***Official Expert Predictions Thread: B1G Championship

I don't know anything about Phil Steele, other than the fact that he writes at a sixth grade level.

 
saunders45 said:
PHIL STEELE

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Since NU joined the Big Ten last year these teams have met twice with the home team 2-0. They met in the Big Ten opener on Sept 29th with the Huskers rallying from a 17 point deficit to win 30-27 with 24-17 FD and 440-295 yard edges. NU trailed 27-10 in the 3Q but scored 20 points on 4 straight poss while holding the Badgers in check (Game Recap). RB Ball lost his first career fumble at the UW49 which ended the Badgers final possession. Due to OSU and PSU’s post season bans UW clinched the spot in this game on Nov 10th with their huge 62-14 win over Indiana. Since then the Badgers are 0-2 losing to both the Bucks and Lions. UW tied both of those games in the final :20 of regulation on a td pass only to lose it in OT. QB Phillips (129 ypg, 53%, 4-1) has been steady with the job description basically to avoid TO’s and hand the ball off to the FBS’s new career td leader Ball (1593, 5.0).

UW’s top tackler LB Borland (hamstring) has missed the last 2 but is expected to return here to help a solid run D (111, 3.4) vs the Big Ten’s top offense. The Huskers clinched their spot in Indy with a 13-7 Black Friday win over Iowa. On a chilly day with wind gusts up to 40 mph NU trailed 7-3 at the break and didn’t take the lead until late 3Q thanks to the return of RB Burkhead (69, 4.3) who teamed with Martinez to give the Hawks a 200-108 rush yard edge. Big Ten pass eff leader Martinez (207, 63%, 21-8, 833 rush) has led five 2H comeback wins this year with his top target being big play threat Bell (789, 17.9). NU allows 166 rush ypg (4.2). Even though the Huskers clinched their spot in this game 2 weeks after the Badgers expect more NU fans to pack Indy as this has been considered a down season for Wisconsin after back-to-back Big Ten Titles while the Huskers have a chance to win their first league title since ‘99.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 27 NEBRASKA 24

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http://www.philsteel..._CChampt25.html
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If this is correct then that is a pretty impressive stat!

 
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1244656.html

What Will Happen: It’s so hard to win a rematch. Michigan State beat Wisconsin in heartbreaking fashion in the regular season last year, and the Badgers returned the favor in the Big Ten championship. Nebraska has been playing with fire all season long, and Wisconsin hasn’t found a way to get on the right side of the breaks over the last several weeks, but now the tables will turn.
It’s almost as if the Badgers have been in a holding pattern for the last few months. It’s not like they’re not trying to win, and it’s not like they don’t appear to be coming up with the maximum effort, but there hasn’t been the sense of urgency needed to come up with a stellar year. All the close losses were followed up by some sort of a comment about how all of the team’s goals were still in place, and this is it. Now the team is at the goal, and now is when the focused, effective effort will come.

Each team will try to be more physical than the other; the Badgers will win that battle. The bigger key, though, will be the +3 turnover margin that will carry Bucky to a third straight trip to L.A.

CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 27 … Nebraska 23 …

ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Nebraska -3 O/U: 49

Must Watch Rating (5 – Crossfire Hurricane, 1 – Comic Book Men: 4.5
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http://www.sportsnet...w.aspx?id=38704

Despite the Badgers' best effort, they are likely to come up just short of that third straight Rose Bowl bid. Expect the Huskers to make the plays they need to win this game, and win the Big Ten in just their second year in the league.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Nebraska 27, Wisconsin 24
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Wojeoifjoejofeski picks Wisconsin.....

Isn't WoJo exceeding his quota of God-given vowels ?

It's like he has secreted away a harem of Vanna Whites......

 
Scout said:
Each team will try to be more physical than the other; the Badgers will win that battle. The bigger key, though, will be the +3 turnover margin that will carry Bucky to a third straight trip to L.A.
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We heard this nonsense before with Penn State. Penn State was something like +8 on turnovers entering the game this year, and they ended up losing the turnover battle to us. But them being +8 didn't tell the story - they were that far in the black because they didn't turn the ball over, because they didn't play teams that aggressively pursued the ball. It wasn't that they were going out creating all these turnovers. That's such a crucial thing to notice that it baffled me that so many pundits missed the point.

