Why we win:
- Cousins may just as well wear concrete cleats to the game Saturday. Won't affect his mobility a bit. Pelini has absolutely DEMOLISHED immobile QB's throughout his career... see billdozer15's QB graveyard for proof.
- The supposed strength of MSU, their rushing attack, has been quite underwhelming. They're currently ranked 77th in the nation, which is good for DEAD LAST in the Big 10. Yeah, that's right, they're even behind Minnesota in that particular category. So, basically, their supposed heralded line and vaunted running back duo does not scare me.
- As good as Cousins is, from what I've picked up just this week from Sparty fans visiting our board, he makes some mind-numbingly poor decisions at the worst time for Michigan St. Here's hoping we can take advantage of one (or several) of those moments.
- Bo and Co. will have three full weeks to iron things out since the Ohio State game. Trust in them to have our boys ready to play, especially defensively.
- We seem to have our rock on the other side of the secondary, a 6'3" solid tackling man named Stanley Jean-Baptiste. Having another guy we trust to play corner besides Fonzie could do TONS for this defense.
- Speaking of the defense... They looked serviceable at the very least last weekend. Minnesota didn't score their points until after we had the game securely in hand (and perhaps had a let down of sorts, especially with the backups in).
- This team came out and played with their hair on fire last weekend. Another quick start would be absolutely huge vs. Sparty.
- Our offensive line has taken a lot of steps forward this year, and as by products of that, A) Our offense has looked good and B) I no longer wish to behead Barney Cotton and carry said head around on a pike as a warning to future O-Line coaches.
Why we could lose:
- By contrast. their passing offense is good for 3rd in the Big 10, at 43rd nationally. They're behind only Iowa and Wisconsin moving the ball through the air. Cousins has tossed for 1607 yards and 11 TD's to only 4 picks. He's probably neck and neck with Wilson for the best passer we have seen all year (he is the lesser if you're asking which is the better QB).
- This appears to be setting up as another "good on good" matchup for us, with the better of our two units, the offense, squaring off against the better of their two, the defense. Their defense, especially their line, is outstanding. However, when you look at the other matchup, our D vs. their O, I'm afraid at the moment we lose that battle. Our defense has shown flashes the last two games, but hasn't put together a complete game. Give me the 1st half of the Minnesota game and the 2nd of the Ohio State game, and you might have something. Things could change if our defense starts clicking. Also, the last time I thought a game was "good on good" was Ohio State, and we all saw how that started...
- Which leads me into my next point... for whatever reason, our boys seem to come out flat a lot of the time. It is a recurring theme at times under Bo.. Remember back to that first year ('08) when we were down to OU 35-0 before you could blink? We also came out uninspired again Mizzou that year, but those are a bit unfair because those were just far superior teams to our rebuilding one. But it happened again the next year, to Texas Tech, and of course this year to Ohio State. As many have alluded to, a fast start is perhaps the best thing we could do to fight our way to a win.
- Hate to say it, but we seem to have a record of falling just short and choking during big games:
2008: Va Tech (our big noncon game), Mizzou, Texas Tech (Joey's OT pick was painful to watch), OU
2009: Va and Tx Tech again and the Texas part 1
2010: Texas part 2 and again in the Big 12 title game against OU.
2011: Wisconsin
Every time we seem ready to take the next step... we tend to not be able to get out of our own ways, and fall on our faces.
Overall, lots of good and bad. I tend to see things through my red tinted glasses, so I think we have as good a shot as anybody would at knocking off a hopefully drained Sparty team this weekend. I have to admit, though, that what scares me most is not anything Sparty can do... it's trends we have seen our team display in the past. The coming out flat and coming up short in big game bits worry me... a fair amount.