corn-Bruins. I’m not sure if being #5 is better or worse.

 
4skers89 said:
You could just consult the ESPN bottom 10. Rutgers at #7 and we’re included at #5 Arkansas Corn-Bruins. I’m not sure if being #5 is better or worse.
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I haven't read anything from the WWL in awhile.  It would seem that's for the best.

 
Z Score dont matter to the committee.  And if you dont matter to the committee you arent relevant.  Here is whats relevant:  Alabama with up to two losses.  Clemson with up to one loss.  Flashiest B12 team with best record. Maybe a B1G team  if it is Ohio St ( Urban) but if Ohio st gets beat twice then the B1G spot goes to the next best SEC Team. B1G champion be damned.

So to recap here are your 4 spots:

1.  Alabama (Saban says STOP ASKING especially about the subject of quitting on the Dolphins and lying)

2. Clemson bringing that airplane home on one engine

3. Hottest Big12 team running through that conference like crap through a goose.

4 Ohio St unless they have 2 losses then this spot belongs to the best SEC team other than Alabama.

Caveat:  Wisc is now recognized as a sentimental favorite so they might get in but I doubt it.

 
dvdcrr said:
Z Score dont matter to the committee.  And if you dont matter to the committee you arent relevant. 
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We can still bet on the rest of the college football games.  I like to know how our performances are measuring up relative to those of our neighbors and rivals, too.

As for the playoff we have, you seem pretty certain Notre Dame won't win out...

 
beorach said:
We can still bet on the rest of the college football games.  I like to know how our performances are measuring up relative to those of our neighbors and rivals, too.

As for the playoff we have, you seem pretty certain Notre Dame won't win out...
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At least the BCS had trust in the impartial computers.  Without the computers the 2001 Huskers would have been watching the NC game on TV.  

Football man dont know or care about math.

If Nebraska sits home in '01 would the next team up have done better against MIA?

 
dvdcrr said:
At least the BCS had trust in the impartial computers.  Without the computers the 2001 Huskers would have been watching the NC game on TV.  

Football man dont know or care about math.

If Nebraska sits home in '01 would the next team up have done better against MIA?
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You parrot that stats don't matter and then laud the BCS for having "trust in the impartial computers"?  Plenty of football players know about math, too, and it's not like this is quantum mechanics.  It's pretty much Statistics 101 fodder.

 
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