***Official 2023 College Football Thread***



Genuinely curious about translating/projecting AAC grades to the Big Ten. I don't think PFF specifically accounts for opponent quality in their grades - and that's fine, it's just how well you did your job. And I don't think they ding you much if you make a decent throw and a guy makes a freak play to pick it off. But this will be a big step up in defenses for Bryant and Mordecai.

Theoretically they also have a big upgrade in their surrounding cast, but that's absolutely not true if you look at the WRs at Cincinnati versus Northwestern. And Wisconsin brought in some talented guys, but they've had 2 5th round receivers and a 4th and 5th round TE the last 10 years. SMU has had 5 WRs drafted (two 2nds, a 3rd, 6th, and 7th) and a 6th round TE in that time, Mordecai specifically had one of the 2nd round receivers (Rice) and the TE (Calcaterra) during his time at SMU. Honestly expect both their grades to be lower this year, I don't think the improvement in surrounding cast outweighs the tougher defenses. Bryant didn't play against the only really good defense in the AAC because he was their QB, and Mordecai had pretty bad games against them.

 
Husker in WI said:
Genuinely curious about translating/projecting AAC grades to the Big Ten. I don't think PFF specifically accounts for opponent quality in their grades - and that's fine, it's just how well you did your job. And I don't think they ding you much if you make a decent throw and a guy makes a freak play to pick it off. But this will be a big step up in defenses for Bryant and Mordecai.

Theoretically they also have a big upgrade in their surrounding cast, but that's absolutely not true if you look at the WRs at Cincinnati versus Northwestern. And Wisconsin brought in some talented guys, but they've had 2 5th round receivers and a 4th and 5th round TE the last 10 years. SMU has had 5 WRs drafted (two 2nds, a 3rd, 6th, and 7th) and a 6th round TE in that time, Mordecai specifically had one of the 2nd round receivers (Rice) and the TE (Calcaterra) during his time at SMU. Honestly expect both their grades to be lower this year, I don't think the improvement in surrounding cast outweighs the tougher defenses. Bryant didn't play against the only really good defense in the AAC because he was their QB, and Mordecai had pretty bad games against them.
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Yeah, I'm sure there's really no way to do that explicitly.

But it would be accounted for because they grade higher for (in this case) making tougher throws.  That is, completing a pass to a wide open receiver (if the defense is bad) isn't graded as high as completing a pass to a well-covered receiver.  So some of that is probably inherent in how "good" each play is judged to be.

 
Husker in WI said:
Genuinely curious about translating/projecting AAC grades to the Big Ten. I don't think PFF specifically accounts for opponent quality in their grades - and that's fine, it's just how well you did your job. And I don't think they ding you much if you make a decent throw and a guy makes a freak play to pick it off. But this will be a big step up in defenses for Bryant and Mordecai.

Theoretically they also have a big upgrade in their surrounding cast, but that's absolutely not true if you look at the WRs at Cincinnati versus Northwestern. And Wisconsin brought in some talented guys, but they've had 2 5th round receivers and a 4th and 5th round TE the last 10 years. SMU has had 5 WRs drafted (two 2nds, a 3rd, 6th, and 7th) and a 6th round TE in that time, Mordecai specifically had one of the 2nd round receivers (Rice) and the TE (Calcaterra) during his time at SMU. Honestly expect both their grades to be lower this year, I don't think the improvement in surrounding cast outweighs the tougher defenses. Bryant didn't play against the only really good defense in the AAC because he was their QB, and Mordecai had pretty bad games against them.
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They played Arkansas, Louisville, Indiana, UCF and USF last season.  They lost by a touchdown to Arkansas and they beat Indiana. 

 
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suh_fan93 said:
They played Arkansas, Louisville, Indiana, UCF and USF last season.  They lost by a touchdown to Arkansas and they beat Indiana. 
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Right, I have two different sets of reasons really. 

Bryant: Will be playing with much worse skill talent - Cincy had 2 receivers and a TE drafted in rounds 3-5, and another receiver transferred to Wisconsin where he's already lined up to start. NW has had two late round RBs the past few years, but no other skill players drafted since 2012 and that streak ain't ending with the guys currently on the roster. That's the biggest piece of why I think he'll be worse. But the defenses are also tougher.









22 Cincy Opponents - 22 DEI Rank


23 NW Opponents - 22 DEI Rank




Arkansas - 54


Rutgers - 50




Kennesaw State - N/A


UTEP - 111




Miami (OH) - 88


Duke - 62




Indiana - 53


Minnesota - 18




Tulsa - 81


Penn State - 4




South Florida - 130


Howard - N/A




SMU - 100


Nebraska - 92




UCF - 61


Maryland - 35




Navy - 38


Iowa - 2




East Carolina - 85


Wisconsin - 21




Temple - 83


Purdue - 60




Tulane - 28


Illinois - 3




Lousiville - 14









 









Bryant didn't play against the 2 best defenses Cincy played (italicized), and while he did play well against solid Navy and Arkansas defenses it's just not the same ballpark. He'll get 3 of the top 4 in the country by this metric, and based on track record I'd expect Wisconsin to be higher this year. The average defense Cincy played last year was 68, and that goes down if you limit it to defenses Bryant played. The numbers won't translate directly but the average would be 41st for this year's opponents, and 5 of them will be higher than the best defense he played last year.

Mordecai: With their new transfer WRs, established RBs, and solid OL he's got more surrounding talent than he did at SMU. But still playing a much tougher gauntlet of teams:





22 SMU Opponents - 22 DEI Rank


23 Wisconsin Opponents - 22 DEI Rank




North Texas - 112


Buffalo - 66




Lamar - N/A


Washington State - 37




Maryland - 35


Georgia Southern - 126




TCU - 25


Purdue - 60




UCF - 61


Rutgers - 50




Navy - 38


Iowa - 2




Cincinnati - 34


Illinois - 3




Tulsa - 81


Ohio State - 9




Houston - 90


Indiana - 53




South Florida - 130


Northwestern - 55




Tulane - 28


Nebraska - 92




Memphis - 47


Minnesota - 18




BYU - 108


 









Last year's average rank was ~66th, this year it's ~47th. So not as big of a gap, and I believe in his surrounding talent more. But going from the 25th ranked defense as the best you play to dealing with 3 top-ten defenses is a jump. Mordecai was  a 57%, 8 TD to 7 INT passer against top-35 defenses as opposed to 71%, 25 TD to 3 INTs against everyone else.

I have too much time on my hands.

 
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