Nebraska is -8 on the season in turnovers. Wisconsin is -1. Wiscy has 12 turnovers and 11 takeaways in 12 games. It's not like they go out and get all these turnovers. In fact, they average less than one turnover gained per game. Nebraska averages +1.5 turnovers per game - meaning we acquire more turnovers per game than Wiscy.

I don't see why "experts" like the guy at Scout can't grasp this. The stats are free and easily acquired at the NCAA website. Nothing in those stats says that Nebraska will be -3 in turnovers in this game. If they're basing their pick on that, that's a tremendously weak foundation to base it upon.

You can also look back at the game in Lincoln and see just how much Wiscy depended on those turnovers. We don't fumble the ball on the 23 and the 17 early in the first and second halves, respectively, and that wouldn't have been a game. We did, they punched in two short scoring drives, and that's a gift 14 points for the Badgers that there's no reason to presume we're going to give them again.

I don't mind if people pick Wisconsin to win. They have a 50/50 shot at winning this game, in my opinion. But to base it on something as unpredictable as gift turnovers turning into touchdowns.... I'm not buying that.

 
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GSG5545 said:
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1244656.html

What Will Happen: It’s so hard to win a rematch. Michigan State beat Wisconsin in heartbreaking fashion in the regular season last year, and the Badgers returned the favor in the Big Ten championship. Nebraska has been playing with fire all season long, and Wisconsin hasn’t found a way to get on the right side of the breaks over the last several weeks, but now the tables will turn.
It’s almost as if the Badgers have been in a holding pattern for the last few months. It’s not like they’re not trying to win, and it’s not like they don’t appear to be coming up with the maximum effort, but there hasn’t been the sense of urgency needed to come up with a stellar year. All the close losses were followed up by some sort of a comment about how all of the team’s goals were still in place, and this is it. Now the team is at the goal, and now is when the focused, effective effort will come.

Each team will try to be more physical than the other; the Badgers will win that battle. The bigger key, though, will be the +3 turnover margin that will carry Bucky to a third straight trip to L.A.

CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 27 … Nebraska 23 …

ATS Consultants Line (Click for more lines and picks) Nebraska -3 O/U: 49

Must Watch Rating (5 – Crossfire Hurricane, 1 – Comic Book Men: 4.5
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Ahh, CFN.

The epitome of butthurt this season.

 
Final AnalysisOne team has better players, has a better record and won the first meeting of the year. The other is missing its starting quarterback and has lost three of its last four. Pelini has won 10 games and played in a conference championship game in three of the last four years. However, his team has also lost four games in each of his four seasons in Lincoln. This weekend’s showdown would end all of those streaks and send the Huskers to Pasadena for only the third time in school history and would give Pelini his first championship. There are no excuses for Nebraska this time around.

Predictions

Braden Gall.....Nebraska, 30-20

Mitch Light....Nebraska, 24-14

Steven Lassan......Nebraska, 27-24

David Fox.......Nebraska, 28-14
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http://www.athlonspo...wisconsin-badge

 
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Did you know? Big Ten championship game

  • Nebraska gives up 152.2 pass yards per game, the fewest in the FBS this season. Two reasons for the Cornhuskers' success are they do not allow many yards after the catch and they do not allow downfield completions. They rank second among all BCS automatic-qualifying schools in yards after the catch allowed per game (54.2), and they lead the Big Ten in fewest completions allowed (22) on passes thrown 15 yards or longer.

  • Wisconsin is converting 33.5 percent of its third downs this season, tied for 104th in the FBS. Last season, the Badgers led the FBS in third-down conversion percentage (52.2). One difference has been in the passing game. Wisconsin is completing 45.5 percent of its third-down passes, tied for the eighth-lowest percentage in FBS. The Badgers led the nation in third-down completion percentage last season (71.7).

(I only picked a couple out)

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/66656/did-you-know-big-ten-championship-game

 
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